Sunday:
WAS vs ATL (no play, lean ATL +5)
This series I think is the only one where we might get an upset. I have watched the Wizards a lot and I don't buy into them. I was very close to playing Atlanta here but I just can't get the Wiz right, when I bet on them they don't cover when I go against them they win. And they are 30-11 at home so I don't really want to bet against a team that only loses about 1 of every 4 home games. But one big factor in Atlanta's favor here is Ian Mahimi is out for Washington. He's their backup center but I think he's actually better than Gortat who has lost a step and cant hit FTs. He gives them really good minutes when he's in as Gortat can often get in foul trouble. With Dwight and Millsap up front they could have an advantage in the paint. He's likely out for 7-10 days though, and I'll be more confident in playing on the Hawks either in Game 2 or 3. The Wizards defense stinks and Wall has to carry the team so much, but I think Atl will be a more solid play back home.
BOS vs CHI (Bos -8 for 2 units)
Just like Milwaukee, people are talking up Chicago here. Not gonna happen. They scraped into that 8th seed and you want to know why the Celtics are so good: because they have IT now and not that muppet Rondo. Thomas is having a phenomenal season, and the C's are deep at other positions, all their big guys can shoot, and they are excellent at closing out games, ranking 1st in 4th quarter scoring in the leauge, while Bulls are 27th. The Celtics are 31-11 at home while the Bulls have only won 41 games all year. They're a .500 team, and they only got in because a)the bottom half of the east is so bad that even the other bad teams weren't bad enough to beat them out, heck Miami who started what, 11-30 nearly got in ahead of them, and b)they had a super easy schedule at the end when they needed those wins.In their last 6 games they played Brooklyn twice, Orlando, Philly, the Knicks and the Pels. All teams that not only stink but were eliminated and had nothing to play for. And they only won 4 of those! they lost to the Knicks and the Nets.They're very mediocre. These teams split their 4 meetings this season, each winning their home games and I see that continung. Boston beat them by 20 last game in Boston. With the Bulls having to scrape in and also playing 4 of their last 6 on the road, don't make the mistake of thinking the C's are a vulnerable top seed. They will take game 1 in style IMO.
GSW vs POR (GSW -14.5 for 1 unit)
Only reason this play is not for the usual 2 units is because I find 13-14 to be hard numbers to cover in the NBA and now some books have even gone to 15. But I'm taking it because Golden St is likely to come out hot and make a statement in Game 1 after the finals debacle last year. Dame Lillard didn't help matters saying that Portland would win in 6, he's smoking crack obviously. Any chance Portland had died when Nurkic went down. He improved them so much and now they have no inside presence. He was meant to be out for a while but now there are reports that he might play but I doubt it, I think that's just mind games. Anyway, on the other hand, GSW got Durant back and with him inside this is just a huge mismatch when you already have the splash brothers to worry about. And anyway I've watched Portland, they play no defense at all, they just try to jack up 3s. And unfortunately GSW will take that all day as they do that too and are far better at it. I think the Warriors are a lock to win it all this year and Portland will likely get swept. Anyway, Portland really only plays well at home, this is likely to be a blowout and the only way this bet loses is if we get some backdoor bullcrap.
HOU vs OKC (Hou -7 for 2 units and over 228 for 1 unit)
Houston is the closest team to GS IMO and they have been draining 3s at a ridiculous rate. With the Russ vs Harden MVP battle likely going to Russ and all the hoopla about his triple double record, we're going to see a big time battle with a high score I think. Especially since it's the last game I always like the over in that spot for some reason. Harden has come out and said he thinks he should get it because his team has more wins and I think he'll have a big point to prove on Sunday. OKC was too focused on that stupid record and really has looked bad at times recently. They got destroyed by Phoenix and then fell behind to Denver by 10 before coming back to win. Houston has a tendency to play a bit sloppy but with the motivation angle here to bring Russ down a peg, I don't think they'll let OKC hang around, they'll step on their neck and try to hang a big number on them. Like Boston they tend to close out well, 4th in the league in 4th Q ppg. They aren't great defensively which is why I also like the Over here. Usually when the number is set that high it's telling you to go over - the total was only 224 when they played Sacramento who allows more points than OKC. The game ended with like 260 something points. This could be like 128-109.