Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 3 of 11 «  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: one [WIN] a day, let's all help each other and get [PAID]
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#51
Posted: 5/3/2013 3:14:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rocklocks:

look dude i am all for team work but to give my honest assessment of my capping ability....Im probably nothing more than a jaryd bayless...I can get hot but at the end of the day im a role player. I can only pick my spots and take what the defense gives me. So i dont have a strong initial lean either way, just interested in hearing what u guys continue to say.




Who do you like in the NY/Boston game, and why?

Give it a shot.
quote
rocklocks send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rocklocks
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 201
Location:
#52
Posted: 5/3/2013 3:29:38 AM
Celtics

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TuTUVYzEVFg#!


quote
plevin15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
plevin15
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 504
Location: United States
#53
Posted: 5/3/2013 3:33:10 AM
Knicks are the better team but are playing on the road. BIG rivalry game and i don't see the Celtics going down easy at home. line is set just right and Knicks should play inspired ball and get their first series win in a long time.
Knicks
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#54
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:33:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by plevin15:

Knicks are the better team but are playing on the road. BIG rivalry game and i don't see the Celtics going down easy at home. line is set just right and Knicks should play inspired ball and get their first series win in a long time.
Knicks


I respect your opinion yet I can't get away from the fact that Boston has proven champions, great coaching, and will be at home in Boston on a Friday night versus Jr Smith and Carmelo Anthony, essentially. Give me the proven team at Home with something to fight for in this spot.
quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#55
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:00:48 AM

A good read for some of you new or casual bettors out there:

Sports betting is full of traps for the casual bettor. Sportsbooks are in the business of making money, so they have to find as many ways as they can to siphon the money out of unprotected wallets. Smart bettors – or those who aspire to be – can recognize some of those traps and work hard to avoid them. Here are six of the most common traps bettors fall into:

Betting parlays or exotics – Sportsbooks love parlays, teasers and every other type of exotic bets that offer big potential payouts. That's why they promote them so heavily at every opportunity. Their love comes from two places. First, bettors love the bets thanks to the promise of big payouts, so the bets produce a lot of revenue. More significantly, the odds for these bets are stacked strongly in favor of the books. The potential payouts for most exotic bets are less – and often far less – than the risk involved in the bets, so over the long term the books can't lose. In fact, over the long term they are all but guaranteed to make a killing on these bets. Smart bettors hate making bets in which they don't have a solid edge – an expectation over the long term of making a profit – so they are very cautious about these bets, and only bet them in the very rare cases where they make good sense.


Taking the first number he sees – A lot of casual bettors focus their efforts on deciding who is going to win the game or cover the spread. That's important, of course, but just as important is making sure that you are getting the best line you can possibly get in every circumstance. There are some books out there that throughout unattractive lines in hopes of luring unsuspecting bettors in. Most books have better lines in some sports or some circumstances than others. Even a have point on a spread, or a few points of juice, can make a huge difference to your bottom line over the course of the season. Smart bettors know this and seek out the best line they can – and don't bet when they don't find the line they like. Casual bettors just bet the games they want to bet at almost any price.

Buying into hype – Smart bettors know that the only thing that matters is the handicapping – what their analysis says about a game and how it should turn out. Casual bettors will often look beyond that handicapping and buy into the hype that the media is spreading – a player who is hot, a team that seems great on paper, a flashy trade, an injury, and so on. Oddsmakers are far from stupid, so if they know that the public is going to be overly excited about a team for some reason then chances are they will adjust the line in their favor. That doesn't mean that you can't bet on a heavily hyped team – sometimes hype is justified. It just means that you need to be aware of the situation, and comfortable with the fact that the line could be worse than it would otherwise be in this situation.

