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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Johnson's NBA Tuesday 2/12
CMJohnson1
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#1
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:08:50 PM
OVERALL RECORD:  160-146 (+14.15u)

Record vs. Spread/ML:  79-75  (+4.15u)
Record vs. O/U:  80-69  (+11.9u)
Record vs. Parlay:  1-2  (-1.9u)
====================================================================

Another tough day yesterday.  Back in the saddle tonight...although a little late!
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CMJohnson1
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#2
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:12:27 PM
Denver vs. Toronto -

Nuggets finally lost against the Celtics in 3OT on Sunday Night.  Raptors have won their last 2 games and covered in 6 of the last 10 games.  Spread set pretty low right now in favor of the Nuggets, and everyone is jumping aboard.  Line has been moving pretty much all day, but essentially it's been reverse line movement more in favor of the Nuggets.  First meeting of the year hit 223...and I would assume that this one would go down, but how much?  Total is tough to call right now, if anything I would lean UNDER
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CMJohnson1
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#3
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:15:22 PM
Portland vs. Miami -

If anything right now I would lean big time towards the OVER.  Heat offense has been rolling, and Portland's defense on this road trip has been flat out bad.  Spread is a little too close to call right now as the Heat are coming off two high profile games against the Clippers and Lakers, and they have the Thunder on the horizon.  Tough to tell if they will be as "up" for this game as they were the past couple.  First meeting hit 182...and this one should be able to get over 200 IMO
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CMJohnson1
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#4
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:19:51 PM
Sacramento vs. Memphis -

Line might be a point or two too high for my liking...Grizzlies bounced back nicely with two wins at home against the Wolves and Warriors...third meeting of the year between these two, first one hit 194, second one went way low with 154...split the difference and this one should be in the mid-170's or so...so why is the total so high?  I would have to take the last two offensive outbursts from the Kings at home with a huge grain of salt considering it was against the Jazz and Rockets...two non-defensive teams.  I think they will settle back into their road average of the mid-80's. 
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#5
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:22:12 PM

Thanks for posting CMM! i just saw the latest injuries for denver...


2013-02-12 G Andre Iguodala Neck is downgraded to expected to miss Tuesday vs. Toronto
2013-02-12 F Danilo Gallinari Sinus expected to miss Tuesday vs. Toronto


that's why the line is moving... 

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#6
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:26:17 PM
Den vs Tor is move from -2 to a PK. A reverse line movement like this tells me TOR is the winning pick. CMJ what's your take on this game?
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CMJohnson1
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#7
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:26:32 PM
Oklahoma City vs. Utah -

Spread is set low to attract the big time money on the Thunder, and it seems to be working.  Line has moved a little bit more in the favor of the Jazz.  My big time lean right now would be for the OVER.  First meeting hit 190...and based on the Kings putting up well over 100 points I would assume the Thunder should be able to as well?  Just too many people on the OVER and the THUNDER here...could be a trap game with the Jazz struggling and the Heat on the schedule before the break for the Thunder. 
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CMJohnson1
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#8
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:28:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigLick08:

Den vs Tor is move from -2 to a PK. A reverse line movement like this tells me TOR is the winning pick. CMJ what's your take on this game?


Seems like the Raptors are the play, but Nuggets might step up with the big names out as well.
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#9
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:30:14 PM
Phoenix vs. LA Lakers -

Really?  Lakers almost double digit favorites?  After getting smoked by the Celtics and the Heat?  Struggling for a majority of the game against the Bobcats?  Returning home after a two week road trip?  They are playing the Suns however who have been on the road for a long time themselves.  And they are pretty damn terrible...might have to lean towards the UNDER in this one as the Suns struggle on offense. 
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#10
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:32:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BigLick08:

Den vs Tor is move from -2 to a PK. A reverse line movement like this tells me TOR is the winning pick. CMJ what's your take on this game?


it's not a reverse line movement. it's just because of the injuries updates... 

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CMJohnson1
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#11
Posted: 2/12/2013 5:37:40 PM
Houston vs. Golden State -

Rematch of the 3-point barrage from the Rockets of a couple weeks ago...media hyping the hell out of this one and saying that it's going to be physical.  I think the Warriors are going to come out with a strong defensive performance.  Total is set based on the last meeting...but I feel as though it's set about 3-5 points too high. 
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#12
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:19:24 PM
Like Tor to win
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#13
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:28:59 PM
Today was the first time I looked at your record to see if it was being tracked correctly..and you are missing 1 loss and didn't subtract enough units from yesterday 
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CMJohnson1
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#14
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:29:44 PM
Denver vs. Toronto UNDER 206  (1.1 to win 1)

Trust this play over the Raptors spread.  No Iguodala and Gallinari tonight for the Nuggets...really don't see how they will get points.  For this one to go over, you have to figure that the Nuggets will have to get to the 100 mark.  Last meeting those two only combined for 17 points...so that would bring it down to 96 by itself...but I look again and do I see the Nuggs getting 43 free throw attempts?  No.  Do I see Corey Brewer and JaVale McGee getting 36 points combined?  No.  Do I see the Nuggets getting 23 offensive rebounds?  No.  They could however win the game because with the missing parts, the Raptors might come out and play flat, which also helps the under.

