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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 2/12/13 NBA Hoops. Toronto.
swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
swolesbee
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#1
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:51:29 PM
January 57-51 53%
February: 6-16 -22.5 units

10* Raptors -1.5

The Raptors +2 was really the only play I REALLY liked on today's card. I went back and watched the Nugget's and Raptors last 2 games, and also their previous match-up this year in Denver. Some things to point out in that game:

-Denver led by double digits the majority of the game until the Raptors made a late run.
-Denver really hurt the Raptors on the offensive boards.
****Karl played Faried along with another big(Koufos/Mcgee) together, for almost the entire game. (Wislon Chandler was still out).
***(I don't think he will be able to do that in this game with the injuries)
-Iguadala's defense,and Gallinari's length REALLY affected Demar Derozan's game.
-Bargnani was a big time offensive threat. He killed Toronto by playing some bad defense and getting outrebounded but the Nuggets didn't have anyone to guard him. If Faried guarded him he scored down low. If a center guarded him he went out on the perimeter. He did work all game.
-The Raptors missed a lot of open shots.
-Alan Anderson didn't play.
-Valencuinas was a beast.

 I was thinking that Lowry peaking right now, as well as getting Rudy Ga_Y(another attacker of the paint/slasher) would be enough to propel Toronto to get the win here but I decided to lay off since Bargnani was out, and Derozan's struggles against Iggy/Gallinari. Then I read Iguadala, Gallinari are out, and Bargnani was playing and I ran to my computer lol. This changes everything. Bargnani playing, and the other 2 out is worth MUCH more than 3.5 points in my opinion.

Raptors post Rudy trade:

I am using the Rudy happy trade time-frame as a barometer, but honestly them getting Bargnani and Valencuinas back together has REALLY helped them. They now have an INCRDIBLE bench and a good interior presence  at all times. They have been better rebounding the ball as well. The mindset of the team has completely changed. With Calderon they were a soft team. They didn't ever look to run even after turnovers, they relied on offense execution of their sets to score points. Calderon was a controller. He didn't make mistakes, but the offense rarely made any big plays or wow plays. Before the trade, Derozan was really the only guard that attacked the paint with any consistency. Now the team is physical. happy, Derozan, and Lowery all attack the rim-HARD. They draw fouls, they are tough minded. Both those guys have been in playoff battles, they bring a different intensity both offensive and defensive to the Raptors. Amir can start now-and he has blossomed. Him being able to settle into that role has really helped him and Valencuinas is an absolute physical monster that nobody knows about. This team is night and day different now.

Most people can see that when they watch the Raptors. What I have also noticed that has probably gone unseen by the casual fan and will play a prominent role in tonight's game is the effect that the G ay trade has had on their transition game.

Calderon never looked to run even after turnovers. If he was in transition he shot a pull-up jumper lol. Derozan was the only good finisher on the break but because they never ran he never got to showcase that. Add Lowry, a bowling ball who throws himself into defenders/at the rim and will push the ball any time he senses blood in the water, and Rudy happy, another top 10 fast break finisher and the script has been flipped so to speak. The Raptors were near the bottom of every transition category before the trade but check this out:

In their last 5 games the Raptors are averaging:
1.26 PPP in transition offense (1st in the NBA)
 .91 ppp in transition defense (1st in the NBA)
****Stats from Synergy sports

Obviously 5 games is a very small sample size, but the big difference is exciting and it can be seen with the naked eye and statistically. Rudy happy has enhanced the offense in many ways but being a rugged defender he has really helped their over-all defense and especially their transition defense.

This will be the biggest factor in tonight's game in my opinion. The perception is that Toronto won't be able to run with Denver but the reality is that when the game is slowed down to the half-court the Raptors have a clear advantage-BUT when the tempo speeds up they have the advantage too.

With Iggy and Gallinari out look for Derozan, Lowry and happy to attack the rim hard all night. Denver doesn't have the pieces to stop them.  They will live in the paint and the free throw line. The only decent defender on the roster now is Brewer and he is more of a gambling steals guy than a keep his man in front of him guy. When Karl goes small with Miller and Lawson they will only have 1 3 point threat on the outside (Chandler) and Miller won't be able to post up on Lowry, Derozan, or happy, and in fact Derozan and happy should have lots of success attacking the diminutive Denver back court.

Denver is a great offensive rebounding team but a poor defensive rebounding team. Toronto is now a good defensive rebounding team and an EXCELLENT offensive rebounding team. You will see that with Valencounas and Johnson starting tonight.

The Raptors bench should destroy the Nuggets bench. Lucas, Anderson, Ross, Bargnani, can al REALLY fill it up.
Dwayne Casey is the better coach.

The Raptors have an advantage tonight in every facet of the game tonight and I expect a win here.

Some other stats:
Nuggets on the road in the New year
avg. 1.03 ppp on offense
avg. 1.03 ppp on defense

Raptors in the last 5 games
avg. 1.04 PPP on offense (impressive considering Miami, Boston, and Indiana in that stretch).
avg. .99 ppp on defense

Raptors were a play away from beating a hot Boston team at home but the Celtics played perfect basketball down the stretch. They then went into Indiana and WON. They played 2 of the hottest and best defensive teams in the league and played terrific. I don't think the market has caught up to how good they are now.

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austintx11 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:59:46 PM
Chasing? 10*?
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#3
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:03:32 PM
Appreciate the play.   Would like to see you around for the long haul.  You already said your plays would be 1-5*...  chasing will make you broke.  
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#4
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:04:48 PM
Where on Synergy Sports does it give Last 5 games stats, or did you calculate them manually?
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#5
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:05:42 PM
great write-up, bol swolesbee  
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#6
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:08:42 PM
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swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
swolesbee
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#7
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:09:35 PM
Naa. Just really like it. This is the first time I've done that in 1.5 months. Don't freak out lol.
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#8
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:14:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dr_Baseball:

Where on Synergy Sports does it give Last 5 games stats, or did you calculate them manually?


type in: Tor for toronto. Don't actually type in the whole word toronto. Lol that make sense? When you do that, you will see a list of all their games. Synergy Sports actually breaks down EVERY NBA play of EVERY NBA game. Go look at all their PPP stats for transition both for and against. Add em up for their last 5 games, divide by 5. Then compare them to Miami who is the best on the year.



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Getty3
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#9
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:14:34 PM
You're a smart guy with great write ups. This is just a very tough game to get a handle on. Several much better games to bet. Best of Luck, I hope it hits. 
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#10
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:56:04 PM
THANK YOU FOR THE WRITE UPS. 
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swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
swolesbee
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#11
Posted: 2/12/2013 11:25:23 PM
Damn.
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#12
Posted: 2/12/2013 11:42:23 PM
damn dude, you have excellent writeups but bad luck. no doubt you will get it going soon.stay positive 
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#13
Posted: 2/12/2013 11:44:40 PM
It's as if the Evil Lord Gamblore caught swolesbee leering at his hot 17-year old daughter.  Perhaps more than once.
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#14
Posted: 2/12/2013 11:51:50 PM
Your mney management sucks. 10u c'mon man
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#15
Posted: 2/12/2013 11:57:29 PM
@MrBator   


@austintx11  shut the darn up,you are the biggest nuisance on the site.
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swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#16
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:07:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonydan:

@MrBator   


@austintx11  shut the darn up,you are the biggest nuisance on the site.


It's all good. ATx is right. Lol and I don't mind. I'm from Austin.
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