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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Interesting info about the Heat's 12-0 ATS trend that might be useful tonight in Game 6
MrBator send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:07:31 AM
This thread wasn't started to endorse a play on the Miami Heat -7 tonight (that's your call), but since we're all having so much fun either following the trend or trying to fade it (d'oh), let's take a closer look at it.


Six of the Heat's bounceback blowout double-digit wins happened during the final three months of the regular season while the other six have obviously happened during the playoffs.  We already know that the Heat covered all 12 games.  What isn't widely known is that the Heat went just 7-5 ATS in the 1st halves while going a perfect 12-0 ATS in the 2nd halves.  In half of the games, the Heat built a large halftime lead of at least 14 points:


66-44 at Sacramento

52-38 at Golden State

60-43 at New Orleans

55-41 vs. Chicago

70-56 at Indiana 

52-37 vs. Indiana



In the other six games, the Heat were either losing, tied, or leading by no more than 5 points at the half:


49-49 at Brooklyn

losing 50-44 at Toronto

48-45 at Charlotte

losing 44-40 vs. Indiana

50-45 vs. San Antonio

49-49 at San Antonio



In the 6 games in which the Heat built halftime leads of 14+ points, these were the margins by which they covered the 2nd half lines:


8.5 at Sacramento (getting +1.5 and winning 62-55)

5 at Golden State (getting +2 and winning 40-37)

2.5 at New Orleans (getting a half point and winning 48-46)

19.5 vs. Chicago (laying -3.5 and winning 60-37)

8 at Indiana (getting +4 and winning 44-40)

8 vs. Indiana (getting +1 and winning 47-39)


That's not bad at all, right?  In fact, it's pretty good considering they could have taken it easy having already established a huge lead by halftime.  Now check out what the Heat have done in the games in which things were still very much undecided at halftime.  Here are the margins by which the Heat covered the 2nd half lines of those 6 games: 


18 at Brooklyn (laying -2 and winning 56-36)

16 at Toronto (laying -5 and winning 56-35)

8 at Charlotte (laying -1 and winning 41-34.....LeBron, Wade, and Allen all sat out this entire game)

8 vs. Indiana (laying -7 and winning 50-35)

11.5 vs. San Antonio (laying -2.5 and winning 53-39)

14.5 at San Antonio (laying 1.5 and winning 60-44)



Now this is really impressive.  Throwing out the meaningless April 5th game at Charlotte in which the Big Two didn't play, the Heat won each of these five 2nd halves by at least 14 points!  That means in all 11 bounceback games since January 12th in which LeBron played, the Heat won one half or the other by at least 14 points. 


What I'm getting at here is that if the Heat find themselves in a tight one tonight in the 1st half, you should know what to do at halftime - UNLOAD.  Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half.  If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large.  The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets.  In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.  
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#2
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:12:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:

Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half.  If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large.  The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets.  In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.  





I am totally taking my own advice on that one.  
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#3
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:32:24 AM
outstanding Bator
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#4
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:39:46 AM
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#5
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:53:00 AM
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#6
Posted: 6/18/2013 5:56:38 AM
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#7
Posted: 6/18/2013 6:19:34 AM
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#8
Posted: 6/18/2013 7:09:43 AM
Thx great stats! MrBator yur the best!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#9
Posted: 6/18/2013 7:18:25 AM
And if the Spurs win 1H, 2H and FG? LOL
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#10
Posted: 6/18/2013 8:13:58 AM
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#11
Posted: 6/18/2013 8:14:47 AM
Thinking about starting my day with an Aceves fade 1st 5 and game in order to pad my wallet for the mountain I am going to lay on the Heat tonight.
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#12
Posted: 6/18/2013 8:25:44 AM

Thats alot of Good work Bator. I spot checked your list and found no flaws. Damn I thought I was the only one anal enough to track like this. You do have the edge on 2nd H line management though. You gotta be Johnny on the spot on every game every day or have an accessible archive resourse. Do tell, Do tell. 

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#13
Posted: 6/18/2013 8:57:31 AM
LET'S GET THIS,  GREAT STAT'S
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#14
Posted: 6/18/2013 9:10:16 AM
For whatever it's worth (potentially nothing depending on what you value) - spurs are 10-0 straight up / 9-1 against the spread in "change of venue" games this postseason. 
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#15
Posted: 6/18/2013 9:46:52 AM
Yes they are. That makes for an interesting game tonight  'cause somethings gotta give.  Good info raems
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#16
Posted: 6/18/2013 9:48:52 AM
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#17
Posted: 6/18/2013 9:57:05 AM
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#18
Posted: 6/18/2013 10:45:54 AM
Best insights on this forum Bator. I can't really predict the outcome of this game, since I really believe that the Spurs is the better team. But it's hard to go against Miami with their backs against the wall. Just look at what they've done to Boston in game 6 - destroyed them in front of the C's fans. Tough house to win at, especially 98-79.


