Love this time of year. Winter is over and playoff pucks are about to begin.
After
a couple weeks off and waiting for the dust of the final regular season
games to settle. It looks like it's right back into the thick of it
tonight with three of the four series I want to concentrate on starting
tonight. And then BOS vs DET the last to kick off on Friday.
The
other 4 series (MIN vs COL,SJ vs LAK,NYR vs PHI and STL vs CHI) are
intriguing and could make for some great hockey. But due to injuries or
just being a super tight matchup I'm going to tread carefully on them to
start and not make any series plays just yet.
Love this time of year. Winter is over and playoff pucks are about to begin.
After
a couple weeks off and waiting for the dust of the final regular season
games to settle. It looks like it's right back into the thick of it
tonight with three of the four series I want to concentrate on starting
tonight. And then BOS vs DET the last to kick off on Friday.
The
other 4 series (MIN vs COL,SJ vs LAK,NYR vs PHI and STL vs CHI) are
intriguing and could make for some great hockey. But due to injuries or
just being a super tight matchup I'm going to tread carefully on them to
start and not make any series plays just yet.
The
first series play I'm going to make is on the HABS at -115. The BOLTZ
do have the advantage of home ice. But a win tonight or even a split
after the first two games in TB and the home ice is back in MON's hands.
Although I don't see that as being as big of an advantage as some other
series since both teams have similar records home and away.
For
me the clearest and largest advantage in this series is in the pipes.
This time of year a hot tender can make all the difference in the world
and there isn't a better one on earth right now than Price and it's been
that way for months.
He
already has an Olympic gold metal this year and his confidence should
be sky high and so should that be of the skaters in front of him. Who
know IF they do make a mistake they have a truly elite goalie behind
them to bail them out.
And
I know we've talked quite a bit about goaltenders and their true worth
and how they can be overrated at times and more a product of the team
defense being played in front of them. But some of these head to head
numbers are pretty lopsided.
Linback on the year had a less than impressive 8-12-2 record to go with a 2.90 gaa and lousy .891 save percentage.
Price
on the other hand was great owing a 34-20-5 record along with a 2.32
gaa and sharp .927 gaa.....which is actually .941 since February.
And
beyond the stats Price has proven to be as cool as they come and able
to handle the largest stage. While Lindback is still a question mark. He
did finish the final week of the regular season on a tear. But thats a
small sample size and wasn't under the conditions of these upcoming
games.
I
will admit I do have a slight concern about the special teams with MON
going 0-23 to end the season on the PP. The overall numbers on the year
are not that far apart with MON finishing 19th with a 17.2% PP and TB
only 6 spots better in 13th with an 18.5%. But TB missed Stamkos for the
majority of the year and will likely get a big boost from his return.
However
MON does have a similar edge when it comes to the PK. The HABS were 4th
overall this year killing off the man advantage 85.1% of the time.
While TB was in the bottom 3rd of the league in (23rd overall) with an
80.7% kill rate.
So
all things considered I think with a decided edge in the pipes and many
other facets of the game level,and the ability to steal back home ice
with a split over the first two games. MON at -115 is well worth a poke.
The
first series play I'm going to make is on the HABS at -115. The BOLTZ
do have the advantage of home ice. But a win tonight or even a split
after the first two games in TB and the home ice is back in MON's hands.
Although I don't see that as being as big of an advantage as some other
series since both teams have similar records home and away.
For
me the clearest and largest advantage in this series is in the pipes.
This time of year a hot tender can make all the difference in the world
and there isn't a better one on earth right now than Price and it's been
that way for months.
He
already has an Olympic gold metal this year and his confidence should
be sky high and so should that be of the skaters in front of him. Who
know IF they do make a mistake they have a truly elite goalie behind
them to bail them out.
And
I know we've talked quite a bit about goaltenders and their true worth
and how they can be overrated at times and more a product of the team
defense being played in front of them. But some of these head to head
numbers are pretty lopsided.
Linback on the year had a less than impressive 8-12-2 record to go with a 2.90 gaa and lousy .891 save percentage.
Price
on the other hand was great owing a 34-20-5 record along with a 2.32
gaa and sharp .927 gaa.....which is actually .941 since February.
And
beyond the stats Price has proven to be as cool as they come and able
to handle the largest stage. While Lindback is still a question mark. He
did finish the final week of the regular season on a tear. But thats a
small sample size and wasn't under the conditions of these upcoming
games.
I
will admit I do have a slight concern about the special teams with MON
going 0-23 to end the season on the PP. The overall numbers on the year
are not that far apart with MON finishing 19th with a 17.2% PP and TB
only 6 spots better in 13th with an 18.5%. But TB missed Stamkos for the
majority of the year and will likely get a big boost from his return.
However
MON does have a similar edge when it comes to the PK. The HABS were 4th
overall this year killing off the man advantage 85.1% of the time.
While TB was in the bottom 3rd of the league in (23rd overall) with an
80.7% kill rate.
So
all things considered I think with a decided edge in the pipes and many
other facets of the game level,and the ability to steal back home ice
with a split over the first two games. MON at -115 is well worth a poke.
The 2nd series play I like is PIT to get by the Jackers. But with a
price of -300 I'll be parlaying them to the DUCKS to roll over the
STARS. With the combined price of the two paying +105.
I
know there are a lot of concerns about Fluery after two years of brutal
performances in the playoffs,and rightfully so. But I think this a good
opportunity for him to exercise those demons and at least get through
this round.
