How do we "cap" a 48 game season. A LanceLogan investigation

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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: How do we "cap" a 48 game season. A LanceLogan investigation
Lippsman PM Lippsman
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Posted: 1/7/2013 7:35:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:



John Quick was 35-21-13 last season, I doubt many units were won backing Jon Quick during the regular season. 

Quick isn't even cleared to play yet. His health is in serious question with such a short season. Also, don't be so focused on a goaltenders record. He has a 1.95 GAA and .929 save%. I will take that anyday. Take a look at most of his losses. It wasn't because he had a bad game, it was that the Kings could not score more than 2 goal in a game. BTW, if you add his OTL's, he was actually 35-35 LY !!!  
Lippsman PM Lippsman
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Posted: 1/7/2013 7:43:22 AM
I have to run out the door, but if someone wants to do the math, here is a log of the Kings games and the ones Quick started to find out how many units the Kings won with him starting last year. 

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/teams/pastresults/2011-2012/team23.html

Lippsman PM Lippsman
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Posted: 1/7/2013 7:46:27 AM
Here is a chart with just Quicks starts.  Make a bit more easy to calculate. 

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/logs/2011-2012/log2660.html
LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 2:14:17 PM
Damn near all the goaltenders on contending teams in the west have comparable gaa and sv% to Jon Quick. ESPN has the best breakdown stats.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/splits/_/id/3634/jonathan-quick
Dith PM Dith
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Posted: 1/7/2013 2:29:07 PM
its not only stats for a goalie, you have to consider what kind of shots the opp get etc.
OnlyGod PM OnlyGod
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Posted: 1/7/2013 2:37:03 PM
Yeah that was strange last year Ottawa dumped Elliot and goalies got way better than St Louis finishes 2nd in west with Elliot setting the tone.
whitepuma PM whitepuma
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Posted: 1/7/2013 3:19:40 PM

No way on hells earth Elliot repeats that performance,I dont see the Blues having much to give this year in all honesty.

I am actually willing to say the Canes finish with more points than the Blues

wiggins PM wiggins
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Posted: 1/7/2013 3:38:27 PM
Elliot and to some extent Halak as well clearly benefited from Hitchcock's system. Go look at all the goalies that played under Hitchcock they all had their best seasons (or close to it) under him. Steve Mason was actually decent and Pascal Leclaire had like 10 shutouts when Hitch was with CBJ. I think the same goes for Esche when he was with Philly.

People need to watch more games and focus less on stats. I am guilty of this too at times.

I don't think the Blues will regress. They are a young team. Pietrangelo is one of the most underrated dmen in the game. Oshie keeps getting better and if Chris Stewart and Berglund actually play close to their potential..watch out!
wiggins PM wiggins
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Posted: 1/7/2013 3:52:12 PM
If you are betting on the Habs to be improved you are betting on Andrei Markov to not only be healthy but return to his elite status. He is the difference maker.

Their top 9 is worse than it was last year with no Cammalleri and Kostitysn. AK was actually quite effective on the third line with Eller and Moen but the Habs have now brought in Prust and Armstrong so along with Ryan White and Moen that really isn't an impressive skilled group of guys on their bottom 6.

Does Galchenyuk get a look with the big boys? That is another uncertainty. Do the Habs go with another midget in their lineup with Gallagher? He might be the most ready offensive prospect the Habs have. Can Rene Bourque be more productive or will he remain useless? I am willing to give him a pass since the whole team was a mess last year.

Seems like too many question marks for this team this year. Oh and all this is with a new coach and god only know what to expect from him.


whitepuma PM whitepuma
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:26:57 PM

Cant see the Habs being any different from last season Imo

Leafs I can see having a very solid year and making the playoffs

I predict Preds,Blues & Kings to have a bad season

Thats the beauty of it all...Everything will be revealed

LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:38:33 PM
It looks like teams will play 30 conference games and 18 division games,,,,,,hhhmmmm.
whitepuma PM whitepuma
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:40:48 PM
Whats your take on that Lance?
spartak PM spartak
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:42:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whitepuma:

Cant see the Habs being any different from last season Imo

Leafs I can see having a very solid year and making the playoffs

I predict Preds,Blues & Kings to have a bad season

Thats the beauty of it all...Everything will be revealed

spartak PM spartak
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:45:56 PM

No mention of Pens, New York or Minnesota????

