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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: How do we "cap" a 48 game season. A LanceLogan investigation
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#1
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:04:46 PM
Topic #1- Goaltending

It's no secret in the NHL if ya ain't got good goaltending ya aint got sh*t. One would think teams with a 1a/1b system would have an edge teams that have this could include

Ottawa- Craig Anderson is the defacto #1 but with Ben Bishop(8-3-1 2.66gaa .928sv%) and Robin Lehner(13-4-1 1.83gaa .946sv%) tearing sh*t up in the minors one of these guys will push Anderson for playing time and might take over as #1 if Anderson starts the season rusty as f*ck.

Washington- Both Holtby( 12-11-1 2.14gaa .933sv%) and Neuvirth( 11-13 2.46gaa .927sv%) have seen plenty of action and I could see these guys alternate starts to start the season.

New Jersey- This may get ugly It's hard to imagine both these pushing 40 guys not being rusty and out of game shape, maybe a 60/40 split for Brodeur, just a guess.

St.Louis- Halak and Elliot but it's depends on if Elliot can repeat last years form and if Halak doesn't repeat last years poor start.

Vancouver- The whole Lou thing may wind up with him playing in Vancity this year, he has a no trade and may insist on Florida, sh*t this might play out with him getting bought out and becoming a ufa, regardless if he stays that's a hell of a 1b if Schneider can't keep up playing 4 games a week or whatever the sked works out to, also note the Nucks travel more than anybody. 


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#2
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:10:16 PM
Great thread LL. This reminds me of the NBA last season where it seemed a lot of great capers garbage the bed, which was seemingly directly related to the shortened season and the unfamiliar schedule it provides. There's a lot to take into account, such as teams with a lot of new players on their roster, goalie rotations, veteran teams, etc. There will certainly be some interesting angles to side with regarding match ups.
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#3
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:17:57 PM
Play on goaltenders that has games under there belt already?

Tukka Rask- 6-2 1.85gaa .936sv%

Ben Scrivens- 14-7-1 2.22 gaa .917sv%, this guy should start ahead of Reimer unless the Leafs make a trade in the next week.

Ilya Bryzgalov- 6-5 2.13gaa .913 sv%

Semyon Varlamov- 8-4-3 1.74gaa .946sv%, this guy might be a solid play on and could be a major unit maker, unlike top tier goalies he won't be overjuiced as a fave.

Sergei Bobrovsky- 17-3-2 2.03gaa .928sv%, had to double check this sh*t but it appears that Sergei had the KHL by the balls.

Pekka Rinne- 9-11-2 3.08gaa .897sv%, average numbers but should be good to go, could be a early play on goaltender with that Preds D in front of him again.


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#4
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:23:55 PM
Am I right to assume teams in the Eastern conference won't have to play outside their time zone with the exception of Winnipeg? I wonder if this will make for strong over/under trends.
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#5
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:33:59 PM
Winnipeg will experience a huge disadvantage again this year. I certainly expect this to be a serious factor as the shortened season proceeds. The amount of travel they're forced to endure is far greater than the league average, and it's tough to think that this won't be a negative factor surrounding this team.
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#6
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:39:20 PM
if my mind is right, toronto usually starts fine, maybe a short season is what they need to make 1-8
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#7
Posted: 1/6/2013 6:43:11 PM
With the exception of trips to Florida I disagree with this, common sense would say road games to TB, Miami and Raleigh will be on the same trip, all other games are in the northeast. They actually might find themselves at home facing tired road teams quite often this year.
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#8
Posted: 1/6/2013 7:22:56 PM
I remember I won my hockey pool with a short season. Can't remember if there were some big teams who missed the playoffs due to the shortened season. Anybody messing with NHL futures?
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#9
Posted: 1/6/2013 7:31:46 PM
Interesting futures odds, Rangers @ 8.50 is worth a look.
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#10
Posted: 1/6/2013 7:47:34 PM
The oilers may have an edge for the 1st 10-15 games as there top line has played on the smaller ice in the ahl, dont know if any other teams had an entire 1st line playing together.
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#11
Posted: 1/6/2013 8:05:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

Am I right to assume teams in the Eastern conference won't have to play outside their time zone with the exception of Winnipeg? I wonder if this will make for strong over/under trends.

