Posted:
#1
146-104-6 (58%) (+119.7 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 39-25-1
4 unit: 57-37-3
5 unit: 47-35-2
>5 units: 1-1
First post in just over 3 weeks. Saturday the 19th represented a real shit storm for me. Got my ass handed to me, lost some $ and then late that night ended up getting t-boned by a drunk driver late that night. Fucked myself up pretty good. Spent just over 2 weeks in the hospital. Back home rehabbing now and back to covers and capping. Hope to get back into a routine. Hopefully my head wasn't rung too bad and I can get on track with some winners.
5 units: Miami @ Toronto +5.5
Mia are 8-18 ATS last 26 Meetings
Tor are 16-6 ATS last 22 Sunday Games
Tor are 13-6 ATS last 19 home games
I wasn't a huge fan of the Raptors trade for Gay initially, but you never know. They looked great against a sleep walking LAC team, but the one thing with Gay is that he potentially could make Toronto a much better defensive team. Gay is one of the few players in the NBA that can give Lebron some problems defensively due to his length. I think Ross and Derozan can cause problems for Dwade. Ultimately I see this game coming down to rebounding. Adding Gay and getting Val back from injury makes Toronto an even better rebounding team. Miami really struggles vs. good rebounding squads. I see them struggling in this one. Toronto and their crowd should really be up for this one. I can't see Miami outside of Chris Bosh really caring too much about this one. Toronto is the play for me.
BOL to everyone. Good to be back.
BONUS SUPERBOWL PLAY:
MAX UNITS: Baltimore +4
SF has struggled against physical teams this year. Baltimores D is really good vs teams that play underneath. SF really has nobody to stretch the Baltimore D. SF's D is weakest deep. Baltimore has the guys to take the top off. I like them to get a couple big pickups and for Jacoby Jones to make 1 or 2 big special teams plays. If this game is a close one (which many are predicting), I'd be worried about having David Akers kicking fgs, and with Baltimores #2 ranked redzone D, SF will have to kick a few.
Key stats:
SF is 1-4 ATS when they give up 4.0+ ypc and 1-4SU. That's all their losses
SF redzone D - 28th
BAL redzone D - 2nd
If Baltimore can score TDs while holding SF to FGs they win.
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