I have been waiting for one spot in this entire FIBA tournament where the conditions were right to hammer a side.
We are going to back one of, if not the best bet in terms of point differential and ATS record in the 2014 FIBA.
That team is the Philippines.
What the hell does this guy know about the Philippines? A lot. I'm on top of all their games and now is the time to take them.
First, how good are the lowly (and I say lowly because they are so lowly regarded in this tournament) Philippines?
Let's show you how far off the books were with regard to their spreads:
Phil +26 vs. Croatia - Phil lost by 3 in OT
Phil +19 vs. Greece - Phil lost by 12 (really lost by 9 as they counted a 3 after ther buzzer)
Phil +14 vs. Argentina - Phil lost by 4
That is a net positive ATS differential of +40! and a 3-0 ATS. Next to Senegal this year, this is as good as it gets.
So why have the books been so off in terms of line making for the Philippines?
1. They were 1000-1 to win it all.
Basically this team was given a quick hand wave from the opening tip.
2. Their size
Philippines (by their very nature) are one of the smaller teams in the tournament, if not the smallest in terms of size, and that is both height and weight included.
3. Their talent
How many current NBA'ers are on their roster who are not imports? None. Now go look at some other natural born citizens of other countries and how many are in the NBA? You'll find a bunch and some very, very good ones (which is why Spain is a co-favorite with the US).
Short and sweet, they are nobodies...except for one thing...betting. And no one expected that.
Now let's talk about the positives for the Philippines.
1. They have Andray Blatche
He's been a monster in this tournament.
21ppg
13.7 rpg
The Philippines aggressively recruited him to 'go for broke' in this FIBA and it has paid off like a slot machine despite their 0-3 record. NO ONE expected them to compete with the 3 teams above, and they almost went 2-1.
Why did they go for broke? This is the first time the PHIL are part of international competition since 1978. So Blatche was a major addition to a team starved for front court presence to compete with the big dogs in their group. And compete they did (and that is saying a lot for PHIL)
He adds an incredible dimension to a team that dribble/drives/shoots constantly because they are undersized and his addition confuses the hell out of teams.
Which leads me to my next point.
2. The game against Argentina was the high water mark for this team.
Argentina is ranked what? Do you know?
THIRD IN THE WORLD in the FIBA rankings.
The Philippines? 34th!
And they were right there with ARG ready to win the game with 11 seconds left. Folks, PHIL shouldn't be able to carry Argentina's jock.
But what did ARG's coach say after their too close for comfort win?
"They made us look like fools in the first half" (where they went up by 10)
"They play to their full potential" (I'll add to that. They play beyond it.)
"This was the most difficult game I had to coach in my life" (this is the #3 team in the world saying this)
"They play the weirdest style I have ever seen."
With Blatche, they have everyone confused. Even when Blatche goes to the bench they are still producing and were up by an amazing TEN POINTs in the first half.
I capiltalize that because PHIL vs. ARG is like Kentucky vs. The Blazers. You just won't see Kentucky take a lead on them outside of 2-0, nevermind 10.
Why?
3. Basketball is everything to the Philippines.
It is their bread and butter, their pride and joy, their culture. Even their president is making statements to the press about their performance (in the group round!)
And they have played like it against top flight competition this whole tournament.
So who's up next and why is it a good bet.