2014-2015 NBA: 1-2
It all comes down to this:
1. The Triangle offense
The Knicks will start with the Triangle offense.
Eventually, like they did against the Cavs, they will move away from it and switch to an semi-up-tempo/Iso-Melo hybrid. This is not their long-term plan and is 'cheating' a bit for the long-term when they really have to take their lumps learning this offense at some point.
How this game goes will be determined by how long they stay in the Triangle.
As soon as the Knicks moved away from the Triangle in Cleveland, they never looked back.
Do I know how long it will take to move away from the Triangle?
No I don't.
Here's what I do know.
I can't see them having a second straight debacle at home in front of Phil and the fans.
Which leads to the next point.
2. Emotional win
I know you are afraid of a letdown spot for the Knicks and worse, one where you are laying points.
The one saving grace we have here with the Knicks casually dropping this one is the woeful performance they had against the Bulls.
Not only did they want to bounce back against the Cavs (or at least, be competitive and they were much more than that), they will also want to undo the atrocity that was committed in the Garden against the Bulls in Game 1.
And because of that, I believe they will come to play today.
Better, Sunday games are usually at 1pm.
It looks like the Knicks petitioned the league and/or the league had mercy on them and avoided the 1pm schedule.
Thank god the league put this game at 7:30pm.
That may be worth the full 4 points in the spread right there as there would be no way in hell I'd play this game if it were at 1.
So no, I'm not afraid of the public being on the Knicks.
3. The Hornets
They really look out of sorts early.
They beat the Bucks in a game where they need two last second shots from Kemba Walker.
Mind you, this was Jabari Parkers first NBA start and a game where Jared Dudley stunk up the floor (he should not be starting).
Still the Bucks lead by a 15 heading into the fourth with a coach just getting his feet wet with his new team.
Then it all collapsed and the Kemba show started.
Last night, they only managed 69 points in a 2 pt loss to Memphis so we get them on a B2B. The Grizzlies won shooting on 36% from the field.
Better, Lance Stephenson does not know what his role is on this team.
He was benched in the 4th during last night's game with only 3 points on his stat sheet.
Steve Clifford, the head coach, had this to say about him:
''He just didn't play very well,'' Clifford said. ''I coach to win. I went with the team that played the best. The guys that know what they're doing out there and played the best are the guys that played. The guys that continue to play like that will be the guys that play.''
That's quite an indictment in only game second of the season.
Folks, this is EXACTLY what every team was scared of with Lance when pursuing a free agent. Breaking News: He is a head case.
Perhaps the guys in the Indiana locker room could control him, but here, maybe some of these players and coaches don't want to deal with him.
Does Lance love to burn the Knicks? Yes. But how does he fit in this offense. While he was deferred to on the Pacers, there are several other options the team wants to run plays through on this team (primarily Al Jeff). And he may be frustrated because his ball handling responsibilities have diminished.
So we have a team, on a B2B, that just benched one of its stars, against one that had the surprise win of the season over the Cavs and wants to redeem itself.
And let's note this: the Bulls are a top tier team in the East, if not the league. Losing to them is nothing to be ashamed of. While the way the Knicks lost at home was disturbing, it was their very first game with a new coach and new system.
Yes, this is only game 3 but whatever the Knicks learned in game 1 will have to be applied in game 3. I assume they learned a lot more than they bargained for.
4. The spread
Do I like laying 4 here? No. Why? The uncertainty of #1 above.
But I will tell you this. The Knicks bench may not be stellar, but everyone plays a role.
This allows fresh players to get on the floor and continue to play an up-tempo style while running sets. The Knicks bench scored a somewhat stunning 44 against the Cavs to their 12. That is very important.
We get the game in prime time. We get a 'home' mini-bounceback spot which I believe counters the emotional win a bit. And we get a team that should move away from its Triangle against a team that generated all the highlights in their first game against a bad Bucks team (all that Jordan fist pumping on the sidelines was too much too soon when you look at who it was against).
We also get confidence, something this team was severely lacking last year. When you look at the Knicks wins and losses last year, they won and lost in streaks. It's better to back the Knicks off a confidence-building win than back them off a several losses.
2.5 stars (as I'm very selective and I have played 3 games in 3 nights so I'll bring it down a notch).
Let's get a 7 point win and get back in the win column.
The pick:
Knicks -4 over Hornets