i was looking at this game for the past 24 hours. After detroit blowing that 25 pt lead against the pacers at home, and knowing drummond was out, and knowing the nba. i was liking detroit to pull of the upset. i was able to lock in a bet on them last night +7@ +103. i just had a feeling that someone would be out on denver side dropping the line.
and it indeed came true. its now currently at denver -6@-106.
you see, this is a good spot to back a bad team. wait, i got that wrong. This is a good spot to fade a better team at home.
denver was off a 5 game roadie. it was a good spot to back them last time around against the streaking clippers. first because denver are the best team coming from a long roadie, going 18-5 in that stretch. and second, western teams as a dog coming off that said roadie is a decent 33-17 ATS.
however, it becomes worse on the second game, the second game at home as favs brings it down to a lowly 27-44 ATS. that is a big discrepancy. initially laying 7 at home is too much. advantage detroit.
and lets talk about letdown spot. last year, in the same exact situation, after denver ending the 17 game win streak of the clippers, they were 8 pt favorites at home against minnesota. they lost that game SU.
but injuries to chandler and lawson being probable just had to mess it up. im thinking of buying out of my bet now. well hey, any profit is good profit any day of the week.
i was looking at this game for the past 24 hours. After detroit blowing that 25 pt lead against the pacers at home, and knowing drummond was out, and knowing the nba. i was liking detroit to pull of the upset. i was able to lock in a bet on them last night +7@ +103. i just had a feeling that someone would be out on denver side dropping the line.
and it indeed came true. its now currently at denver -6@-106.
you see, this is a good spot to back a bad team. wait, i got that wrong. This is a good spot to fade a better team at home.
denver was off a 5 game roadie. it was a good spot to back them last time around against the streaking clippers. first because denver are the best team coming from a long roadie, going 18-5 in that stretch. and second, western teams as a dog coming off that said roadie is a decent 33-17 ATS.
however, it becomes worse on the second game, the second game at home as favs brings it down to a lowly 27-44 ATS. that is a big discrepancy. initially laying 7 at home is too much. advantage detroit.
and lets talk about letdown spot. last year, in the same exact situation, after denver ending the 17 game win streak of the clippers, they were 8 pt favorites at home against minnesota. they lost that game SU.
but injuries to chandler and lawson being probable just had to mess it up. im thinking of buying out of my bet now. well hey, any profit is good profit any day of the week.
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