Pete NBA thread #2

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Pete NBA thread #2
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#126
Posted: 1/18/2013 7:35:20 AM
great boss looking foward to it and just to let you know FRIDAYS for me are taboo. I don't know what it is but for some reason I cannot come out on top after a friday night. We are going to change that tonight and don't want to deplete my bankroll this week. there will be no reverse, or parlays looking to jump on your big play and will only risk half of my winnings this week tonight. my complete bankroll for gambling is 96,400 and re-started it back in october with 10,000
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#127
Posted: 1/18/2013 8:49:37 AM
holydiver  Sounds good man - How old are you?

I remember my poker days when my BR was between 50k - 75k..  Now I'm married, w/ a kid, another one on the way, and I am building a house lol (and my wife stays at home).. so BR management is key.. also I do this just for fun and because I am competitive and love to beat the odds.  So my gambling BR is around 11k and building though

holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#128
Posted: 1/18/2013 9:55:12 AM
I am 46 married with 2 kids. I am very fortunate to work in a family sanitatation business for 28 years now and make a very very good salary. At the same time I do not want to throw it away which is completely possible with gambling. It is just a hobby of mine and I actually spoil my kids with a portion of my winnings. I feel that way it is a good thing what I am doing. What I mean is not big things but the little things that count like I always get them playstation , and xbox games and after this week my one son wants an ipad and may surprise him. On the other hand do not get me wrong they have responsibilitiesand chores and they do earn there things also. So that is how I reward them
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#129
Posted: 1/18/2013 10:06:03 AM
Early plays that are locked in

Mavericks +5 (-120), 2 units - I saw this jump to 4.5..  figured i'd buy the half point up to 5..  EVERYONE is on OKC.. Who knows.. maybe before game time the line will be 5.5..  I will post a write up for this game before 1pm eastern

Raptors/Philly Under 190, 1 unit 

AP
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#130
Posted: 1/18/2013 10:21:12 AM
holydiver  I am in finance.. Actually a money manager (ha ha).. I have a client (a business) that is in sanitation.. they do very well.  

What sports do you typically bet?  I do CFB, NFL, NBA, and MLB...  To be 100% honest, I haven't had a profitable CFB season in three years.  NFL I absolutely dominated this year (my own capping + a few others on Covers like Jfoxx)..  I hit something crazy like 66%..  NBA (my entire season) I am right at 56% which is what I want.. my 2-3u plays are 60%+.. 1u plays are right around 50%.. I decided I am going to do an MLB entire season thread this year..  I love MLB totals.. I am a big stats dork.. I have a spread sheet that builds tons and tons of data..  examples are where the game is being played at (certain stadiums tend to go over.. and certain ones go under).. I look at the ump strike / ball ratio.. ump over under stats..  weather (do this manually day to day).. pitching.. hitting.. trends.. Definitely excited for mlb season..  
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#131
Posted: 1/18/2013 10:32:09 AM
omg mlb was my cup of tea last year and hammered it I actually profitted 150,000 on the year and was capping in the bahama's last year at the tiki bar like crazy with a bartender named jose. I was actually up at almost 500,000 at one point. We are actually going back there for easter week when the kids are off of school
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#132
Posted: 1/18/2013 10:34:01 AM

I only bet mlb,nba, cbb occasionally and of course cfb and the nfl

holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#133
Posted: 1/18/2013 10:35:12 AM
those frozen rum runners get me wagering out of my mind
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#134
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:00:00 AM
1/18/2013 - Final Card

Rockets +5 (-120), 5 units 

Mavericks +5 (-120), 2 units 

Raptors / 76ers Under 190, 1 unit 

Wizards team total Under 97.5, 1 unit 


4 plays tonight but I like them all.  Rockets & Mav's write up should be posted shortly

AP
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#135
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:25:31 AM
1/18

Houston Rockets +5 (-120), 5 UNITS

The Rockets travel to Indianapolis to play the Pacers who will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  This will be Houston's 4th game in 7 days but they have lost 5 in a row.  

These teams are polar opposites; Pacers are a defensive minded team that focus's on applying constant pressure.  They are very good at this as they rank first in Points allowed per game, FG% allowed, and 2nd in 3point % allowed.  They rank close to last in every offensive category besides rebounds.  The Rockets are a high tempo team that ranks 2nd in points scored, 7th in FG%, and 16th in 3point%.

Houston's problem, that they will correct tonight, are turn overs (harden) and shooting percentage (harden).  James Harden, in my opinion, has struggled in Houston's stretch of 5 losses.  Chandler Parsons has actually played above average and the others have done their part.  Let me bash Harden some more; In his last 4 games he has attempted 34 3pter's and has made 7 (20%), he has attempted 81 FG's and has made 32 (39.5%).  

So why am I max betting Houston?  Well, Harden is an all star, and star players tend to shine when they stare adversity in the face.  Harden has been terrible in his last four starts and now faces the best defense in the year.  So, he should suck even worse right?  Wrong, I believe he and Lin light it up tonight.  Prediction..  Harden puts up 38 tonight ( 4/7 3's , 9/17 fgs , 8/10 ft's ) ..  and Lin back's him up w/ 19

Prediction; 107 - 94 Rockets 

A
thomaschau PM thomaschau
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quote#136
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:13:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by apeterson8809:

holydiver  I am in finance.. Actually a money manager (ha ha).. I have a client (a business) that is in sanitation.. they do very well.  

