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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Spurs +240 series hedge question
Prof_Chaos send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/14/2013 4:34:30 PM
I have Miami +225 ($100 bet) futures bet to win the chamionship. Spurs are +240 to win the series as of today. 

What is the EV of hedging $100 on the Spurs vs letting my Miami bet ride?
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#2
Posted: 6/14/2013 5:43:50 PM
I'm wondering wether to do this as well. I have $250 Mia (+200) but SAS in my book is +195. Really tempted to put 100 on SAS but MIA looks good finally 
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#3
Posted: 6/14/2013 5:44:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Prof_Chaos:

I have Miami +225 ($100 bet) futures bet to win the chamionship. Spurs are +240 to win the series as of today. 

What is the EV of hedging $100 on the Spurs vs letting my Miami bet ride?


EV of Hedging = is (.71)($225) - (.29)($100) Plus (.29)($240) - (.71)(100)

= ($159.75-$29) + ($29-$71)

=$130.75 + (-$42)

= $88.75

EV of Heat Futures Bet Alone
= (.71)($225) - (.29)($100)

= $159.75-$29

= $130.75

LET IT RIIIIIIIIIIDE!

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lonniejoshua send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 6/14/2013 5:59:34 PM
Is there really a ponder on hedging a 100 dollar bet....who gives a crap unless you at like 20-1 on a future or something......to win 44 bucks to lose on baseball next week
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lonniejoshua send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 6/14/2013 6:01:10 PM
If you bet withcita or Mich to win final four in Jan then you hedge ville. ......@2/1 ish your waiting time
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Prof_Chaos send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 6/14/2013 6:44:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:



EV of Hedging = is (.71)($225) - (.29)($100) Plus (.29)($240) - (.71)(100)

= ($159.75-$29) + ($29-$71)

=$130.75 + (-$42)

= $88.75

EV of Heat Futures Bet Alone
= (.71)($225) - (.29)($100)

= $159.75-$29

= $130.75

LET IT RIIIIIIIIIIDE!


where did you get the .71 and the .29?
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#7
Posted: 6/14/2013 7:00:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Prof_Chaos:


where did you get the .71 and the .29?

Those are the implied odds given the current series prices.  Miami 71% chance of winning series.
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BIZ321 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 6/14/2013 7:17:31 PM
If I were you Id put $40 on SAS. That way its either +$185 if Heat win or $0 if the Spurs win. You win a little less but you dont risk losing anything 
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#9
Posted: 6/14/2013 7:58:10 PM
If losing $100 bucks is a huge deal, and believe me, to many, including myself it is, then hege and take the automatic payday.. you could even let it ride one more game and take better odds if Miami wins game 5. But if you could stomach a loss of this amount, LET IT RIDE MAN..!  If you told me you bet $1000, then that is most likely a hege situation as well..
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#10
Posted: 6/14/2013 9:58:40 PM
Well if losing a $100 is huge, why bet it on a season long future or for that matter at all.
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#11
Posted: 6/14/2013 10:21:19 PM
dont hedge, you made the bet for a reason.
if you were talking thousands...thats a different story.
i have a few thousand on heat...i hedged a little...i think i will regret it.
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#12
Posted: 6/14/2013 10:57:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LarryParker:

If losing $100 bucks is a huge deal, and believe me, to many, including myself it is, then hege and take the automatic payday.. you could even let it ride one more game and take better odds if Miami wins game 5. But if you could stomach a loss of this amount, LET IT RIDE MAN..!  If you told me you bet $1000, then that is most likely a hege situation as well..

I agree with him. I'm trying to build my bankroll and even if I make small bets, it more about learning how to win consistently. If you can flip 250 into 1000 or even 500 then after you practice money management (and stick to it)  you won't end up giving it all back. When you have more money in your bank you will have something that most gamblers don't.. self control, a winning record, and patience. This skill is much more valuable then flipping a quick 1000 or feeling like a high roller for a night.

