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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Pete NBA thread #2
apeterson8809 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:50:39 AM
Posted; 18-14, +5.1 units 

1u = $100
Typical plays; 1u - 3u
Max bet; 5u

1u; 11-11, -$120
2u; 5-2, +$530
3u; 2-0, +$600
5u; 0-1, -$500

Houston and Harden fell way short yesterday and the price I paid wasn't cheap...  Overall my "worst" day since posting..  but it was set up to either win big or lose big.. and that's what happens with taking the occasional shot..  

Now since that is out of my system it's time to go on another 15-5 run 

Thoughts, opinions, and questions regarding any game are welcome.  

Plays and write ups will be posted before 1pm eastern 

AP
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#2
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:53:04 AM
Bro on the bkn @ atl and ind@Orl+1.5 i need leans whatchugot?
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#3
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:53:40 AM
and on the was@sac-4.5 i chose sac. any words of wisdom?
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#4
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:59:37 AM
iamtheboss  

ind @ orl - I'd hate to fade the Pacers right now even if this is their 4th game in 5 nights... Due to both of these reasons (not wanting to bet against a very hot team..  and not wanting to bet on them since this is their 4th game in 5 nights) .. I am probably going to pass on this side..  I do have a strong lean for UNDER 186.5.  Pacers have been an under machine this year.. The only thing that scares me is the fact that Orlando doesn't play defense.

bkn @ atl - Another hot team that is playing B2B and is up against a Hawks team coming off a terrible offensive performance against the Bulls.. scoring only 58 points.  Atlanta is 12-6 at home, is rested, and has to be embarrassed by their last game.  The public should be backing Brooklyn as they have been on fire.  I'd watch this spread today..  if public wagers start coming in on the Nets and the line doesn't adjust.. i'd hammer Atlanta.  All teams cool off eventually & Atlanta owns their home court.  Current lean would be the Hawks -4.5..  but I think the line may come down a bit..  

was @ sac - Strong lean on Sac -4.5.  The Wizards are 1-15 on the road.. and the Kings have got 11 of their 14 wins at home.  Wizards are coming off a big win against Orlando..  and Okafor was an absolute BEAST in that game.. 19pts on 62% shooting and 11 rebounds.  Also note Big baby Davis was out this game.. as was E'Twaun Moore.  

 
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#5
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:20:40 AM
1/16/2013

Cavaliers @ Trail Blazers Under 197, 2 units 

Last time these two met the final score was 117-118..  In double over time.  If the game doesn't go to OT the total lands at 182.  

Portland has been tough at home this season.. I'd give the credit to their defense for their 13-5 home court record.  Portland (recently) held OKC to 87, Miami to 92, and philly to 85.  The T Blazers are also coming off an over time loss @ Denver last night.  I see this total landing around 189 .. and probably lower.. giving us lost of value in the under.  

Prediction;  96-88 Blazers 

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#6
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:27:11 AM
1/16/2013

Celtics -7.5, 1 unit 

The Hornets are coming off a big win last night against the 76ers (111-99).. while Boston had the night off.  

How can anyone fade this Celtics team right now?  Boston is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  During this run they have beat the Pacers, Hawks, Knicks, and Houston.  

Also, Doc Rivers will be facing his sons (Austin Rivers) team..  Do you really think Doc wants to lose to his son?  Or even keep the game close?  

Prediction:  104 - 89 Celtics 

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#7
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:31:45 AM
That's it for now.

I will be watching line movements and I am waiting for the rest of the lines to be posted.  I will have a few more plays and will post them before 6pm eastern.

AP
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#8
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:51:46 AM
So you watch the line from your book? Or you watch the line percentage bets vs the line movement? 
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#9
Posted: 1/16/2013 12:10:44 PM
Watch line movements / bet percentages from various sites that post them..   
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#10
Posted: 1/16/2013 12:26:01 PM
1/16/2013

Rockets @ Mav's Over 214, 2 units  

*Both teams like to push the pace; Houston averages 99.6 possessions per game while Dallas averages 96.5, both well above the league average of 94

*Dallas is coming off a game where everyone was lights out except for Dirk.  Dallas shot 60% from the field, 46% from 3pt, and 95% from the line against Memphis.  This is very impressive as Dirk only had 10 points and was 0-3 for 3's.

