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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Bookies crunch numbers, I crunch team trends
midnightprowl
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midnightprowl
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#26
Posted: 1/10/2013 3:42:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by zimpy:

I play the line (which I thought was called spread in the US?)

Boston -7.5 @ $1.85
I am from au..... But where did u get -7.5???? 
Even at tab was -8.5?????
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#27
Posted: 1/10/2013 6:01:53 AM
post your plays again for thursday bcoz i want to fade your picks. the way you cap games is very funny to me.
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#28
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:17:42 PM
So record is 4-2 for me..

Weirdly you have different odds in the states?

What's a good site to find your odds?
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#29
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:19:16 PM
I bet betfair
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#30
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:20:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 7RINGS:

post your plays again for thursday bcoz i want to fade your picks. the way you cap games is very funny to me.


I didn't bet today. Nothing looked good. Will put down tomorrows and i'll tell you what the point spread is.
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#31
Posted: 1/12/2013 7:18:55 PM
Record: 4-2

Today

Bobcats at +11.5 - Paul George out and Indiana offence is too inconsistent as it is.

Philly at -1 - Philly are trying to stop their biggest losing streak. At home against a tiring Rockets. 

Chicago at -8.5 - Phoenix are appalling on offence at the moment. Chicago's offence is purring.

Memphis at -1.5 - Stringent D will take O.J. out of the game. Without that weapon the Mavericks should just fall short.


BOL 
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#32
Posted: 1/13/2013 3:41:26 AM
took a hit tonight, huh. I was all over the Bulls until the line moved to 8.5, so i faded them and got lucky.

no one could have seen the memphis nightmare coming, your phily pick was awesome.

Can you please share with me how you cap Defensive match ups and how you cap in general.

Thanks.
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#33
Posted: 1/13/2013 4:15:10 AM
Yeah I always bet evenly. So it wasn't too bad. 2-2 today.

So the record is 6-4 now.


I cap based on key player match ups. I like to identify a key to a winnings team success and how the opposing team mitigates it.

A team like Dallas often wins games by offensive efficiency and I thought if Tony Allen could shut down Mayo and Carter then they would win. I bet on that but it doesn't stop other players stepping up like today happened. I just hope in the long run that this thought process wins 60% of the time.

The best example was when Dwight Howard was playing with Orlando a couple years ago. He was so important and it was obvious that if a team didn't have a centre to stop him then they would lose. It was money every time. 

Phoenix over Chicago I couldn't explain other than things just went wrong for Chicago. I figured their offense was so efficient compared to Phoenix's at the moment. But there are always blips and you can learn something from it. Perhaps they are a defensive team that works well against obvious offensive weapons which they can design their defense around (I know Thibidou is very game plan heavy).

My approach is more about watching the players. It's less about stats and more about how players play against each other.
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#34
Posted: 1/13/2013 4:28:20 AM
your basing your picks off of perception. nba is the wrong league to be betting like that.
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#35
Posted: 1/13/2013 4:46:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 7RINGS:

your basing your picks off of perception. nba is the wrong league to be betting like that.


Why is NBA wrong for that?
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#36
Posted: 1/13/2013 6:37:57 AM
So tomorrow's tips:

Brooklyn at -1 (spread not out yet) - Brooklyn playing consistent offense and should execute better than Indiana at home.

Minnesota +12 - The height of minnesota will keep them in this game. Teams with height give SA trouble (Clippers, Hornets, Memphis).

Cleveland +8 - Lakers have no defense. I can't see them beating any team by more than 8 at the moment. Kyrie will have a big game.
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#37
Posted: 1/13/2013 7:08:16 AM
because youre basing your picks off of observation of their past few games. lines-makers werent born yesterday, they know everything u and i and everyone on here know put together. cleve beat the lakers already with pau and dwight in the line-up and now theyre getting 8 points without them? that has TRAP written all over it. this is the nba bro, even a lowly wizards team without john wall, nene and jordan crawford can beat the almighty thunder.
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#38
Posted: 1/13/2013 3:56:01 PM
ZIMPY, keep posting your plays. you will find there are allot of behind holes on here, don't let them discourage you.


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#39
Posted: 1/13/2013 7:15:02 PM
That's alright, I'm not discouraged. It's good to track the games in this way. So i'm happy to put up what I am betting on. It's worked for me in the past. Though every now and then I have to stop gambling because I lose my ability to pick. It's like poker in that regard. The way you play can go undone if you lose perspective.

I like to stay above 55% for my picks. I'm currently at 60%. Hopefully I keep above that. If I go below then I will reassess.

I don't believe in traps and rigging. All those that play NBA have great ability and anyone can beat another player 1 on 1 on their best day. Some times players/teams turn it on and make shots. At the end of the day that's what wins games. You can only play the averages. 
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#40
Posted: 1/13/2013 7:21:03 PM
zimpy if you want to bet based on perception / eye, consider live betting.
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#41
Posted: 1/13/2013 7:25:05 PM
Yeah Cheers! I do that myself, along with second half bets. Just don't have time to post it up on here at work. It's easier just to put the before tips up.
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#42
Posted: 1/13/2013 11:40:09 PM
1-2 today.

Annoying but I'm ok with both losses though. Just a question of making baskets. Both Minnesota and Cleveland took more shots, had more offensive rebounds and less turnovers. They lost by not making shots. Which is always something you can't predict.
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#43
Posted: 1/14/2013 5:46:00 PM
aye zimpy where r your plays for nba today
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#44
Posted: 1/14/2013 6:54:18 PM
Record 5-4

Charlotte +11 - Boston struggle against height and youth so Bobcats should stay close.

Chicago -4.5 - Chicago will be able to stop Atlanta inside and they rarely perform badly two games in a row.

Utah +2.5 - Miami on a road trip playing a team with size. Too many tall offensive weapons for Miami to handle. I expect Joel Anthony to foul out.
 
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#45
Posted: 1/14/2013 7:11:15 PM
idk zimp, i'm from Utah and follow the Jazz religiously, they are a bunch of overpaid, untalented scrubs this yr. they look 4 any little injury as an excuse not to play, Gone are the Stocton and Malone day/s where players played through the pain.

we dam near blew a 9 pt lead with 1;26 to play in the 4th against the Pistons. I think the Heat crush us tonight.
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#46
Posted: 1/14/2013 7:41:42 PM
Last time they played in miami and the only difference was the shooting %. 52% miami and 41% Utah. Millsap and Jefferson combined for 5-17. Considering their points in the paint they should bring it closer to evens this time.
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#47
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:44:55 PM
1 draw and 1 win today with utah looking good as well.
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#48
Posted: 1/14/2013 11:43:47 PM
Utah up! 


Record: 7-4-1
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#49
Posted: 1/14/2013 11:53:55 PM
glad i was wrong about my Jazz. i don't bet against them because i never wan't them to loose. But we have 15 out of 20 home games coming up. Should be able to get some good home dog wins.

Also, i am going to watch them play live against okc in Febuary, but if its a good value line, i'll probably take okc, will see.
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#50
Posted: 1/15/2013 7:06:35 PM
New Orleans +3 - New Orleans consistent defense should cause Holiday problems.

Clippers +3.5 - Houston on a slide at the moment. Clippers should keep it close enough to win.

Bucks +6 - Lakers winning with huge percentage. They are still a bad team and not worthy of being up +6 against the consistency of the bucks.
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