Are line movements / public money really that significant in capping a game?

Question

I mean when a team is -8 and later on is -9 b/c people are pouring money on the public b/c books want equal action on both sides. When i look at a game, i do look at the public consensus but i never really care about it that much. The only line movements i care about is something dramatic like when a star player is out and the line may be adjusted 3-4 points. Basically i look at the matchups and predict how both of these teams will perform.

I heard Rush said that a lot of his picks is based on where the money is going and that plays a very big part in how he makes his plays. He is a very fade the public capper but does real well.

Why do we really care about line movements and consensus? Just b/c the public is 78 percent liking a certain team and say 100 people put 5K on a side of a game, this is suppose to affect the outcome of a game? Isn't the players the ones that decide the outcome of a game?

Does anyone know how much money needs to be bet on a side/total where books have to adjust the line say from -8 to -8.5 points?

What is considered a LARGE wager these days? I wager from 100-500 per game. Is 100 dollars considered a recreationally wager where as 500 plus is where it starts to count as large?

Thanks fellas.

dynamite140 · Answer

I mean when a team is -8 and later on is -9 b/c people are pouring money on the public b/c books want equal action on both sides. When i look at a game, i do look at the public consensus but i never really care about it that much. The only line movements i care about is something dramatic like when a star player is out and the line may be adjusted 3-4 points. Basically i look at the matchups and predict how both of these teams will perform.

I heard Rush said that a lot of his picks is based on where the money is going and that plays a very big part in how he makes his plays. He is a very fade the public capper but does real well.

Why do we really care about line movements and consensus? Just b/c the public is 78 percent liking a certain team and say 100 people put 5K on a side of a game, this is suppose to affect the outcome of a game? Isn't the players the ones that decide the outcome of a game?

Does anyone know how much money needs to be bet on a side/total where books have to adjust the line say from -8 to -8.5 points?

What is considered a LARGE wager these days? I wager from 100-500 per game. Is 100 dollars considered a recreationally wager where as 500 plus is where it starts to count as large?

Thanks fellas.

SuckerBet77 · Answer

Fading the public is basically just playing on the fact that the public as a whole and in general loses more often than they win. As the public pounds the favorite (usually), the move the line higher than where it would naturally be based on team and player matchups. So a smart capper can get a point or more advantage against the natural spread by betting against the consensus. The higher the percentage wagers on the favorite, the better chance you have of the underdog covering in general.
As far as wager size, it all depends on your comfort level. I usually don't bet more than $100 per, but I know there are people on this site that are in the thousands per game. If your finances afford it and you aren't losing, why not bet as much as you are comfortable with. However, if you are losing more than you are winning, you should probably scale back a little.
Good luck.

VGPOP · Answer

It&#x27;s part of the process.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I still say defense stats is the most important aspect of handicapping a game in sports. (football and basketball)

JackBurton · Answer

I&#x27;m a spreadsheet junkie. Spreadsheets are my thing. I feel like I can analyze just about anything on a spread sheet (except the wife, of course).&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;At one point this season I tracked public concensus (for sides and O/U). I broke the data into two brackets: 1) Public concensus &lt; 66% (but &gt; 50%) and 2) Public concensus &gt; 66% (believe it or not, public concensus &gt; 66% was right more often than it was wrong (???)). I didn&#x27;t collect a very big data set (~80 samples). However, the data was forming just so unimpressively for both brackets (less than 55% repeatability either direction; both brackets) that I lost enthusiasm for even continuing to track it.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;My conclusion was that (without merging this data with other relevant factors) public concensus IS NOT A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR in and of itself. I&#x27;m not saying that correlation is totally lacking. There is some correlation there. I&#x27;m just saying that it doesn&#x27;t have enough of a preponderant and dominant influence to enhance wagering selection.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I also tracked side and O/U line movements for awhile. Line movements seem to be a little more relevant but still less than 57% predictive (data set ~ 80 samples). I stopped tracking line movements, as well. They just didn&#x27;t seem to possess strong-enough predictive value to justify continue tracking them either.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Maybe other people know ways of evaluating this kind of data more effectively than I do. That&#x27;s entirely possible (in fact, likely). But in my perception... public concensus and line movement just in their raw unadulterated form? The data by itself? I just didn&#x27;t see any significant predictive way to use that data, guys.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Then again, let me re-emphasize: I could well be wrong... maybe I didn&#x27;t collect enough data... or maybe I just catalogged the data set during a bad time period (?). I don&#x27;t know. There is entirely too much data to digest in sports wagering in the first place though. For time and complexity&#x27;s sake, you have to pick and choose the most promising criteria. Public concensus and line movement data just didn&#x27;t maintain my attention though - waffling too much in either direction.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Just one man&#x27;s opinion of course, guys.