Prediction:  Raptors 99  Nuggets 91
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#15
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:31:03 PM
Just out of curiosity I know you like to "split the difference" when it comes to totals and previous meetings.
But do you think Vegas sets the lines that way? It just seems a bit too convenient. 
For example, if 2 teams meet twice and they hit 230 in a record setting game in one meeting but have an average shooting night the next and hit 190, do you automatically assume the total should be 210 for the third game? Even if its 2 good defensive teams?

I'm not hating, just asking. Because there are so many variables that come into play like injuries in the previous games, back to backs, look aheads and so on.

I personally never looked at totals that way. I've always looked at pace, shooting percentages, offensive and defensive and so on.
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CMJohnson1
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#16
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:32:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WakeAndRake:

Today was the first time I looked at your record to see if it was being tracked correctly..and you are missing 1 loss and didn't subtract enough units from yesterday 




Thank you...forgot the Dallas 2nd half play. 

OVERALL RECORD:  160-147 (+13.05u)

Record vs. Spread/ML:  79-76  (+3.05u)
Record vs. O/U:  80-69  (+11.9u)
Record vs. Parlay:  1-2  (-1.9u)
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#17
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:36:48 PM
They have a section about how terrible you are on sbr. Thought I'd let you know
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#18
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:39:03 PM
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#19
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:41:48 PM
johnson you always lean under lol
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#20
Posted: 2/12/2013 6:46:48 PM
bol cmj  
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CMJohnson1
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#21
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:02:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFLJOE:

Just out of curiosity I know you like to "split the difference" when it comes to totals and previous meetings.
But do you think Vegas sets the lines that way? It just seems a bit too convenient. 
For example, if 2 teams meet twice and they hit 230 in a record setting game in one meeting but have an average shooting night the next and hit 190, do you automatically assume the total should be 210 for the third game? Even if its 2 good defensive teams?

I'm not hating, just asking. Because there are so many variables that come into play like injuries in the previous games, back to backs, look aheads and so on.

I personally never looked at totals that way. I've always looked at pace, shooting percentages, offensive and defensive and so on.


Great question...everything you mentioned there is pretty much what I look at. 

A few minutes looking at the box score will immediately point out the important points of the game.  Perfect example tonight would be the Kings/Grizzlies game.  Before even looking at the box scores, just take into consideration the teams involved.  Kings are young, inconsistent, more offensively geared, faster at home and slower on the road.  Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and just recently lost their premier scorer and heart guy with Rudy Ghay. 

I take a look at the first meeting...113-81 Grizzlies...OVER 188.  Grizzlies played a phenomenal offensive game getting 29 assists on 39 made shots.  Rudy Ghay struggled, but they also got 26 out of Wayne Ellington....so that evens out, it could have easily been 26 for Ghay and 8 for Ellington.  A lot of free throws, great 3 point shooting...overall the Kings were about where they should be expected...not abnormally terrible shooting....good amount of rebounds. 

Second meeting the Grizzlies didn't get the same number of free throws, or 3-pointers...despite having a similar assist ratio...21 assists on 34 made shots.  More turnovers, and less offensive rebounds...figure they won't be at the 85 point mark...but certainly not the 113 mark either...they should be in the mid to low 90's more often than not.  The Kings in this game were the story however.  Shot even worse in the second matchup...made nothing from beyond the arc...couldn't get to the free throw line...a bunch of turnovers...and only 9 assists on 29 made shots. 

Now I expect that the Kings won't be that bad, they should fall a lot closer to the first matchup where they were able to get 81 points against the tough Grizzlies defense.  After looking at the basics of the box score, I check the injuries and situations (3rd in 4, 4th in 5, after long home stand or road trip, etc.).  There are no injuries for these teams, and nothing really sticking out as far as the situations.  Finally, I take a look at the referees and see if they could seriously impact what happens....what we see with tonight's game is that Brent Barnaky is on the crew...and he is notorious for hating the home team and loving the OVER.  That definitely needs to be considered.

Final thing I do is analyze what it would take to get the OVER...it's predicted at 99-90 or so in favor of the Grizzlies.  Despite the Kings defensive limitations, getting the Grizz to 100 points seems a bit too much to ask.  What would be the maximum from the Grizzlies?  I'd say 106. 

So that's basically my methodology that I follow with just about every game that I look at.  It takes time, but it gives me a good feel on the total...so to answer your question, does Vegas know this?  Yes they do...of course they do.  But if you pay attention to abnormalities, and do this for a while, you get a good feeling for predicting this game.


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#22
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:04:11 PM
man, hope you rebound from last night....
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CMJohnson1
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#23
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:04:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BeatTheBookie4:

They have a section about how terrible you are on sbr. Thought I'd let you know




Copy the link, I'd LOVE to read it.
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CMJohnson1
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#24
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:09:02 PM
Kings vs. Grizzlies UNDER 189.5  (1.1 to win 1)

After the analysis that I gave there...you pretty could have guessed that this play was coming.  I know the Kings are pretty terrible on defense, but the Grizzlies exploding on offense tonight just doesn't seem likely.  Memphis has proven that they can shut down the Kings offense.  I can't see the Kings getting over 90 points tonight.

Prediction:  Grizzlies 97  Kings 89
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#25
Posted: 2/12/2013 7:25:26 PM
Portland +11  (1.1 to win 1)

Going with the look ahead factor and letdown game for the Heat.  I don't think they will let the Blazers win the game...but I can't see them blowing them out either.  Other than a weak effort against the Rockets the Blazers haven't been blown out too often.  Hoping they get up for this one.

Prediction:  Heat 103  Blazers 96

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