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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: NHL Monday
Polar_Bear
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#1
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:59:59 PM
10-12 +7.19

Sens +110 3 units

 Caps +110 3 units
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#2
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:00:52 PM
BOL PB!
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Polar_Bear
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#3
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:07:23 PM
10-12 +7.19

Sens +110 3 units
Caps + 110 3 units
Bruins/Caps Over 5 -115 3 units
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vegasdennis
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#4
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:07:24 PM
 GL bear
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#5
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:11:18 PM
The Capitals playing defence.....who knew? Good luck bear
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#6
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:20:13 PM
I think the verbal abuse will have the rags fired up...
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#7
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:26:41 PM

GL BUD

 

 

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CanadaCup
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#8
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:34:28 PM

PB the first two games in Boston were under 5 and a real goaltending dual. How come you see it going over tonight? BOL

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#9
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:38:57 PM
SENS
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#10
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:46:44 PM
GL Bear
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#11
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:54:14 PM
Caps and Sens

Why the over in the Caps game though? Teams combined for 4 goals in 2 games...
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Polar_Bear
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#12
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:25:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

PB the first two games in Boston were under 5 and a real goaltending dual. How come you see it going over tonight? BOL

The Capitals play a more open style at home as opposed to the tighter checking one they play on the road. The Bruins play a more open style on the road as compared to the tighter checking one they play at home.

The Over is 21-8-2 in the Bruins last 31 road games.
The Over is 7-1 in the Capitals last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

I like to play on what I call mirrored or contrasting trends such as the one above and another example would be the two below.

 The Over is 20-7-2 in the Bruins last 29 games after ALLOWING 2 goals or less in their previous game.

The Over is 7-3 in the Capitals last 10 games following games where they have SCORED 2 goals or less.

Both these bet positive trends were bucked in game 2 which means the percentages of them both failing for the second game in a row lessens a great deal.

The Over is 6-1 in the Bruins last 7 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150.

The Over is 7-3-1 in the Capitals last 11 playoff games as an underdog.

Now ofcourse with the way Holtby and Thomas have been playing, I am no doubt playing with fire here. However with the abundance of skilled firepower on both sides I don't expect both sides to be shutdown forever. I am expecting the intensity/nasty level to rise in this series tonight as well, providing us with more odd man opportunities. I am expecting both teams to crash the net and try to create some dirty goals. I just need a 2-2 tie here at some point to insure my money and I'm feeling both teams can provide me with at least a couple of goals tonight.

Only time will tell if Thomas and/or Holtby will allow any of this to come to fruition for me.



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#13
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:36:22 PM
i was leaning the same way at first glance, but your write up n trends put me over the fence, thanks for the work bol tonight 
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#14
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:36:56 PM
Good luck PB
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#15
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:39:31 PM
Senators Brotha!

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Polar_Bear
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#16
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:43:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

I think the verbal abuse will have the rags fired up...
I get that, but I'm pretty sure some punk kid throwing a dirty elbow to the head of their veteran star player and face of their franchise will have the Senators pretty fired up too.

The Rangers tried to bully the Sens. That ain't gonna happen and quite frankly I think it was a bad route to take. I liked the Rangers to take this series kind of easy until I saw what went on in game 2. The Rangers choosing to play that way instead of just using their superior talent, did nothing but play right into the Senators hands, and therefore gave them a fighting chance if you will.

The Senators had a guy go seek out the biggest son of a girl on the ice he could find and beat him into submission like red headed step child. The Rangers had a guy go seek out a tiny built star veteran player and throw a dirty, cheap shot elbow to his head.
One of those is grown man stuff.

The Rangers are a very tough team but they have put themselves in a dog fight now, with a team that can play with them. I'll take the plus money with the home side in what should be toss up game. If they beat me so be it.
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#17
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:44:14 PM

Great insight PB  

Thanks

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Polar_Bear
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#18
Posted: 4/16/2012 5:44:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jerzeyboy56:

i was leaning the same way at first glance, but your write up n trends put me over the fence, thanks for the work bol tonight 
Don't do anything based on me brother. I'm just an old timer trying to carve out a buck...
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#19
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:03:24 PM
GL Tonight PB 
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#20
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:08:47 PM

gl tonight bear

 

any thoughts on  rangers over??

thanks

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#21
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:11:13 PM
wow ur actually betting on the ottawa BUMS
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thehuntman
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#22
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:17:18 PM

Good thread PB 

GL Tonight 

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#23
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:23:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

The Capitals play a more open style at home as opposed to the tighter checking one they play on the road. The Bruins play a more open style on the road as compared to the tighter checking one they play at home.

Both these bet positive trends were bucked in game 2 which means the percentages of them both failing for the second game in a row lessens a great deal.

The Over is 6-1 in the Bruins last 7 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150.

The Over is 7-3-1 in the Capitals last 11 playoff games as an underdog.

Now ofcourse with the way Holtby and Thomas have been playing, I am no doubt playing with fire here. However with the abundance of skilled firepower on both sides I don't expect both sides to be shutdown forever. I am expecting the intensity/nasty level to rise in this series tonight as well, providing us with more odd man opportunities. I am expecting both teams to crash the net and try to create some dirty goals. I just need a 2-2 tie here at some point to insure my money and I'm feeling both teams can provide me with at least a couple of goals tonight.

Only time will tell if Thomas and/or Holtby will allow any of this to come to fruition for me.





I was curious as to what was going on myself, but according to Claude Julien, his side is having a real difficulty with the defensive play of Washington. I've seen Washington play this defensive style a number of times, and they're going to keep playing it with Holtby in net. The puzzling thing for me is that a team like Buffalo was able to just go at Holtby full throttle, and I'm thinking Boston should be able to do the same, but with Washington having won game 2, I think we'll see the defensive gridlock again. Boston certainly has the tools to play Washington's game as long as they don't fall behind in the series.
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#24
Posted: 4/16/2012 6:43:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Don't do anything based on me brother. I'm just an old timer trying to carve out a buck...


How does an old timer feel about the game out West? 
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#25
Posted: 4/16/2012 7:02:02 PM
GL tonight brother
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