Boston -3,5 must be a great bet right? Writeup inside (Game 2).

Some people here are SHOCKED that the bookies have actually LOWERED the spread for game 2 instead of making it higher. "Like they expect a better effort from the Pistons".

of course they expect a better effort.

These are the facts:

*Detroit FG (38%)
*Detroit was outrebounded, outhustled, Boston with more assists
*Rasheed shoots what,3/12 from the floor?
*Billups a non factor
*Pistons bench a non factor
*Hamilton had a horrid game
*The only player who will probably offer less in game 2 than game 1 was Antonio McDyess. Look for everyone else to improve.

The Pistons are down by ONE at half and at minus six in the 4th quarter.

And Boston supposedly played GREAT, shooting 52%, everyone contributing sans Ray Allen.

The Pistons have A LOT more to give in game 2. They have room to improve their performance. Boston can hardly say the same.

Provided Chauncey was rusty and isn't crippled due injury, you will see a much better Detroit team in game 2. I don't think the Celtics can beat that team.

The Celtics are 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs but against the worst team to have reached the playoffs this season, the Hawks, and a horribly coached Cavs.

They were also down against the Cavs. They also can't count on Garnett to step up consistently, he will have 1 great game out of 2, but won't 'take over the series' like some big players do. He needs support.

This Boston team is carried by Pierce right now, since Allen is missing in action.

The thing that will change compared to game 1 is the fact that the Pistons will shoot better, you won't see Hamilton pushing the tempo the way he did in the 3rd quarter...

I'm not saying Detroit necessarily wins, I'm saying Boston -3,5 is hardly a great bet at this point. These Pistons have been battle tested in the postseason, they've been proven warriors both at home and on the road throughout the years, this Boston team is full of liabilities.

I LOVE the fact that everyone is high on Boston right now after game 1, even though they were TIED at half (up by 1) despite playing MUCH better than Detroit. When a team is outplayed in such a manner and loses the game thanks to one inspired quarter by the opposing team, you do not take that team again.

Continue drinking "Celtics 9-0 SU at home" kool aid, that's nothing new in sports betting. People remember the last game, maybe one before, but that's it.

It's interesting how most touts look at the Spurs today. "The lack of rest didn't affect Boston yesterday, why would it affect the Spurs?"

EXACTLY what I'm talking about. People remember the LAST GAME and draw conclusions from there. No sound analysis, no unbiased reasoning. Just knee jerk reactions.

Take it as you wish. Btw, a small note: I'm not a Pistons fan. I put this avatar on since I think the Pistons are the better team here and will go through, but I couldn't give a rats ass about any NBA team.


I'm looking at a Detroit ML bet for game 2, for a unit. Still haven't pulled the trigger. Will update this thread when I do.

Good luck.

Good point. From what I hear, the touts are ALL OVER the Spurs.

I have Boston (-3) at my local and will probably take it..

coming from a Boston fan, not a surprise. You just go on. Just like you did in those road games in Atlanta.

Every argument has a flip side. I'm not doing comparisons and basing my plays on that. What I am doing is dismissing arguments that say "the Celtics are unbeatable at home, wow what an accomplishment".

I disagree. They needed seven games twice. Detroit will wake up for game 2.

trying to be 'sharp' at all cost. This is a horrid spot for SA.

Boston fan or not....Celts are 6-3 ATS and 9-0 at home in the postseason....you can write a novel on how you should take the Pistons....its a stupid bet, if anything play the Pistons when they head home, you know they'll at least cover one or two there...why risk your money on a bet thats been a proven loser...3.5 is the lowest spread the Celts have laid at home all postseason, they'd be 9-0 ATS if all the spreads were this low.

HOMER or no HOMER....Boston is the obvious play, stop bucking the trends that are making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Boston did play great...only reason why the score was closer than the play was the free throws.  Detroit had a 14 to 3 advantage early on which kept them alive.  Celtics match up too well against Detroit...I'll probably ride them again at home.

"I'm not saying Detroit necessarily wins, I'm saying Boston -3,5 is hardly a great bet at this point."

"I'm looking at a Detroit ML bet for game 2, for a unit."

First this board heard how the Pistons would win Game 1 because Boston was tired. Now the Pistons will play "better". Can they play better? Detroit is now 1-3 straight up this season vs the Celtics and their win was a GIFT. Detro9it has problems SCORING vs the Celtics. How can you expect the Pistons to beat a "fresh" Celtics team when they couldn't beat a "tired" Celtics team. Detroit is 0-5 their last 5 Eastern Conference Finals games.
Sorry but your on the wrong team.

Yes, you see, you are so used to the usual discourse of this board, which involves huge letters, colors, "locks", "GOYs", "GOMs", etc...that you can't recognize a constructive post when you see it.

I said, I personally think that the fact that Boston is favored by 3.5 (as opposed to 4.5 in game 1) does mean the Pistons should play better, and it's no coincidence.

A large part of the board thinks (and I'm not counting these homers here, who post huge "GO CELTICS YEAAAAH WE WIN EVERYTHING THIS SEASON" idiocies everywhere) that the Celtics have Detroit "all figured out".

I don't think they do. I think Detroit played their worse possible game, and still had a shot at the cover in the 4th. Still had -1 at half.


So I said, I am LOOKING at making a Detroit ML play, based on:

>team info (Billups)
>line movement
>further thinking


Instead of valid counter arguments (I thank those who did make some, they will know who they are) I get HOMERISM.

I don't care about that. I don't care how Boston fans want to justify their plays for game 2. Is there any chance these people would like Detroit in game 2 no matter what? No there isn't, because they want to cheer for their team and have a bet on them to go along the way.


