Posted:
#1
At some point in December this past year I thought I'd check the spreads for the upcoming Sunday's NFL games, even though it had been years since I had gambled (successfully), and I stumbled across the Chargers -2.5 @ Tennessee. I'm only 19 and in college right now so I threw 20 bucks in a Bodog account and hit the Chargers up for all of it. Sure enough, the Chargers made a nice 4th quarter comeback and I doubled up. I picked another game the next week and got it up to 60, and finally had it up to about $100 come the NFL playoffs. In the playoffs I went 9-1 ATS, not including 5-0 ML (Took Giants in all 4 games they played ML), and the next thing I knew I had the account up to $800. Football was my money sport, but I had to continue the run so I switched to basketball, religiously watching every game (got NBA League Pass) and running all the stats every night until I felt ready to bet. My biggest bet yet was that Detroit @ Phoenix game a few weeks ago that Detroit dominated. I pretty much banked my entire account on that game it looked so good to me, and it paid off nicely. I'm up to 6500 right now and I'm smoking hot. I've posted a few times in krwoods threads (solid capper) if you want to see what I've said, but for the most part I've been spot on on the games I've written about. Tomorrow night I'm putting my largest wager yet on the Celtics -6. I'm putting 2k and any covers credibility I might get on the line. Here's why:
First off, this line is HIGH. Everybody knows at this point that Philly is on a roll, especially at home. Why would Vegas give Philly 6 points in a game they need at home? They are scared of Boston. They want you to take the points with Philly. Sure, consensus is 70/30 Boston right now, but the line will get higher as Vegas adjusts for its mistake, demonstrating this isn't a trap.
Teams are shooting below 35% against the Celtics the last 5 games. That's just ridiculous... Anyone who's been watching the Rockets go on a 17 game win streak knows that defense wins ATS. The Celtics' offense has caught fire the last few weeks, and Philly's defense isn't exactly stellar.
Most importantly, the run that Philly has pulled off just isn't that impressive. Yea, they blew out Seattle and Milwaukee. Nice. They downed Phoenix on the road, but shit, Phoenix was terrible after the Shaq deal. I didn't gain respect for Philly for winning that game, I lost respect for Phoenix for losing it. They beat an inconsistent Orlando squad (who lost to the Warriors a few days ago at home) before that, and now everyone thinks that Philly is awesome. I'd take them against a scrub team like Seattle any day, but not against the revived, veteran, and defensively minded Celts playing great ball giving up only 6 points. Philly is going to be the underdog bet everyone feels comfortable with tomorrow. People are going to be thinking, "They're hot and they're at home and this game means something to them!" That's why this is only at 6 points right now. Problem is, they're hot against poor teams, no one fills up the Wachovia Center anymore, and the game means something to Boston too.
I understand that if this misses, so does my covers reputation. But hey, its gambling isn't it?
Good luck. Go Celts
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