Heard Winnipeg plays west and Columbus plays east

Edmontons young guns in OKC have been lighting it up,

NHL power-play ready to go, New kid Schultz chose Edm over Van cant blame him

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#12
Posted: 1/6/2013 8:06:29 PM

a lot of talk about goaltenders and NO mention of Jonathan Quick? he had a 1.95 Gaa and .929 save % in the regular season followed by a 1.41 Gaa and .946 in the playoffs. Oh, and he WON the Conn Smythe Trophy for leading his team to the Stanley Cup  

AND unless he falls on his butt this short season, I would expect a repeat of last year. the Kings have the players at ALL positions to do it again.

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#13
Posted: 1/6/2013 8:08:17 PM
I think the Oilers  may be an early over team for that reason as well as a average D and goaltending. Backstrom and Ovie have been playing together in the KHL, Briere and Giroux in Germany.
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#14
Posted: 1/6/2013 8:22:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

a lot of talk about goaltenders and NO mention of Jonathan Quick? he had a 1.95 Gaa and .929 save % in the regular season followed by a 1.41 Gaa and .946 in the playoffs. Oh, and he WON the Conn Smythe Trophy for leading his team to the Stanley Cup  

AND unless he falls on his butt this short season, I would expect a repeat of last year. the Kings have the players at ALL positions to do it again.



John Quick was 35-21-13 last season, I doubt many units were won backing Jon Quick during the regular season. 
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#15
Posted: 1/6/2013 9:40:27 PM
copy&paste http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJVC8JibzYE&feature=youtu.be, LL
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#16
Posted: 1/6/2013 9:51:03 PM
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#17
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:09:51 PM
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#18
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:03:13 AM
alot of thing to factor! (what i learned from the nba)

1. Amount of players on the team that have been playing in Europe, so there ready to play
2. Age of teams, certain players won't do well, i personally thing (iggy, philly d man (forgot his name) etc..)
3. TRAVEL on b2b2b! im certain each team will have a b2b2b for the season or 3 games in 4 night
4. a lot of underdogs win especially EARLY on!
5. younger teams (edm, leafs, Colorado) will have such an advantage.
6. LEFTWINGLOCK.com ...there will be alot of substitute goalies


7. NO MORE BETTING NBA !! NHL IS BACK!
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#19
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:30:46 AM
Topic #2- First year head coaches

A whole week to get your sh*t together before the season starts, this list includes.

Bob Hartley Calgary- A quick look at Calgarys roster and it would appear Hartley will have little choice but to lean on Kipper and the 1st line of Tanguay, Cammalleri and Ignila. Possible hotshot Roman Cervenka developed blood clots while playing in the khl and won't be ready for camp.

Ralph Kreuger Edmonton- Has been the assistant coach since 2010, knows the players, knows the system, shouldn't be much of a transition from Tom Renny. It doesn't hurt his top guns are in game shape already, goaltending is a question mark.

Michel Therion Montreal- I have no idea why this guy was recycled, maybe because he speaks french. Jeesus this team did nothing to improve and will rely on Carey Price to keep them in games
 
Adam Oates Washington- This hall of fame forward was an expert of setting up goals, in Washington that means feeding Ovie the puck, sucks for him that Backstrom got hurt in the KHL and may not be ready to start the season, this Caps team ain't got the scoring depth it used to, lucky for him the Caps play in a weak division and have 2 capable goalies.


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#20
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:54:11 AM
I dunno Lance, I kinda see Montreal bouncing back after a dissapointing season last year
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#21
Posted: 1/7/2013 1:10:48 AM
I hope so Metaldude5 but they might be the lowest scoring team in the league this year, will a Habs forward average more than .75 pts a game?

Dig old school heavy sh*t

http://youtu.be/VKSEMhUapuM
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#22
Posted: 1/7/2013 1:12:06 AM
Haha metaldude i can see the habs grabbing 7th or 8th place!!
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#23
Posted: 1/7/2013 1:19:54 AM
Being a habs fan let me tell you having a healthy d this year will be a big key to the teams success
not only is markov finally back but he has been playing in russia with emelin and is alredy in game shape which is a bonus
Then factor in the rest of them having the leading shotblocker josh gorges, explosive subban, and the last line with 2 of these 3 kaberle bouillon or diaz should make my boys solid on the back end
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#24
Posted: 1/7/2013 2:23:20 AM
And for those of us that completely forgot who plays where and with who!

http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/nhl.aspx
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#25
Posted: 1/7/2013 5:56:20 AM
Admire you guys interest. Myself,I could care less about this down trodden sport. LIving in Philly its a popular game but I won't look at this fallacy of a season this year.
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