Accepting what he reads without evaluation – There is a virtually endless supply of insight and analysis online, in print, and on radio and TV. You would have to be blind and deaf to avoid it. There's nothing wrong at all with reading and listening and watching as much as you want to watch – knowledge is a good thing. Where people get in trouble, though, is when they accept what they hear without question. A lot of what you read and here is pretty good, but a fair bit of it isn't particularly accurate. Smart bettors don't act on anything until they have confirmed that it is true for themselves.

Favoring some teams – It's no secret that some teams are just more attractive and interesting than others. It's way easier to get excited about the Colts than the Bills, for example. Casual bettors get seduced by the interesting games and bet on them more often than the rest of the teams. Smart bettors know that the less interest there is in a game the more chance there is that there can be good value in that game. They know that at the end of the day your results aren't based on how interesting a game is, but how many bets you win and lose. Smart bettors, then, look for the games they can win, not the ones that they care about.


Betting the better team – Casual bettors think that the point of handicapping a game is to figure out which team is better. That's far from the truth. Smart bettors know that the point is actually to figure out how the chances of the teams relate to the odds that are available, and where the value is as a result. Smart bettors don't care at all about betting on the better team – they care about betting on the team that gives them the better chance of making a profit.

quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#56
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:04:05 AM

Another good article for you to read:

One of the terms we heard thrown about a lot when it comes to sports betting is 'smart money'. It's a very important concept for sports bettors to understand, but it's largely misunderstood and misused.

Simply put, the smart money is the money bet by the sharps. Sharps can be defined in a number of ways, but basically they are the professional sports bettors who have better knowledge, do more and better research, have bigger bankrolls, and have a better long term expectation of profit than the typical bettor. Another way to look at it is that the smart money is the opposite of the public money, and the public money is what the large majority of bettors bet.


The single most important thing to know about smart money is that sports books are very good at identifying it and knowing how it is acting (i.e. where and when it is being bet on a particular game) and how it is likely to act in the future. Books do not like losing money, and they know that because smart money is being bet with the intention of making a long term profit and backed with the knowledge to do so. That means that they are going to be far more afraid of smart money than they are of public money – because there is a long term expectation that the public will lose the money they bet. That in turn means that books will respond much faster to the smart money – by adjusting their odds to balance action – far more quickly than they will typically respond to the public money.

Another thing to keep in mind when looking at smart money is that there aren't nearly as many sharps out there are people think they are. People who bet on sports have egos – they have to or they wouldn't be interested in trying to predict the future and outsmart the oddsmakers. Because of those egos the large majority of sports bettors think that they have a much bigger edge than they actually do, and that they are far more insightful and effective handicappers than they actually are. Smart money can be very useful to observe, and can show you valuable ways to act, but it is very important that you are reasonably sure you are actually seeing the smart money in action before you do so – not just the action of someone who thinks that he is sharp but really isn't.

Why is the smart money important for average bettors? For one thing the smart money is what is going to move the odds in a game. If you can have a sense of which side the smart money is on and how aggressively it is on that side then you can time your bets to get the best possible price for your opinion. That might sound complicated, but it really isn't. Let's say for example that your handicapping has led you to really like a three point underdog in a football game. If the smart money is on your side of the game as well then the odds are only going to get worse for you – you're team will become two point underdogs or worse. In that case it would make sense to make the bet as soon as you can to get the best price – especially if you can bet to get the key number on your side. On the other hand, if the smart money is on the other side then there is a good chance that the odds for your side are only going to get better the longer you wait, so there is no reason to bet before you have to.

That brings up an important point to remember – smart money wins more often than the public money, but it still loses fairly often. Over the long term there isn't anyone that can beat the point spread more than 60 percent of the time. That means that about four out of 10 smart money bets are going to be losers. Some bettors use smart money as a guide and refuse to bet against it. That just limits your opportunities. If the smart money is clearly on the other side of a game than you are then you should definitely look at the game again to make sure you are confident in your position, but if your handicapping supports your position and you trust it then there is no reason not to make your bet. As I said before, betting against the smart money can help you get great prices.