*Last night, the clippers hit 11 of 19 from 3pt land (57%) and were 53% from the field.  Basically Houston really didn't care about playing defense.  

*Lin and Harden got a few mins of extra rest as they both played about 35 mins..  Typically they play about 38mins per game.  

Prediction:  Both teams are very capable of scoring 110+  I think we will see points tonight.. and a lot of them.  
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#11
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:27:21 PM
I used sportsoptions on free trial and it worthless. It is probably I don't know how to use it. 
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#12
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:35:00 PM
1/16/2013

Heat / Warriors Over 202.5, 1 unit 

All around all stars (James, Wade, Bosh, Allen.. etc) against an up tempo team w/ lights out shooters (Curry, Lee, and Thompson).  

Miami, especially D Wade, should be well rested, and ready for an up tempo type of game.  I think we see high percentage shots taken and points will be scored.  

Prediction:  Both teams land in the 100's...  108 - 104 type of game.  


Final Card
Cavs / TBlazers Under 197, 2 units 
Rockets / Mav's Over 214, 2 units 
Celtics -7.5, 1 unit 
Heat / Warriors Over 202.5, 1 unit 


AP


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#13
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:35:59 PM
Best of Luck   
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#14
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:12:33 PM
Hey Pete no sweat last night lost 3100 again what play would be your strogest for me straight thanks Pete
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#15
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:46:35 PM
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holydiver  Has to be Cav's / T Blazers under 197.. or just parlay all 4 for 1k =) ha ha, kidding!  And yeah, I was getting worried as I saw a ton of people on Covers were also on Houston.. that usually isn't the best sign..    
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#16
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:58:19 PM
1/16/2013 ADD

Orlando Magic +1.5, 2 units 

Yup, decided to fade this hot Pacers team tonight.  Pacer's are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and are coming off a dominating performance.  Orlando has really been the exact opposite..  injury issues.. and they hold a 13-24 record.  The public has absolutely hammered Indiana.. on various sites I see public bets from 70% to 90% on the Pacers and the line has sat at +1.5 all day (for me at least).  The other thing that really sticks out is Orlando's win at LAC.. 104 - 101 on the 12th...  This team is capable, rested, and face a team that should be tired.  IMO, I can't see the Pacers playing solid defense the entire game, they will get tired, and Orlando should capitalize.  

Final Card
Cavs / TBlazers Under 197, 2 units 
Rockets / Mav's Over 214, 2 units 
Celtics -7.5, 1 unit 
Heat / Warriors Over 202.5, 1 unit 
Magic +1.5, 2 units 
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#17
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:02:51 PM
I would fade those magic apete
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#18
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:15:24 PM
pete what about the magic? I have a hard time taking them but will do what you suggest? would you think that is a stronger play than the cavs/blazers under? Like always just looking to unload on one play only because I like to get up and than fu*k around with 2 or three teams
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#19
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:19:00 PM
joshua1014

holydiver  the unders..  the magic play is definitely speculative, but I really like it.  Guess we will see! 
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#20
Posted: 1/16/2013 6:24:41 PM

thanks alot boss and bol to you I really hope you sweep the board! With that said

PORTLAND UNDER 197.5 (3000*)

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#21
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:27:45 PM
holydiver  That's the plan 
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#22
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:32:38 PM
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#23
Posted: 1/16/2013 8:54:34 PM
Orlando :)
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#24
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:10:08 PM
apete u like Miami -4 currys out for gsw
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#25
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:31:43 PM
I just fking saw that - Early reports said he was a go..  darn that

If Miami brings there B game or better they cover that spread 
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