So, for now, what I'm gonna do is take Lebron prop over 28.5. Last year he was 19-26 with 45 points. That's crazy. We all remember. I think that this is the safest bet of the day. I hate Lebron more than any one but I certainly respect his playing with his back against the wall.


I really want to take a side, just for fun, because I already made great money in this series (going 5 for 5, pretty cool). But I want to take a side, and I can't see Miami losing this one. Officiating wise, Stern wise, or whatever conspiracy wise you'd like. I'm just not sure that it will be by more than 7, with all do respect to those amazing trends, and the reason is one: Popovich. This coach blows my mind every time. He knows that it's a win or die, he wants it today, and this is why I'm hesitating on taking the Heat-7. ML not worth it.

For me it's Lebron over 28.5 for now.


Bator, can't wait to read your next insights to help me decide which side I'm on today. 
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#19
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:10:39 AM
If there ever was a time when the well dries up, this has to be a perfect spot.  I hear a bit too much talk about game 7.  Does anyone really think the Spurs have a chance to actually win game 6?   Without reading much, I'm going to guess not and you know how that usually turns out.  Not sure where the money is at or who the public is on but I'm pretty sure there won't be much Spurs ML.

Is there any chance that the Heatles think back 2 years a go when the Mavs won game 6 on their floor for the title?  Just because of the rare 2 3 2 format(only finals), I think they might. If so how do they react to that thought.  I'm going to guess in a negative way.  A bit more nerves maybe.  In that game 6 loss The Mavs shot 50% from the field even though Dirk went 9/27 and won 105-95.  Since then The Heatles have played 3 other Game 6s, all on the road covering 2 last year and losing su and ats this year to Indiana who also shot 50% that game.

Great stuff!  Thank you.

Just some more food for thought




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#20
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:15:00 AM
Great info as always buddy 
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#21
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:17:43 AM
Good luck on the great info...I stone cold hate betting against Pop. He's the nuts at getting the best out of his people. Look at how he's got Manu and Green motivated. You just can't put a statistical number on that. How do you cap the Pop factor? 'Another excellent idea' might be to take the 7 and if it loses, take the number in Game 7.

RT2
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#22
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:31:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by guiltyascharged:

And if the Spurs win 1H, 2H and FG? LOL






Well, as a dummy who's tried to buck this steamrolling trend the last three times it's come up and gotten steamrolled, I now refuse to allow for the possibility that it might not work the next time.



    <------- unable to beat them and thus now joining them






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#23
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:47:29 AM
Posts like these are why Bator is a legend around these parts.

That being said, I lean SAS catching the points. Every bettor in the world is aware of the zig-zag pattern now, and this series has taught us that unpredictability rules the day. What is more unpredictable now than the Spurs going into MIA in a Joey Crawford ref'd game and winning and ending this thing in six? I have to imaging books will be getting tons and tons of action on MIA, both spread and ML (by itself and in parlays).


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#24
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:48:33 AM
Wow, I thought we both had enough mutual disdain for the Heat not to join them. But now you are joining them.

Enjoy the dark side. 


That being said, hope ya hit and I'll stick with the Spurs the for the series and not fool with these Jekyll and Hyde Heat.


Great info as usual.
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#25
Posted: 6/18/2013 11:49:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by milky24:


I really want to take a side, just for fun, because I already made great money in this series (going 5 for 5, pretty cool). But I want to take a side, and I can't see Miami losing this one. Officiating wise, Stern wise, or whatever conspiracy wise you'd like. I'm just not sure that it will be by more than 7, with all do respect to those amazing trends, and the reason is one: Popovich. This coach blows my mind every time. He knows that it's a win or die





But it isn't win or die tonight.  I don't know if Popovich is aware of the exact numbers involved in both his team's "off a loss" trend and the Heat's "off a loss" trend, but I'm sure he's aware that both teams perform brilliantly when playing off a loss.  So knowing that, I think he should pull back the reigns tonight.  Let the Heat go wild and expend tons of energy in winning by double-digits again, knowing that such a double-digit win by the Heat and double-digit loss by the Spurs sets his team up beautifully for the 7th and deciding game.  If Pop isn't aware that his team, playing this season (and twice so far in this series) with rest off of a double-digit loss is 7-0 winning by an average of 19.5 points per game, then somebody should definitely tell him!!  Imagine that trend in play for the Spurs on Thursday night when they're getting 6!  That might become one of the better NBA plays I've ever seen.
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