Smart money can also be useful to spot particularly interesting games. You can't just look up a website that will tell you where the smart money is in every game, but there are ways that you can easily spot it. One of the best ways is to look for games where the large majority of bets have been placed on one team – more than 70 percent of all bets. When that happens we would typically expect the line to move to make the side that all of those bets are on less attractive. In some games, though, the line will actually move to make that side more attractive. That means that even though most of the bets are on one side the books aren't afraid of taking even more action on that side. That probably means that the smart money is on the side that the public isn't on. That, in turn, means that the team that the smart money on is probably worth a very close look. That's especially true when the line in question has moved through one of the key numbers of three or seven.


One final thought about smart money – timing can be very important. Once you get comfortable with it you can spot where the smart money is being played reasonably easy. It often takes a while to spot the action, though, and often times you can't spot it until after the action has been laid and the line has moved. If you bet on the same side that the smart money has bet on then you are doing it at a different price than they got, and you may not be getting any value. You certainly won't be getting as much value as the smart money did. For that reason it is very important not to rely on what the smart money is doing too much – unless you have access to their research and the bets they are making just as they make it you aren't going to have the same success they are. In short, pay attention to smart money, but be sure to do it very cautiously.

quote
MRxKrazz
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
MRxKrazz
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 6164
Location: Nevada
#57
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:07:56 AM
Good stuff bro!!! Keep up the great work
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#58
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:25:11 AM
This article may be helpful to some of you also:

There are two types of teams that have been eliminated from NBA playoff contention before the season ends – those that are still playing hard and being competitive, and those that are just mailing it in and waiting for the end of the season to put them out of their misery. Being able to tell which teams fit into which categories is an important skill for bettors down the stretch. It can allow them to get some fat moneyline winners if the team is trying hard, and to cash in on betting favorites if they are just mailing it in. Here are five ways you can start to determine which category a given team belongs in:


Statistical comparison of last 10 games to the season – I am a big believer in comparing recent performance to season long performance. The betting public relies heavily on the most easily available statistics, and those are season long ones – the types published in the paper and on popular websites. The problem, though, is that by the end of the season the sample size is quite large, and the earliest games in that sample occurred months earlier. A team could be playing much better or worse now than they have been overall, but it might not be accurately reflected in that record. To counter that I like to compare some basic statistics from the whole season – shooting percentage, eFG, assists/turnovers and so on – to how the team has performed over their last 10 games. If the numbers are basically the same then the team is probably basically the one we have seen all year. If there is a significant difference, though, then we have an interesting situation. If the last 10 games' stats are significantly better then we have a situation where the team could quietly be improved recently, and that could lead to value as the team exceeds public expectations. If the recent numbers are well below the season numbers then the team could really be packing it in, and there could be value in betting the favorites – perhaps even in betting them at a big price.

Roster changes – Teams that are still trying hard and looking to win even though the playoffs are out of the question are going to be making roster decisions that give them the best chance of winning. Their starters will still be playing fill minutes, and their bench will be used in about the same way that it always has been. Teams that are mailing it in are far more likely to make changes. Star players could be given games off, or could be relegated to the bench much earlier in the game than normal. Young or fringe players could be given much more playing time so teams can assess what they have going forward. Teams that want to win put their best possible roster forward, while teams looking forward to next year usually don't.

Status of coach – The surest sign of which category a team fits in comes down to how stable the coach in his job. If the guy is making progress and is clearly popular with his players and well entrenched in his position then there is a good chance that the team will be playing well for him because he will be able to communicate that the struggles now are a step towards progress. If the coach is clearly about to lose his job, or if it even appears likely, then it is far less likely that the players will play well for him because they have no reason to. A team with a coach who is about to be fired is very likely a team that is going to struggle down the stretch. There is a rare exception to that, though. If the coach is likely to get fired but is loved by his players then there is a chance that the team will play extra hard down the stretch to try to save him. That can happen, but it is by far the exception to the rule.