I don't. I can bet Boston if the situation is right. Respectfully, I think Boston isn't a good play in game 2. I may be wrong, in which case I will gladly shake the hand of a handicapper that took the Celtics.

Note: A HANDICAPPER. not a fan.

Again. Listen buddy. I'm here to share my thoughts regarding CAPPING GAMES. You see, I have been doing this for years now, some were great, some were only acceptable, but none of them were bad.

And you know why? Because I wasn't drinking any team's kool aid. You are drinking the Celtics kool aid right now, because you like the team and want them to succeed.

You will hardly accept any arguments that say the line maybe isn't favoring the Celts, or how the spot isn't good.

No.

You will just repeat "9-0 at home, yeah Celtics all the way". Because you couldn't stand not betting on your favorite team.

Now please son, please. Tell me, how can I take you seriously?

Keep pounding those Celts, fire away. Just like you did in Atlanta, 3 times, just like you did in Ohio.

6-3 ATS against horrid opposition. Yes, Detroit were horrid too. Cavs are basically uncoached, a one man team.

Your team does not resemble the one that went 66-16 in regular season. Not right now. Fatigue, mental and physical, is getting to them.

It wasn't visible in game 1 of the ECF, but it could come out in the remainder of the series.

I'm a situational bettor. I could be pounding the Celtics next week. See, I'm constantly on the move, thinking, trying to outwit the man, trying to make profit here and there. You can't switch sides. No matter what happens, you will be chasing people around in their threads trying to make a case for the Celtics. THROUGHOUT THE SERIES.

And you know why? Because you need to convince yourself.

I'm not trying to break the bank or win a huge bet just to be able to come back afterwards saying:

"$$$$$$$$$$$$"

I don't do that. I've hit several bets already in the playoffs, never came back to a thread tooting my own horn.

Not something a delusional fan like you understands.

Yes, and you are on the right one. I can see from your avatar. Don't use the same rhetorics on me because I put this avatar on for kicks.

You put yours because you love those Boston teams. Keep thinking Boston -3,5 (the fact that the spread is lower as opposed to higher) is a "GIFT".

Your way of thinking is extreme. Similar to your friend Robbie there, I can see you making a case for the Celtics throughout the postseason.

Me? I could be backing them when the time is right, same as I can fade them.

You don't have that commodity, your wagering life in the playoffs is going to come down to justifying your bets on Boston.

Btw, regular season is irrelevant at this point. The Celtics went 31-10 on the road throughout the regular season only to go 0-6 ATS in the playoffs.

Note the discrepancy without trying to make a dumbfounded argument against it.

if you think based on what has happened so far in the playoffs in the confines of the Boston Garden, which for Boston equates to -0- losses that the pistons are a smart pick getting a measley 3.5 points with a hobbled chauncey billups you need to seek therapy....if you were gloating about betting detroit at home, well obviously with the way things have gone on the road for Boston i'd see it another way....you can bring up the 3 road losses to Atlanta, and the tough Cavs series (which Boston actually finished off both teams FYI) all you want...its a new series and the Celts are up 1-0....I told u before Boston fan or not looking at all the variables that does not look to be a smart investment.

.....and FYI i'm not your buddy.

your a freakin' idiot dude....the Cavs actually BEAT THE PISTONS last year with their "one man show" in the eastern finals....and the only person on this thread that will be drinking Kool Aid friday is you because thats all you'll be able to afford after you use all your "years of capping experiance" and lose your shirt playing the PISS-TONS.

Your logic playing Detroit tommorrow is about as dumb as if I came on here demanding everyone to bet the Celts on the road...it hasn't been a good play...what changes now??? take your 3.5 points and great "value" on your pistons bet thursday and get your ATM card ready, and don't forget your pin number you'll need it.

Ok some now I'm an idiot because I don't drink the Celtics kool aid? Also, nice reference there with the "Piss-tons", says everything really. No need for more.

great.

Listen, I don't have any intentions discussing sports with people like you. Safe trip back to lala land.

I bet you would be all over my writeup and reasoning if I picked the Celtics here by any chance. You would be saying "YEAH GO CELTS, CELTS IN FIVE".

But now, since I'm trying to present facts and make a sound wager, you have a problem with it. Very nice.

Well it remains to be seen really. That's why I haven't made any calls yet, just thinking out loud. Apparently, if you're not drinking Boston kool aid, you're not welcome sharing your thoughts.

I have no problems backing either of the teams, but based on what we saw in game 1 (a completely out of focus Pistons team and still with a shot at the cover come mid 4th and a tied game at half), I'm thinking this: if they can play better, they could win.

I still need the word on Billups, that's why I'm not making any moves as of yet. But leaning towards Detroit at the moment.

Before you call me a homer my goal is to pick winners. Here's my Game 7 writeup

Posted: 5/18/2008 1:19:12 PM+5140 this week so far but 0-3 last 3 (for the record)

I set up rules a long time ago that I stick to like glue. The 1st and most important one is to always collect at the end of the week. Today I find myself in a no lose situation. I bet Cleveland +8 for 2000. If the Cavs win I'm happy because I'll be up over 7k for the week. If the Celts win I'm up almost 3k and I'll be psyched to see the Celts/Pistons play in the Division finals. And the ultimate scenario is the Celtics win but by less than 8 and I'll be happy as a pig in shit.
Winning is the ultimate goal for me and not greed because if I'm greedy there is a good possibility I lose everything and walk away with nothing. I'm happy with my situation this week and I hope the Celtics win by 7 or less.

The regular season does mean something. If you look closely you will see the Pistons have scored 87,85,78 points in their matchups. In Game 1 the Pistons scored 79. Really did you think they would score 100?