  One day you will be able to play for larger amounts of money and win(having earned most of your bankroll. The covers league contests are great since you can see how sharp you really are without risking any money. Rome wasn't build in a day. I'm not trying to pay the bills gambling.. I would  like to be able to take a trip to vegas or have some extra spending money. I have tripled my tiny bankroll and gave it right back by putting most of it on one game because I thought I was in control or that it was a lock.. I've also won some of those crazy bets but in the long run it doesn't pay off.  Hedging to brake even or win slightly more money still makes the game exciting like BIZ321 mentioned
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#13
Posted: 6/15/2013 12:38:22 AM
Spurs in 6 +600
Spurs in 7 +500

$20 or $25 on each should be your only hedge
These lines give you a true value of +400 ($100 on each, if Spurs win you win at least $500 minus the other $100 bet) but then you ask yourself "why would the payout be so high for a team +240 to win a series tied 2-2?"

The answer is simple, they want you to hedge. Spurs lose. 
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#14
Posted: 6/15/2013 10:58:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 4headies:

Spurs in 6 +600
Spurs in 7 +500

$20 or $25 on each should be your only hedge
These lines give you a true value of +400 ($100 on each, if Spurs win you win at least $500 minus the other $100 bet) but then you ask yourself "why would the payout be so high for a team +240 to win a series tied 2-2?"

The answer is simple, they want you to hedge. Spurs lose. 

Completely false. You would be in for $200 to win either $500 or $400. Either a +250 or +200 return. 
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#15
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:06:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


Completely false. You would be in for $200 to win either $500 or $400. Either a +250 or +200 return. 

Sorry if I'm slow, but you're only in for $100 to win $500 and you're in $100 to win $600.  If either of them win your return is +400 or +500, depending on which.  Why would they be calculated together when they're still separate bets?
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#16
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:16:27 PM
Cause you can't win both... You are risking essentially $200 to win either $500 profit or $600 profit
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#17
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:16:56 PM
If you win one you lose the other...
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#18
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:22:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:


Sorry if I'm slow, but you're only in for $100 to win $500 and you're in $100 to win $600.  If either of them win your return is +400 or +500, depending on which.  Why would they be calculated together when they're still separate bets?

Because if the Heat win the series you lose $200. 
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#19
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:22:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Cause you can't win both... You are risking essentially $200 to win either $500 profit or $600 profit

It's $500 or $400 but you hit it well. 
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#20
Posted: 6/16/2013 12:20:19 AM
Oh, thought it was +600 spurs in 6 and +500 spurs in 7? According to previous post?

So if he bet $100 and spurs win in 6 he gets $600 profit on that single bet but loses$100 on the spurs in 7 so overall it would be a $500 profit..
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#21
Posted: 6/16/2013 12:21:30 AM
I guess I could of explained myself better, lol, I'm drunk so I didn't clarify lol
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#22
Posted: 6/16/2013 1:22:49 AM
I am in same situation but for 1000, you guys think I should hedge but my book dropped odds to +225... Instead of hedging and if I may suggest to the OP how about bet the Spurs to win tomorrow instead, I persinally hate hedgeing, but doing it this way is a half hedge, if Spurs win tomorrow, you will win the bet while Mia still win the series, but if Mia wins series most likely over execpt if Mia loses both at home then you would lose both bet... What you guys thinkj of this strategy???>
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#23
Posted: 6/16/2013 1:33:26 AM
I hate hedging, I always recommend sticking with it unless you are in dire need of money or its a ton of money at stake like a 40-1 longshot or something
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#24
Posted: 6/16/2013 1:35:06 AM
If you really think spurs will win and there's value or its a good price then go ahead but to bet it just to hedge I think is wrong
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#25
Posted: 6/16/2013 2:27:19 AM
iN TERMS of strategy would you guys agree its better to take Spurs to win tomorrow to pocket some guarantee cash, and hope Mia wins both in South Beach?  This way its like a middle, wit the chance to win both bets instead of hedging where you have to for sure give back some of your profit?
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