Just ride the pens until Crosby get's injured

LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 4:49:16 PM
I It's hard to say until the sked is released, 1st thought is the travel for  teams in the Atlantic and Northeast will be little more than a 1 hour bus ride, back to back games shouldn't be a issue or playing 4 games a week.
dino_2000_22 PM dino_2000_22
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Posted: 1/7/2013 5:14:27 PM
Bet the overs early on especially at 5.5 defence takes effort and will and not to many guys will have the stamina to be backchecking for 60 mins. 
Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 1/7/2013 5:16:37 PM
In Pekka Rinne I trust.
LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 7:27:53 PM
Damn rights In Pekka I trust Riceboi, especially at home. It looks like we don't get the sked untill the end of the week, with a compressed sked I think we can assume that most nights will be busy, which in theory could make for better parlay betting. Gonna look at weather it's possible to just ride the Rangers/Blackhawks/Preds and maybe a few others at home for a profit, and if Tampa Bay overs and St.Louis unders will continue to hit 66%.

Took a look at https://www.playnow.com/sports for the 1st time since october and the odds are the same as offshores now and round robin betting, read the bclc has taken a hit from the lockout.


pjm149 PM pjm149
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Posted: 1/7/2013 7:58:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

It looks like teams will play 30 conference games and 18 division games,,,,,,hhhmmmm.


Northwest could be in for a shake up....Minny has already shown they can hang with the big boys for at least half a season and for that matter so has Edmonton....Fortunately for them, it IS only half a season....
LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 8:15:45 PM
During the last 3 years roughly 24% of all regular season games went into OT and 14% were decided by shootouts, does this increase this year??

Yes the Wild will be a factor in the west, they'll have to do better than .500 vs the northwest though.
LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 9:42:32 PM
Topic #3- Teams playing on no rest.

There's not much to talk about here but a little diggin found a few goalies that thrive on this sh*t and a few not so much lasts season.

Corey Crawford   5-0  1.90gaa  .925sv%
Jimmy Howard    5-2   1.44gaa  .945sv%
Henrik Lundqvist  4-0-1  1.55gaa  .939sv%
Mike Smith   4-1-1  1.95gaa  .925sv%

Kari Lehtonen    0-3-1  3.15gaa  .890sv%
Steve Mason     1-5-2  4.13gaa   .877sv%
Evgeni Nabokov  0-3    4.90gaa   .803sv%
Ondrej Pavelic    0-5    3.28gaa   .892sv%

The Leafs, Pens and Flyers appear to be good over plays with no rest.

LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/7/2013 10:24:52 PM
Topic #4- Division Dominance

Last season the Rangers, Bruins. Nucks, Predators and Blackhawks hit 66% or better in division play. The Isles, BlueJackets hit the other way. could these teams go 12-6 in division play this year as well? If not who??

Albertcore PM Albertcore
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:29:22 PM
Nice thread bro


LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/8/2013 5:24:24 PM
Ok so every team plays 18 division and 30 conference games, 5 vs 2 division, 4 vs the other 2 division and 3 vs conference, I'll treat these as best of 3 or best of 5 series for both sides and totals. I'm precapping the top and bottom teams, maybe the middle of the pack a little later, .500 teams are .500 teams for a reason.

Albs 
LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 1/8/2013 5:34:53 PM
Boston Bruins

play on Monteal, Ottawa, Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, NY Islanders

play on @home Tampa Bay, Winnipeg

play against Buffalo, NY Rangers, Pitsburgh

play on overs Buffalo, Ottawa, Toronto, NY Islanders, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia
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