Health – If a team is beat up and injured then it will be very hard for them to get motivated down the stretch. Teams that have struggled with injuries all season could be too frustrated to care anymore by the end of the season. On the other hand, if an injured player finally returns to action then he could give the team a boost down the stretch. You need to look at the overall health of the roster, and at changes in the roster as a result of injuries.


Is there still something to play for? – Sports fans are intensely focused on the playoffs – like that's the only thing that matters. Sometimes, though, teams know going into the season that they aren't likely to make the playoffs. If that's the case but they are moving in a positive direction then they could still have a lot to play for even once the playoff dream is dead. Can they win more games than they did last year, or more games than they have won in the last five years? Can they double their win total from last year? Do they have a chance to reach significant statistical milestones as a team – like having a top five defense or offense? Is a star player or a team leader on the verge of a major achievement in his career? Any one of these factors can provide major motivation for the team despite the fact that their season will end when the regular season does.


quote
LucaBrasi777 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LucaBrasi777
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 38
Location:
#59
Posted: 5/3/2013 10:46:41 AM

I like hawks -1.5 or ML

 

Pacer shooting 37% on the road, and have really not shown anything worth taking.......I think the ATL crowd will be jumping tonight....home team looks like the fav in this series

quote
M0n3y2BMad3
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
M0n3y2BMad3
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 633
Location:
#60
Posted: 5/3/2013 10:51:24 AM
Boston and okc today enough said 
quote
MakeAKilling send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
MakeAKilling
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 15
Location:
#61
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:33:12 AM
Im lovin the OKC odds at +1. Tony are you going with OKC ML tonight?
quote
ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ShadowWarrior
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7067
Location: Hawaii
#62
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:58:29 AM
OKC at Houston without RW.  Houston, we may have a problem!
NYK at Boston.  Is this another Yankee collapse?
Tough calls all the way around.  I like Clips but Blake is hobbling and maybe Grizz want revenge for last year.
Can not figure Atl/Ind series.

Had GS last nite and was sweating my balls after they had a 18 pt. lead in the 4th qtr. and nearly gave the game away
quote
ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ShadowWarrior
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7067
Location: Hawaii
#63
Posted: 5/3/2013 12:00:51 PM
Good calls btw on your 2-0 start.  Hope OKC makes it 3-0 for you today!  GL!
quote
spazbite send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
spazbite
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 54
Location:
#64
Posted: 5/3/2013 12:06:36 PM
I like Boston tonight as well just depends on if melo can sink some of his high percentage of shots taken or not. That is the question!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
sweeep send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sweeep
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 77
Location:
#65
Posted: 5/3/2013 12:50:10 PM
okc it is....Theyve been there! and they will be there again.
quote
plevin15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
plevin15
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 504
Location: United States
#66
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:10:31 PM
i liked okc a lot but after watching the games without RW, hou looks like the better team right now playing with more confidence. this is a difficult card today...
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
plevin15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
plevin15
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 504
Location: United States
#67
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:18:39 PM
one more thought on the IND / ATL game. IND never wins in ATL.
NETS never win in CHI (until last night)
IND is the better team and being such a small road dog, imo IND has a good chance of getting over the hump and getting that win in ATL...
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ShadowWarrior
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7067
Location: Hawaii
#68
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:26:56 PM
Boston will be rocking,  Atlanta goes as far as Teague can take them.  Chicago has too many hurt players to advance.  OKC can and may win.  Harden has strep throat and Jeremy L. has not played. Elimination games are tough.  Like GS last nite or Chicago yesterday.  The Grizz/Clips over looks inviting.  All on the line, can not hold back.  I think it goes over as it has been a tough defensive series, and Griz not usually a potent offensive but I think this goes over as 180 seems a bit low. 
quote
plevin15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
plevin15
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 504
Location: United States
#69
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:32:13 PM
liking the over 180 griz too as griz can play up tempo and seem to like to push the ball against the clips. over paid in their last game as well
BOL WITH YOUR PLAYS
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
composite send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
composite
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3888
Location:
#70
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:48:29 PM

Awesome articles Tony!  One question about the "smart money" and line movement. I've seen plenty of games where line movement moved toward one team, and the other team covered easily. In short, line movement was wrong.  If I tried betting on line movement alone, I'd probably lose over the long haul -- not because I'd bet after the line moved, but because the line movement itself was wrong about 50% of the time at least.

