It turns out the Spurs are pretty tough coming off a loss, too

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: It turns out the Spurs are pretty tough coming off a loss, too
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:07:51 PM
The Spurs went 18-5 following a loss in the regular season.  If you throw out the four games they played with no rest, they went 18-1 following a loss.  If you throw out the final game of the regular season (a home game Pop threw to the T-Wolves by pulling his starters in the 3rd quarter so the likes of Aron Baynes could get 13 minutes on the floor), they went 18-0.  The Spurs have played two games in the playoffs following a loss.  Both were easy wins against the Warriors, 102-92 and 109-91.  So that's essentially a perfect 20-0 record for the Spurs this season when playing with rest off a loss. 


Those 20 wins resulted in a 13-7 ATS record, which is pretty good, but let's take a closer look at that.  Up until mid-March, the Spurs punished almost any opponent who had the misfortune of being on their schedule following any game the Spurs had just lost.  Thirteen of these 18 regular season bounceback games were played between the start of the season and March 11th.  The Spurs won all 13 while posting a 10-3 ATS record.  All ten covers were double-digit blowouts.  The 3 non-covers were a 4-point home win over the Grizzlies, a 5-point home win over the Hornets, and a 3-point home win over the Lakers.  The average margin of victory in the 13 wins was an intimidating 14.8 points per game.

Beginning around mid-March, Popovich began spreading minutes around to preserve his starters' legs for the playoff run.  The Spurs kept winning in this "rested off a loss" situation, but the margins became a lot slimmer.  In the last month of the season, they had home wins of 1 point (twice), 2 points, and 7 points (against the pathetic Kings). 


So it could be argued that if you threw out the last month of the regular season, a stretch in which the team was downshifted somewhat, the Spurs this season have gone 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS when playing off a loss as a rested team. 


Five of those 15 wins occurred following double-digit losses.  Here's what the Spurs did as a rested team up until mid-March and in the playoffs in that situation:


On November 7th, the Spurs lost to the Clippers in L.A., 106-84.  On November 9th, laying 6 at Sacramento, they won 97-86.

On January 3rd, the Spurs lost to the Knicks in New York, 100-83.  On January 5th, laying 13.5 at home to the Sixers, they won 109-86.

On February 8th, the Spurs lost to the Pistons in Detroit, 119-109.  On February 10th, laying 2.5 to the Nets in Brooklyn, they won 111-86.

On March 8th, the Spurs lost at home to the Blazers, 136-106.  On March 11th, laying 2 at home to the Thunder, they won 105-93.

On May 12th, the Spurs lost to the Warriors in Oakland, 97-87.  On May 14th, laying 6.5 at home to the Warriors, the Spurs won, 109-91.



So excluding the last month of the regular season, that's 5 wins by a combined 90 points for the Spurs as a rested team following a double-digit loss.  That's an average of exactly 18 points per game.  And here they are tonight, the Spurs playing again as a rested team off a double-digit loss, and they don't have to win by 18.  Three will be enough.
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:08:17 PM
For those interested in 1st half numbers, the Spurs went 17-3 SU & 13-7 ATS in the first halves of these 20 wins.  At the AT&T Center, they went 13-2 SU & 9-6 ATS. In the playoffs they've gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, missing a cover by the hook against the Warriors.
vasilli07 PM vasilli07
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:13:51 PM
Now we have Dan Crawford record v Spurs after a loss record. Will be interesting to see which theory will be right.
TheForbes777 PM TheForbes777
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:14:43 PM
I had this game capped at 104-101. Lets hope we're both right.
alecboyh PM alecboyh
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:17:32 PM
interesting info ...
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:17:49 PM
Too many people jumping on MIA tonight -- short memory for bettors and they can get MIA catching points?

Good post Bator
wiggins PM wiggins
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:20:06 PM
Great research.
ddjf PM ddjf
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:23:04 PM
BATOR!!!!!  i think spurs should not adjust to miller and allen playing. continue to d lebron. if u look at the numbers during season far and between when those two and chalmers have been key to victories. 33-5 run imo was a fluke. bosh shooting jumpers and wade uneven performances i will live with miller chalmers shooting 3s especially with next 3 at the alamo
linewatcher PM linewatcher
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:23:35 PM
Do you still believe the spurs take this series, lord bator?
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:31:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by linewatcher:

Do you still believe the spurs take this series, lord bator?





I believe we should be betting on whichever team lost the most recent game.  If these two teams keep trading wins, that'll mean a Game 7 in Miami, and I don't know who wins that one.  It'll be the Spurs "turn" to win, but on the other hand a Game 7 home team hasn't lost in the NBA Finals since prior to the Bird-Magic Era.
Sidekickz24 PM Sidekickz24
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:38:56 PM
The 2 of the 3 teams listed that played Spurs off double digit loss at home have road losing records besides Okc. Heat have the best road record in the league(29-12).
linewatcher PM linewatcher
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:48:02 PM
Theone324 PM Theone324
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:51:06 PM
Excellent stuff, was leaning towards a play on the Spurs as well just didn't know how much.  Are you entertaining 1st Q and 1st H plays or just throwing a chunk on the full game?  
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:56:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sidekickz24:

The 2 of the 3 teams listed that played Spurs off double digit loss at home have road losing records besides Okc. Heat have the best road record in the league(29-12).






