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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Over/Under Mathematically based
pgsj23 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:18:23 PM
-LeRinkRat

The numbers for Tononto/Buffalo are somewhat favorable to betting the Over 5.5....Its probably the 5th best game to bet.....  Betting the over is the only play for that game
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#27
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:20:51 PM
-covermylosses

I'll post my MLB picks in the MLB forum, probably like 2-3 weeks after the season starts. After all the pitchers get at least 3 starts, you get more reliable data
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#28
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:29:55 PM
what about blue jackets under? their new goalie is on fire nd they themselves only avg 2 points on the road
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#29
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:42:30 PM
-Jamessponce

-Yeah I definitely like Columbus/Phoenix Under 5.5 Goals....I forgot to look at that game earlier......I would rate it the 3rd best game to bet tonight....The numbers really look good for UNDER 5.5 goals
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#30
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:44:06 PM
****Gotta make a correction

April 3rd, 2012

Best Game to Bet
Carolina/Ottawa OVER 5.5 Goals

Second Best Game to Bet
Florida/Winnipeg OVER 5 Goals

Third Best Game to Bet
Columbus/Phoenix UNDER 5.5 Goals

Fourth Best Game to Bet
NY/Rangers OVER 5 Goals

****If your bookie gives you Pittsburgh/Boston at Over/Under 5.5 Goals instead of Over/Under 6 Goals.....betting this game OVER 5.5 would be your best Bet
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#31
Posted: 4/3/2012 5:53:24 PM
any time partner
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#32
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:20:31 PM
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#33
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:28:16 PM
Ouch - went with your top play. Cam Ward was just too hot tonight 
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#34
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:36:25 PM
Yeah Cam Ward was ridiculous tonight, only allowed 1 goal on 39 shots on the road.....only pick not to come thru.....
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#35
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:52:55 PM
Very well done PG!  Your system seems to be very reliable.  Would you break done your mathematics, so we can calculate ourselves.  Once again congrats on your stellar system! 
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#36
Posted: 4/4/2012 12:45:31 PM
Great system! Any picks for tonight?
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#37
Posted: 4/4/2012 12:51:00 PM
hoping to see your pick for detroit vs blues tonight. im leaning UNDER but always look for insight from you
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#38
Posted: 4/4/2012 1:21:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pgsj23:

Yeah Cam Ward was ridiculous tonight, only allowed 1 goal on 39 shots on the road.....only pick not to come thru.....

OUCH!!! Canes-Sens the ONLY loser in 5 team "wildass" parlay Sens score 5 @ Nassau. fall on their butt @ home. Freeking Ward

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#39
Posted: 4/4/2012 1:51:21 PM
There doesn't seem to be any good games to bet tonight.....I would stay away from the Tampa/Montreal game, the numbers project that game to be exactly 5.5 goals.......The numbers slightly point to that Detroit/St.Louis game going UNDER, but I doubt I'm gonna put money on it......Elliot is gonna be in net for St.Louis tonight. He has been lights out this year and hasn't allowed a goal in his last 3 starts........In the 5 games Detroit and St.Louis has played this year, only one has went over 5 goals.....On the other hand, Detroit could put a lot of goals on the board, and they allow on average 3 goals per game on the road......
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#40
Posted: 4/4/2012 3:35:17 PM
In the Tampa/Montreal game, Carey Price will not be starting, does that change you opinion on that game going over, Price not playing is a huge loss.
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#41
Posted: 4/4/2012 3:58:03 PM

.....I would stay away from the Tampa/Montreal game

I agree

my initial thought was an "auto-over" BUT IF you look at both Sebastien Caron and Peter Budaj recent numbers, that OVER is really pretty "iffy" AND the Habs haven't been scoring for beans lately 
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#42
Posted: 4/4/2012 4:00:02 PM
-Covermylosses

I ran the numbers on the tampa/Montreal game after I got both teams goalie confirmation.....I had seen that Budaj was in net instead of Price....The problem with that game is that Caron is in net for Tampa Bay. He has only had one start this year, and before that he had not started since 2006-2007.....You really don't know what your gonna get with Caron in net tonight......
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#43
Posted: 4/5/2012 2:11:13 PM
A whole bunch of games on tap tonight, what looks good?

I like Buffalo/Philadelphia Over 5.5

        Montreal/Carolina    Over 5.5
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#44
Posted: 4/5/2012 2:30:42 PM
Top 5 Best Games based on the Numbers

1st) Chicago/Minnesota OVER 5
2nd) San Jose/LA Kings UNDER 5
3rd) Columbus/Colorado UNDER 5.5
4th) Anaheim/Edmonton UNDER 5.5
5th) Florida/Washington OVER 5
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#45
Posted: 4/5/2012 4:40:48 PM
Keep it up!
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#46
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:21:22 PM
Looking like a rough day for the system, and of course the play I don't make hits, #5.

Maybe I should double down on SJ/LA UNDER and chase my losses....
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#47
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:27:25 PM
-Sorry I didn't get this out sooner, but with Mason in net, instead of York, The Columbus/Colorado game is a no play.....Mason allows 3.43 GAA, while York allows 2.30 GAA.....The other four plays were still a go
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#48
Posted: 4/6/2012 3:18:02 AM
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#49
Posted: 4/7/2012 2:51:34 PM
April 7th, 2012

Carolina/Florida OVER 5
NY Islanders/Columbus OVER 5.5
Toronto/Montreal OVER 5.5

-Just a quick note, I look at a lot of numbers for every game....You should use it to confirm the game you want to bet...Such variables as injuries, and back to back games, are not taken into account when I run the numbers. You cant really quantify what a player means to his team.....For example, for tonight Islanders/Columbus game, if you know that Tavares and Nash will be out for their respective teams, you wouldn't bet the game, although the number project that game going over 5.5 goals.....My number system takes no injuries into account....you should use it confirm your own picks
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#50
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:20:17 PM
April 11th, 2012

1) Philadelphia/Pittsburgh OVER 5.5

2) Detroit/Nashville OVER 5

3) Vancouver/LA OVER 5
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