How can you discern when "smart money" moves lines vs the public moving lines?

quote
alecboyh
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
alecboyh
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 4482
Location: Mexico
#71
Posted: 5/3/2013 2:25:13 PM
Houston ... the line say that oddsmakers expect the Rockets to win ... Houston playin with confidence, OKC strugglin right now ... Scott Brooks hasnt adjusted ... Why a #1 seed is gettin +1 against the #8 seed??? ... maybe Im wrong, but my money is on the Rockets

Atlanta ... the classic series where the home team dominates ... enough said ...

Boston vs NY ... too tough to call ... I like Boston ... but Im not very sure about it ...

Memphis ... Clip show look lost since Game 3 ... Grizz playin really well right now ... dont like Vinny del Negro as a coach, no adjusments at all ... Griffin's injury a big deal, ask the Bulls, Lakers and Thunder abou it ... Grizzly Bear is my pick ...


quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#72
Posted: 5/3/2013 4:30:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alecboyh:

Houston ... the line say that oddsmakers expect the Rockets to win ... Houston playin with confidence, OKC strugglin right now ... Scott Brooks hasnt adjusted ... Why a #1 seed is gettin +1 against the #8 seed??? ... maybe Im wrong, but my money is on the Rockets

Atlanta ... the classic series where the home team dominates ... enough said ...

Boston vs NY ... too tough to call ... I like Boston ... but Im not very sure about it ...

Memphis ... Clip show look lost since Game 3 ... Grizz playin really well right now ... dont like Vinny del Negro as a coach, no adjusments at all ... Griffin's injury a big deal, ask the Bulls, Lakers and Thunder abou it ... Grizzly Bear is my pick ...




The books don't set lines to predict the outcome of the game, they set the lines to what they think (or how they want) the action to come in on the game. In this case yes that line implies that Houston will stay hot James Harden will keep nailing 3's and OKC will not adjust to the last 0-2 trend. It doesn't mean it will play out that way, the line is simply set to get the action in their favor.

NY/Boston is a no play.

Pacers/Hawks no play.

LA/Memphis no play.


quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#73
Posted: 5/3/2013 4:43:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by plevin15:

i liked okc a lot but after watching the games without RW, hou looks like the better team right now playing with more confidence. this is a difficult card today...


If you see it as difficult then its best to take a day off, you can't lose
what you don't put in. There's plenty of action left in the Playoffs, nothing wrong with using games as research (not wagering) and using the results to your advantage later on down the road when its more clear.
quote
FrogRage send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
FrogRage
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 814
Location: United Kingdom
#74
Posted: 5/3/2013 4:48:53 PM
Houston -1 is a gift tonight. dont over think this game.
quote
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tony2toes
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 3057
Location: United States
#75
Posted: 5/3/2013 5:10:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by plevin15:

one more thought on the IND / ATL game. IND never wins in ATL.
NETS never win in CHI (until last night)
IND is the better team and being such a small road dog, imo IND has a good chance of getting over the hump and getting that win in ATL...


Agreed on Indy yet to go against an 0-13 trend in this spot is tough. If they hung in there closer, had more fight the last 2 games
at Atlanta, then yes its worth a wager.
Best to wait if you're on the Pacers and go with Game 7

"a good chance" is all relative to how much money you're wagering.
quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 3 of 11 «  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.