And that has a lot to do with why tonight's line is -2 and not -13.5.



milky24 PM milky24
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:56:44 PM
IMO Spurs has to take Chalmers as another mission. This guy, we have to admit, has been second best next to Lebron this Playoffs. I can live with Wade and Bosh , they're on and off, but if you take Chalmers out of the game , Lebron might not have another player next to him that can make himself a shot. In addition, I think that SOME adjustments has to be made regarding the Heat's 3 point shooting.
Yes, Allen and Miller haven't been consistent, but you have to take them seriously unless you wanna start chasing the Heat again. Lebron penetrates and then looking for the outside shooters.

 Spurs can't let that happen. Lebron has to be guarded as he has been, that we all know. I believe in Pop that he'll know how to take the heat out of the Heat's flow. 

Only thing I don't get, is why people said the last game that Miami will win because they have to, and now no one says this about the Spurs? Yes, it's not the same situation, but as we all got to know Pop the last 15 years, he will be the most prepared person on the court. I have Spurs -2 too.
PobiegliBlisko PM PobiegliBlisko
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Posted: 6/11/2013 2:58:19 PM
Ha! Thats a masterful project.

You have shared that stat becouse you want to break it.
Today at covers, tomorrow at espn, next time in Heat crew heads.

And than you will win your Miami to win the trophy ticket.
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:05:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Theone324:

Excellent stuff, was leaning towards a play on the Spurs as well just didn't know how much.  Are you entertaining 1st Q and 1st H plays or just throwing a chunk on the full game?  






I didn't look at 1st quarter results, but I am considering a 1st half bet on the Spurs -1.  If I lose, I know I can unload on the Spurs at halftime knowing that in the 7 games where they failed to cover the 1st half line, the Spurs went 7-0 SU & ATS in the second halves.  The average 2nd half score was 51.0 to 39.7.
Theone324 PM Theone324
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:08:23 PM
Nuff said im rolling with them 1st Half and Game.  Haven't had much time to cap over the last week bc of work but you have done the work for me.    GL to us
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:08:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PobiegliBlisko:

Ha! Thats a masterful project.

You have shared that stat becouse you want to break it.
Today at covers, tomorrow at espn, next time in Heat crew heads.

And than you will win your Miami to win the trophy ticket.






Interesting theory, but no.  What I want is to win this very large bet(s) I'm going to place on the Spurs tonight.  I still regret betting the Heat -200 and -210 for the series. 
theclaw PM theclaw
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:11:03 PM

Interesting, I suspect that most strong teams making the finals would be good off loses.

32 of the 33 NBA champs since 1980 have won 2 games in a row at some point in the series, the lone exception, 1984 Celtics/Lakers.

With a 1-1 series tie, the game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 30 of 35 times or 85.7 %.

And that does not hold just  for NBA finals, it's roughly about 80-85 % in all playoff games.

Past 4 years is 22 of 26 or 84.6 %.

If the Heat are going to win this series, they'll highly, highly likely win 2 in a row at some point and lead after the 3 game ,  regardless of how good the Spurs may or may not be off a loss..................................................

The Heat have also responded with a double digit win anytime in the postseason a team has challenged them into thinking they would take the lead in the series after game 1....................................................................

Theone324 PM Theone324
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:12:40 PM
Completely irrelevant to the thread but what are your thoughts if any on the Rays tonight.  They have caught my eye as a best bet tonight on the diamond.  Thanks 
tonydan PM tonydan
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:20:35 PM
excellent info Mr. Bator.i believe Pop will have everyone ready for tonight's tilt.I will be on Spurs quite big. good luck to us 
dopeman PM dopeman
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:24:57 PM

great write up bator. Let's cash in on the spurs tonight.

 

MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:26:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

The Heat have also responded with a double digit win anytime in the postseason a team has challenged them into thinking they would take the lead in the series after game 1....................................................................





They beat the Bulls by 10 and the Pacers by 18.  In the 3 playoff runs they've had together, the Big Three are 5-1 SU & ATS when tied 1-1 in a series.  The one loss was that 94-75 egg they laid last year at Indiana.
DickyR PM DickyR
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Posted: 6/11/2013 3:34:16 PM

This is the kind of information desperately needed on a sports gambling forum. I can't remember the last time you took the time to make a post so detailed. I was already on the Spurs ML before reading your info. It's clearly the ONLY play tonight and a sprinkle on the 1st H too. I got a feeling this game could be a Tip to buzzer win for SA. Miami was very lucky last game. Spurs hung tight for 33 minutes. If the Heat bench does not produce tonight Heat have little chance. Bosh is just in a funk and we see Wade is just off. I also have to question how many deferred shots we saw with Lebron in game 2. SA has one of the very best home courts and home crowds. Best of luck tonight 2 us MrB. I think we will both be toasting come midnight.  
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