Let's get the stats out of the way first. I left all ATS stats out of my cap since it's a short line, and a ML play.
SPURS record away 22-19 record away vs west 12-14
LAC record home 30-11 record home vs west 20-6
SPURS record last 15 games 13-2
LAC record last 15 games 14-1
SPURS SOS#14 LAC SOS#12
SPURS RPI .548 LAC RPI .552
SPURS+-diff 6.19 LAC+-diff 6.59
The line opened LAC-2. The majority of bets and $ have been on the spurs from the get go. Rather lop sided if you ask me. Eventually going down to LAC-1. Now this line sat at -1 for too long IMO, with tickets coming in on the spurs. Bet % was in the 70's on the spurs. In any other game the line would of moved quickly to balance out such a situation.
This morning we saw a short lived line movement. Where the line dipped to a pick and a LAC+1 for a brief time. This I suspect is a "testing of the waters" by the books. That line went back to LAC-1 quickly(someone/sharps loved the pick and+1 enough to drive it back) Ofcoarse this is just my opinion, but let me say I like to watch lines and have seen such instances many times.
That's one angle.
Angle 2, I feel that the Clippers are coming into the playoffs w/ a huge chip on their shoulder. All I hear is how horrible the bench is, how doc should of lost his last game to avoid the spurs, the clippers are pretenders. How Chris Paul always gets outed after rd 1...doesn't that make anyone think that he wants to get passed that first rd more than anybody else? What better time to catch that fire in their first game at home rather than wait till the second game to make a play...
Angle 3. Bad spot for the spurs. They just came off a high motivation game w/ the pelicans. The motivation being on the pelicans side(win and get in) Anyone who thought the spurs tanked that game is out of their minds. Pels won fair n square, check the game log for minutes played by the spurs starters. And I think they are running right into another motivationaly driven team in the clippers tonight.
Angle 4. Refs. Highly favor the home team here SU.
Angle 5. Last game on a sunday night where lots of on tilt bettors are looking for that last "sure winner"...and you know how that one goes.
I capped LAC to win by 1.12 by the #'s. Motivation is hard to put a # on IMO.
Let's get the stats out of the way first. I left all ATS stats out of my cap since it's a short line, and a ML play.
SPURS record away 22-19 record away vs west 12-14
LAC record home 30-11 record home vs west 20-6
SPURS record last 15 games 13-2
LAC record last 15 games 14-1
SPURS SOS#14 LAC SOS#12
SPURS RPI .548 LAC RPI .552
SPURS+-diff 6.19 LAC+-diff 6.59
The line opened LAC-2. The majority of bets and $ have been on the spurs from the get go. Rather lop sided if you ask me. Eventually going down to LAC-1. Now this line sat at -1 for too long IMO, with tickets coming in on the spurs. Bet % was in the 70's on the spurs. In any other game the line would of moved quickly to balance out such a situation.
This morning we saw a short lived line movement. Where the line dipped to a pick and a LAC+1 for a brief time. This I suspect is a "testing of the waters" by the books. That line went back to LAC-1 quickly(someone/sharps loved the pick and+1 enough to drive it back) Ofcoarse this is just my opinion, but let me say I like to watch lines and have seen such instances many times.
That's one angle.
Angle 2, I feel that the Clippers are coming into the playoffs w/ a huge chip on their shoulder. All I hear is how horrible the bench is, how doc should of lost his last game to avoid the spurs, the clippers are pretenders. How Chris Paul always gets outed after rd 1...doesn't that make anyone think that he wants to get passed that first rd more than anybody else? What better time to catch that fire in their first game at home rather than wait till the second game to make a play...
Angle 3. Bad spot for the spurs. They just came off a high motivation game w/ the pelicans. The motivation being on the pelicans side(win and get in) Anyone who thought the spurs tanked that game is out of their minds. Pels won fair n square, check the game log for minutes played by the spurs starters. And I think they are running right into another motivationaly driven team in the clippers tonight.
Angle 4. Refs. Highly favor the home team here SU.
Angle 5. Last game on a sunday night where lots of on tilt bettors are looking for that last "sure winner"...and you know how that one goes.
I capped LAC to win by 1.12 by the #'s. Motivation is hard to put a # on IMO.
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