Last year he struggled no doubt. But he was up
against a different monster. The ISLES were playing well and had some
good offensive players and were also able to suck PIT into playing an
wide open fast paced game with chances at both ends. And with the talent
NYI had on the ice they made the most of many of the chances.
But
this time around he'll be facing a more structured and lower scoring
CLB teams thats missing 3 key pieces in Foligno and them Umberger
(helper) for at least 1 game. And then one of their top offensive
threats in Nathan Horton for the rest of the year. And M.A.F's numbers
head to head with CBJ this year were also strong posting a 4-0 record
and allowing only 4 goals in the 4 meetings.
And PIT is also
getting healthy at the right time. They were decimated by injuries all
year but now finally have all of their top 6 d-men in the lineup
including what must have been a big boost to the locker room. Getting
Kris Letang back after he suffered a stroke earlier this season. As well
as Vokun on the bench should M.A.F start to have problems again.
Plus
up front they should also have former hart trophy winner Gino Malkin
back on the ice. But even with all the man-games lost for the PENS they
managed to own CLB this year. Outscoring them "by a decisive 16-7 margin
and trailed for only 56 seconds of the 300-minute span to win all five
meetings."
I won't go as far as to say the PENS continue the
sweep and go 9-0 vs CLB this year. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's
over in 5,6 at the most.
The 2nd series play I like is PIT to get by the Jackers. But with a
price of -300 I'll be parlaying them to the DUCKS to roll over the
STARS. With the combined price of the two paying +105.
I
know there are a lot of concerns about Fluery after two years of brutal
performances in the playoffs,and rightfully so. But I think this a good
opportunity for him to exercise those demons and at least get through
this round.
Last year he struggled no doubt. But he was up
against a different monster. The ISLES were playing well and had some
good offensive players and were also able to suck PIT into playing an
wide open fast paced game with chances at both ends. And with the talent
NYI had on the ice they made the most of many of the chances.
But
this time around he'll be facing a more structured and lower scoring
CLB teams thats missing 3 key pieces in Foligno and them Umberger
(helper) for at least 1 game. And then one of their top offensive
threats in Nathan Horton for the rest of the year. And M.A.F's numbers
head to head with CBJ this year were also strong posting a 4-0 record
and allowing only 4 goals in the 4 meetings.
And PIT is also
getting healthy at the right time. They were decimated by injuries all
year but now finally have all of their top 6 d-men in the lineup
including what must have been a big boost to the locker room. Getting
Kris Letang back after he suffered a stroke earlier this season. As well
as Vokun on the bench should M.A.F start to have problems again.
Plus
up front they should also have former hart trophy winner Gino Malkin
back on the ice. But even with all the man-games lost for the PENS they
managed to own CLB this year. Outscoring them "by a decisive 16-7 margin
and trailed for only 56 seconds of the 300-minute span to win all five
meetings."
I won't go as far as to say the PENS continue the
sweep and go 9-0 vs CLB this year. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's
over in 5,6 at the most.
I also like ANA not just on the series play but also in game 1 tonight.
But
If I have one concern it's that they like to take their foot off the
gas at times and then try to hit the switch when they need to and it
bites them in the really lower back/very high hamstring area.
They
did it last year in the first round against DET and because of it they
wasted a brilliant regular season. And then again here this year coming
down the stretch they repeatedly spotted teams 1 2 or even 3 goals
before waking up.
Now
they were good enough to come back in some of those cases. But the
level of competition is rising and although I don't believe they have to
be at their very best to beat the STARS. The DUCKS won't be making a
long run in an extremely deep and talented western conference unless
they come outta the gate flying and respecting their opponents.
Now
hopefully they learned their lesson and since the post season is
officially here they're ready to go from the opening draw tonight. And
if they are look out. They are the bigger,stronger,faster and more
experienced team and are so strong on home ice I just don't see an
albeit much improved DAL team taking them out by winning all 3 of their
home games PLUS one on the road.
So
for tonight I will not be going huge on ANA and just making a regular
sized play. But should they somehow drop tonights contest I will be
loading up on them in game 2 with the angle" being that there is no way
in hell DAL and their lame 17-20 road record go into ANA where the
QUACKERS are 29-8 at home and steal both of the first two games.
I also like ANA not just on the series play but also in game 1 tonight.
But
If I have one concern it's that they like to take their foot off the
gas at times and then try to hit the switch when they need to and it
bites them in the really lower back/very high hamstring area.
They
did it last year in the first round against DET and because of it they
wasted a brilliant regular season. And then again here this year coming
down the stretch they repeatedly spotted teams 1 2 or even 3 goals
before waking up.
Now
they were good enough to come back in some of those cases. But the
level of competition is rising and although I don't believe they have to
be at their very best to beat the STARS. The DUCKS won't be making a
long run in an extremely deep and talented western conference unless
they come outta the gate flying and respecting their opponents.
Now
hopefully they learned their lesson and since the post season is
officially here they're ready to go from the opening draw tonight. And
if they are look out. They are the bigger,stronger,faster and more
experienced team and are so strong on home ice I just don't see an
albeit much improved DAL team taking them out by winning all 3 of their
home games PLUS one on the road.
So
for tonight I will not be going huge on ANA and just making a regular
sized play. But should they somehow drop tonights contest I will be
loading up on them in game 2 with the angle" being that there is no way
in hell DAL and their lame 17-20 road record go into ANA where the
QUACKERS are 29-8 at home and steal both of the first two games.
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