What sports do you typically bet?  I do CFB, NFL, NBA, and MLB...  To be 100% honest, I haven't had a profitable CFB season in three years.  NFL I absolutely dominated this year (my own capping + a few others on Covers like Jfoxx)..  I hit something crazy like 66%..  NBA (my entire season) I am right at 56% which is what I want.. my 2-3u plays are 60%+.. 1u plays are right around 50%.. I decided I am going to do an MLB entire season thread this year..  I love MLB totals.. I am a big stats dork.. I have a spread sheet that builds tons and tons of data..  examples are where the game is being played at (certain stadiums tend to go over.. and certain ones go under).. I look at the ump strike / ball ratio.. ump over under stats..  weather (do this manually day to day).. pitching.. hitting.. trends.. Definitely excited for mlb season..  
That is incredible work of you. 
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#137
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:25:38 PM
Well I know one thing I will be on Houston for sure:-X:-)
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keithprochaska PM keithprochaska
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quote#138
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:29:38 PM
Not so fast my friend. I have a feeling that Indiana will win the game and Houston will cover. I'm thinking more around 98-96 Indiana. They are monsters are home going 15-3 SU and Houston is so so on the road going 7-12. I think this game goes under. Defense wins consistently, offense is subject to how the players shoot on that given night. Thoughts?
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#139
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:51:52 PM
keithprochaska - I agree with you in that Indiana is great at home and are monsters on the defensive side of the ball.  5 games in 7 nights and are coming off a loss @ Orlando.  IMO, when you are tired, the first thing that goes is defense.  I can't see them applying constant pressure the entire game.. especially w/ how Houston plays

I lived in Indianapolis for 7 months last year and was present when the Knicks & Lin-sanity came to town.  The place was packed with Asians and Lin lit it up. 

Again, this could be considered a contrarian play as a lot of people seem to be backing the Pacers..  but I think it is the right play in this situation.  I just don't see this talented Houston team losing 6 straight.  

Just my opinion - Feel free to bash me if I am way off 
keithprochaska PM keithprochaska
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quote#140
Posted: 1/18/2013 1:54:34 PM
Indiana is quietly one of the best teams in the league. I think they will be in the top 3/4 in the east (Miami, New York, Indiana/Chicago - waiting for D Rose to come back and see how they play) and probably make the eastern finals. Houston is a talented team but they struggle away winning only 36% of their road games. I see Indiana controlling this game and winning, Houston might cover and for your sake I hope they do.
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#141
Posted: 1/18/2013 2:45:50 PM
I will be the judge of this and my verdict goes to the boss man APETERSON in his analysis, but I would also like to say bol to you keith
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#142
Posted: 1/18/2013 3:13:38 PM
keithprochaska - Anything can happen...  The Pacers are good but they don't have a player that can take over a game..  he is still recovering (Danny Granger)..  They have relied heavily on their defense..  My bet is that their defense breaks tonight due to playing 5 games in 7 days.    But, I have been wrong before, and will be wrong again, just hopefully not tonight. 
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#143
Posted: 1/18/2013 3:23:53 PM
1/18

Mavericks +5 (-120), 2 units 

Well, the consensus is that Dallas doesn't stand a chance against OKC.  I strongly disagree with the consensus and believe the Mav's match up quite well against the Thunder.  Don't get me wrong, OKC is the better team, I just love the momentum Dallas has coming into this game.  

OKC is beatable..  look back to the 7th of this month.. a loss @ Washington..  

Prediction:  107 - 104 Mav's upset OKC 
ricro PM ricro
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quote#144
Posted: 1/18/2013 3:24:55 PM
Good assessments.  I may stay away from the spread on HOU/IND.  Agree that defense can break down when you're tired, but HOU has significant turnover problems against mediocre defenses.  If IND plays even above-average defense (which is an off night for them), it may cause problems for HOU.  If HOU is successful pushing the tempo and not letting IND get setup in their half court D, then your outcome is probably right.  Just too hard to call for me.
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#145
Posted: 1/18/2013 3:55:16 PM

ok boss I am locked and loaded. LET HIT EM HARD TONIGHT

ROCKETS +5 -120 (BUYING THE HALF) (3000*)

MAVERICKS +6 -120 (BUYING THE HALF) (2000*)

 

thomaschau PM thomaschau
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quote#146
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:45:55 PM
BOL 
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#147
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:52:10 PM
ricro 

holydiver 

thomaschau 
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#148
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:58:07 PM
1/18/2013 - Final Card - Add

Rockets +5 (-120), 5 units 

James Harden Over 25.5 (-125), 2 units 

Mavericks +5 (-120), 2 units 

Raptors / 76ers Under 190, 1 unit 

Wizards team total Under 97.5, 1 unit 


Maybe I'm good or maybe I am just flat out crazy, but to show my confidence in this play I added the Harden prop play for 2 units.  As stated in my write up, I see him putting up a crazy number like 38 tonight.  

AP  
holydiver PM holydiver
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quote#149
Posted: 1/18/2013 6:55:46 PM
hey boss don't you think the pacer total seems high? It is either to easy or what I am thinking the public is going to get hammered on that one and both teams may shoot lights out especially the rockets
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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quote#150
Posted: 1/18/2013 6:57:12 PM
It's a no play 4 me
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