UNDERdogin · Answer

my opinion is that consensus matters most when you have high profile teams vs low public opinion teams &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; tomorrow you have lakers [very high profile]vs clippers [very low public opinion] I&#x27;m guessing that even though you have a double digit line the majority will be on the lakers &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;these are the best situations to use it to your advantage &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;as for line movement it seems to me that the more it moves the better shot vegas has of winning that situation &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;it seems they are taking advantage of the fact one side is getting pounded and are actually increasing there chance of winning as opposed to moving it because the line needs adjusting&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I think we should be trying to learn as much as we can from every bet we make as well as those we don&#x27;t make

JackBurton · Answer

I think your intimation is right on, UNDERdogin. You need to analyze public concensus for special case situations. As with most data, the most effective relevance and value is found usually in subset and special case situations ONLY. I think that&#x27;s exactly the right tact to take, in general. I just don&#x27;t have the time or the savvy to ferret out all the special case situations however. Though I will certainly take future note of your reference to the special case situation of very high profile (public darling) teams. Maybe that&#x27;s one good way to use public concensus data. Hope so.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;As far as line movement goes, I agree with the logic you stated above (the line will move against increasing public action). By definition, the book desiring 50%-50% action, one would expect line movement to be consistent with the dynamic of results, right? However, I just didn&#x27;t see a preponderant correlation in terms of wagering success =&gt; either going against the direction or following the direction of the drift. Neither way worked consistently enough to wager upon in my studies. Again, maybe one needs to study this data for special case situations of some type (?). Just blindly following the line drift for all cases (and even sub-bracketing results according to different (drift) threshold magnitudes) just wasn&#x27;t giving me good results though. It really wasn&#x27;t, man.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;There is just too much data and too many permutations to study and model all of this effectively. My computer CPU and spreadsheet are adequate. My cognitive process is not... I envy the gifted gambler who can just shoot effectively from the hip. Those guys are undoubtedly the most successful of all. Though even then, I suspect many of them are prone to analyze some amount of data. The key is which data (and constructed into what types of algorithms), right?

STASH · Answer

DYNIMITE140...those are very good questions, Yes, $100 is considered a recreatioal wager (based upon your bank roll ,of course) What is known as "Large" is four digit wagers... Going "Real" is five digits...I recommend you wager ONE game only, until you can use "their" money to go Large... Line movement play&#x27;s really no strong factor in handicapping a match-up, All games are based on statistical fomulated concept, and factors with educated reasoning, Vegas set&#x27;s the Global line, bottom line, LINEMOVEMENT is based on "balance" they have to keep theirselves protected, and linemovement is there formula.It should not influence a strong lean.....Later

STASH · Answer

JackBurton, that was some very valuable information you just shared.Thank you for your effort. It&#x27;s all about the correct formula applied to the match-up in effect...

rod_steel · Answer

JackBurton how can I contact you

Lippsman · Answer

Overall it&#x27;s a 50-50 crapshoot, if you already have capped a game and something like a public fade or consensus backs up what you bevlieve then great.  But you can&#x27;t just cap games with line movements and consensus.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;There are no shortcuts to actually capping a game.

WussieMan · Answer

Funny Lippsman,&#xD;&#xA;You have exposed thee Wussie system... That&#x27;s all I do, exactly which steps am I missing???

9Fishcake9 · Answer

IS " public concensus " based upon the number of wagers on 1 side vrs the other? 2,497 people say Lakers and 1275 people  are betting Clippers? Or is just assumed that the  public concensus  is whatever team is recieving the most $ ? Say 10 people bet $100 on the lakers but 1 sharp bets 1400 on the Clippers so it looks like the Clippers are getting more action is that  public concensus ? Trying to learn here and this is the most informative thread Ive read out of thousands. Thanks in advance to anyone who answers my rookie questions. great info.

Maluke · Answer

Great messages.  I use consensu picks for seeing whether to put a game in early or wait till the last minute.  If I&#x27;m on the other side of the fence with the public then I&#x27;ll wait to see if I can get another pt or half pt,&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If I&#x27;m w/ the public then I put the game in so I do not lose the pt or .5 pt.

spliquid · Answer

I think if you look on wagerline each day what the highest percentage of people are on, especially college basketball, on more days than not if you see a number over 70%, they lose more than they win. Line movement is important because the guys that make these lines in Vegas are pretty good at what they do, look how many games come down to a point or a half a point. If a line moves too much off of where they originally had it, you see the "wise guys" pound the other side late. There's so many different aspects of capping, but you sometimes have to read what Vegas wants the public to bet on, "the trap game", because when something looks to good to be true, it usually isn't. If 75% of the public is on one side of a game, but the line is moving in the other direction, thats a pretty good sign to fade the public. Line movements like that are the ones I'd say are the most useful.

Are line movements / public money really that significant in capping a game?

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