New service

Forum: NBA Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: New service
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/1/2013 11:33:49 PM
I've been a professional handicapper for 10 years now. My handicapping has been pretty consistent over those 10 years. I've had one losing season in NBA (-2.5 units). I've considered selling my picks but I do not currently have the infrastructure and most sites that i've talked to are fraudulent at best. I am offering my picks for free for the rest of this season (My season starts in January- after which I believe the stats are more meaningful). Should I continue to win as I have in the past, I would appreciate a donation. Whatever you wish to cmgdgs@gmail.com via paypal. Keep in mind my winning % has averaged 57.7%. Not the greatest, but consistent flat betting yields great results. Always risk the same amount, not "to win". For tracking purposes, I will use $1 units. The reality is my units are much larger but this makes it simple. All I ask is that you track me when I'm hot and cold. If all goes well like I expect, I'll put up a professional service next year. Don't complain when the inevitable losing streaks come. It happens but you just have to be disciplined and keep betting the SAME unit sizes (I recommend 4% or less- I use 2%). I'll post the picks here and the records here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc&usp=sharing

Here are my picks for 3-2-13

 


cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/1/2013 11:35:57 PM
I copy and pasted from my spreadsheet.. I guess it did't post

but here's the pick

Portland -10
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/1/2013 11:44:48 PM
The picks will usually be released prior to 12pm on game day pacific time unless there is an early game.  If not, there are no picks for the day. I do have an adjustment to the picks after more number crunching. Occasionally I will have 2 unit picks- probably fewer than 30 times a year. I've moved portland up to a 2 unit pick and have also added phi -1

Portland -10 x 2 units
Phi -1 x 1 unit



ILPRATO PM ILPRATO
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Posted: 3/1/2013 11:55:56 PM
if your hitting close to 58% why sell your picks?????????

You should be on easy street.
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/2/2013 12:31:57 AM
Easy..as my handle shows..I'm a dg or Degenerate...I have it figured out on NBA but I tend to stray away in other sports (especially mlb) haha. Also, I've been kicked off dimes and bookmaker a few times. Just to give you some real experience, just go back to my 2011 and 2012 seasons. 2012 was not good at 141-122 (+6 units at -110). I was 85-61 in 2011. That's a net of 16 units at -110 for 2011 and 6 for 2012 for a  total of 22 units. How much do i have to bet to make a decent living??? I make 2% a unit bets...not as easy as you think. Should I succeed in this, my goal is simply to limit the subscribers and have some consistent income. Its not easy living when you go through the inevitable slumps. The fear of not coming out of the slump is always there....
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/3/2013 12:01:31 PM

I've been a professional handicapper for 10 years now. My handicapping has been pretty consistent over those 10 years. I've had one losing season in NBA (-2.5 units). I've considered selling my picks but I do not currently have the infrastructure and most sites that i've talked to are fraudulent at best. I am offering my picks for free for the rest of this season (My season starts in January- after which I believe the stats are more meaningful). Should I continue to win as I have in the past, I would appreciate a donation. Whatever you wish to cmgdgs@gmail.com via paypal. Keep in mind my winning % has averaged 57.7%. Not the greatest, but consistent flat betting yields great results. Always risk the same amount, not "to win". For tracking purposes, I will use $1 units. The reality is my units are much larger but this makes it simple. All I ask is that you track me when I'm hot and cold. If all goes well like I expect, I'll put up a professional service next year. Don't complain when the inevitable losing streaks come. It happens but you just have to be disciplined and keep betting the SAME unit sizes (I recommend 4% or less- I use 2%). I'll post the picks here and the records here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc&usp=sharing

We started off on the right foot by going 2-0 for 2.73 (one was 2 unit bet) units. Good luck.

Here are my picks for 3-3-13:

Charlotte +7.5

Phi +5.5

Okc +2.5

 

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/3/2013 12:15:29 PM

Three added picks:

NY Knicks +4

Orlando +7.5

NY/MIA Under 195.5

 

OKC clips is tempting too but I have too much on the board already so I'll pass on that one.

 

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/3/2013 12:22:30 PM
I meant the okc/clips under is tempting...but I'll pass.
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/4/2013 1:29:50 PM
Went 3-3.

Today's I've got one pick but its for 2 units.

Mia -9.5 x 2 units

Records at the following google spreadsheet link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc#gid=1
WizrduvOdz PM WizrduvOdz
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Posted: 3/4/2013 1:43:35 PM
2nd day and youre already playing 6 games in a day... Not trying to come off as a basher, but isnt that a little high for a professional gambler?  Or at least a consistently successful one?  Good luck with the donations
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/4/2013 4:02:07 PM
Of course you're right. I knew I had a ton of the board. I don't question my numbers though. For example today. I hate having to take mia at -9.5 on the road, especially for 2 units (which is unusual too)- but i've learned not to question what I have. It all works out in the end. Sometimes I'll have zero plays for days...
composite PM composite
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Posted: 3/4/2013 4:14:43 PM

Miami -9.5 on the road?  After a big double-digit comeback win at MSG in a revenge situation? After another big win @ home vs Memphis when they were trailing as well?

Minnesota sucks, but this seems like a horrible spot for the Heat.  I'm really curious what factors favor Miami here. And enough for 2 units?

composite PM composite
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composite
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Posted: 3/4/2013 4:16:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

if your hitting close to 58% why sell your picks?????????

You should be on easy street.

I don't worked the numbers, but with offshore accounts creating low betting limits and such, isn't it hard to win truly big money as a gambler?

