Please don't shred me for my ignorance about players and so on.
The Philadelphia 76ers are the best team in the NBA ats and I expect them to cover again tonight. The public has bet Atlanta into the favorite role and I think that is a mistake. This game opened as a pk and the thought process is likely that the 76ers are tanking, have nothing to play for, while Atlanta is contending not just for seeding, but to secure a playoff spot. I had success fading Detroit, who, despite needing to beat the Knicks more than the Knicks needed to beat them, lost horribly on the road. The public likes to back the team that needs to win more. And I think this will be one more instance in which the public is wrong. I don’t like the spot for Atlanta. Lately, it seems like it’s rather the 76ers who are contending for a playoff spot, and not Atlanta. Atlanta had lost 7 in a row su before escaping with a win against a Phoenix team without Devin Booker, after allowing an enormous first quarter lead to evaporate. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has won 2 out of 3 games as underdogs su, beating the Nets and the Bulls. Philadelphia is 25-10 ats at home, but they key trend is this: after returning home after multiple road games, Philadelphia is 7-1 ats, each of those covers besides one also being a su victory. The one cover missed by a point, depending if you got an unlucky spread. I expect that trend to continue against an Atlanta seem that seems to be coming off the rails at the end of the season. Sometimes the pressure of the playoff race can negatively affect a team, and this seems to be another example of that. Take Philadelphia +1.5
The Pacers have failed to cover their last 5 on the road and I expect that to continue against Memphis. Indiana has been playing much more poorly on the road than at home—poorly enough to create value in the spread. They were 1 point underdogs vs Memphis and they will likely open as 7 point underdogs in Memphis. But consider their last few home games: Indiana beat the 76ers 107-94 at home but lost to them 109-105 on the road. They lost to Denver 125-117 at home, but lost to them 140-112 on the road. They beat Utah 107-100 at home but lost to them 109-100 in Utah. The road/away differential is easily larger than that of the spread, home vs away (6 points), hence the value. There have been exceptions to this trend, but they are rare, and they are rare because they involve the Pacers shooting outside of themselves, and their opponent having an unusually severe off-night. I don’t expect Memphis to have an off-night against Indiana, as they are 24-18 ats after one day rest. Memphis seems to be cold, but that is only because they were on a 4 game road trip. They return back home where they have easily covered their last two. They are also 3-0 ats after returning home after 4+ games in a row on the road. Evidently, Memphis gets a boost from being back at home. Take Memphis (opening number)