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/4/2013 4:29:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Miami -9.5 on the road?  After a big double-digit comeback win at MSG in a revenge situation? After another big win @ home vs Memphis when they were trailing as well?

Minnesota sucks, but this seems like a horrible spot for the Heat.  I'm really curious what factors favor Miami here. And enough for 2 units?



Tell me about it. I use a strictly quantitative model that looks at 3 different aspects of the game:

Fundamentals: matching up the numbers
Technicals: trends, trends, trends..
Sentiment: What is the publicly thinking? I have a few situations I look for...

And I agree w/ you...this is one of those bets that I cringe having to place- especially at two units. However, I've learned to do it without thinking. Over the years, as big a fan as I am, I've also learned NOT to watch the games I bet on. Its pointless as the results are going to be the results. What I do find is that it is less stressful and helps prevent me going on tilt following some inevitable bad beats...
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/4/2013 4:34:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

I don't worked the numbers, but with offshore accounts creating low betting limits and such, isn't it hard to win truly big money as a gambler?



I wish that was the case. As I mentioned in an earlier post "Just to give you some real experience, just go back to my 2011 and 2012 seasons. 2012 was not good at 141-122 (+6 units at -110). I was 85-61 in 2011. That's a net of 16 units at -110 for 2011 and 6 for 2012 for a  total of 22 units. How much do i have to bet to make a decent living???" You'd have to bet 10k to make a decent living there and look at how uneven that is. In 2011, u'd make 160k while in 2012 you make 60k. I DON"T make bets w/ that kind of size. Try even moving money online these days with a fraction of that size...its tough. I miss Pinacle....
composite PM composite
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composite
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Posted: 3/4/2013 5:10:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cmgdgs:



Tell me about it. I use a strictly quantitative model that looks at 3 different aspects of the game:

Fundamentals: matching up the numbers
Technicals: trends, trends, trends..
Sentiment: What is the publicly thinking? I have a few situations I look for...

And I agree w/ you...this is one of those bets that I cringe having to place- especially at two units. However, I've learned to do it without thinking. Over the years, as big a fan as I am, I've also learned NOT to watch the games I bet on. Its pointless as the results are going to be the results. What I do find is that it is less stressful and helps prevent me going on tilt following some inevitable bad beats...

GL.  With your record the quantitative models must have something going for them.  But the public is all over Miami (74% according to Vegasinsider) and it's a bad, bad situation for Miami. 

For the record, I'm taking Minnesota 1H. I'm hoping Heat coast as usual in the 1H.

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/5/2013 12:24:45 PM
We won our one bet yesterday for 2 units. If it was me, I woudn't have made that bet- especially for 2 units. This is why I use numbers instead of my knucklehead brain to pick my bets. =) I have nothing today.

Mia -9.5 x 2 units- win +1.92.
We are 6-3 so far but also winning both our 2 unit bets. That puts us at a +4.28 units.

Records at the following google spreadsheet link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc#gid=1


I've been a professional handicapper for 10 years now. My handicapping has been pretty consistent over those 10 years. I've had one losing season in NBA (-2.5 units). I've considered selling my picks but I do not currently have the infrastructure and most sites that i've talked to are fraudulent at best. I am offering my picks for free for the rest of this season (My season starts in January- after which I believe the stats are more meaningful). Should I continue to win as I have in the past, I would appreciate a donation. Whatever you wish to cmgdgs@gmail.com via paypal. Keep in mind my winning % has averaged 57.7%. Not the greatest, but consistent flat betting yields great results. Always risk the same amount, not "to win". For tracking purposes, I will use $1 units. The reality is my units are much larger but this makes it simple. All I ask is that you track me when I'm hot and cold. If all goes well like I expect, I'll put up a professional service next year. Don't complain when the inevitable losing streaks come. It happens but you just have to be disciplined and keep betting the SAME unit sizes (I recommend 4% or less- I use 2%).
composite PM composite
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composite
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Posted: 3/5/2013 12:35:26 PM
nice call. 
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/6/2013 11:52:51 AM

I have 3 plays today all for 1 unit each:

 

3/6/20133/6/20133/6/2013
Golden State 1 -11
Washington 1 -2
Utah 1 -1

 

Good luck.

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/8/2013 2:21:03 PM
Wednesday went really well at 0-3! Oh well. Comes w the territory. There were no plays yesterday. Today is a strange day. I can't remember the last time I had TWO 2-unit plays in a day but here it is:

3/8/2013    19:00:00    Indiana     -9.5 x 2 units
3/8/2013    19:30:00    Memphis     -5.5 x 2 units

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc#gid=1
GotTheCall PM GotTheCall
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GotTheCall
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Posted: 3/8/2013 2:24:39 PM
gtfo 
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/9/2013 12:29:05 PM
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/9/2013 12:30:10 PM
We won our games yesterday.
3/8/2013    19:00:00    Indiana     -9.5 x 2 units
3/8/2013    19:30:00    Memphis     -5.5 x 2 units

Today I have one play.

-15.5

cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/9/2013 12:31:08 PM
Man this posting stinks. I can't copy and paste from my spreadsheet. I have one game today and its Denver -15.5.
cmgdgs PM cmgdgs
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Posted: 3/10/2013 12:45:37 AM
Won the Den -15.5 play today. I have 3 plays for Sunday. The dal/min line isn't out yet so that could potentially be a play i will release tomorrow if it the numbers are right.

Sunday:
Mil +1
Cle +5.5
Ind +7

The complete records are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsESQpRaMWACdGNZQzl6Ul9yYTg2U3k5ckJWRWVyZnc#gid=1

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