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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Thoughts on so called "value plays"
kir send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#276
Posted: 2/13/2013 7:53:21 AM
Viper, do you think this is a strong play? I want to recover from a bad 3 day losing streak hehe..
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#277
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:01:41 AM
@tsikenbreast: taga davao pud diay ka!hahaha been following you man!haha cheers!taga maa ko :)
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#278
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:02:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kir:

Tsiken, ive been reading your thread. ngayon ko lang natyempuhan yung pick mo. 9pm kasi ang betting samin. and we were given 30 mins to choose. down ako as of today. are you sure of that magic+3?
thanks pre!


just like what boss tsik said nba is really UNCERTAIN! and money management is still the key to success..NBA is one of the hardest sport to gamble, that's why many fallen gamblers including myself called it rigged or fixed over and over again..so the best strategy here would be, bet with a consistent amount, no matter what the play is..tsik's YTD is 28-8, a very impressive 78% winning percentage, lets do the math here if i tailed all tsik's play with the same amount of 3k per game, 28 wins would be 84k minus 10% is +75.6k, while the 8 loss is -24k, 75.6k minus 24k = 51.6k..this is an impressive win in 5 weeks time and in just 3k bet per game..imagine if your betting 5k or more per game

Always remember this, tsik is just sharing his thoughts regarding this so called "value plays" and so far its very impressive..so lets not question his plays and put a burden on him just because were down big and planning to go all in with his single play..remember, the key word here is money management..BOL
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#279
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:21:17 AM
Tsikenbreast (sharp)
Wow 28-8 omg fabulous!!! Outstanding my man!! Your insight & knowledge is top shelf but as you say the most important point to it all is money management and discipline to your goals and factor in a loss probability in to the equation play only premium picks with odds in your favor don't ever bet in bad state!!! EVER!!! PLAY ONLY WITH YOUR MIND....there are only so many gems value plays each week be patient and stick to goals and play as its a full-time job be accountable.
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#280
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:23:42 AM
boss tsik your YTD is very impressive 28-8 i've been reading your thread and following your plays for quite some time but i must admit were not always on the same side, but in the end i always had regrets..

but now i'm committed to follow your plays and win more cash together..i'm just hopeful that you'll be able to post your plays before 10pm for my local bookies..

anyway, keep up the good work and "BAI UNTA DILI KA NILA I-BAN DRI SA FORUM" hehehe..

taga koronadal city diay ko bai..
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#281
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:26:24 AM
BatangTae said it so right MONEYMANGEMENT IS THE KEY.. I think all in is a very bad mood..play 5% of your bank...live to bet another day.
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#282
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:27:20 AM
YTD 0-0

Magic+3


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#283
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:29:05 AM
@kir
I like the play and think its good ..bol
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#284
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:40:02 AM
Magic +3 ?
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#285
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:41:00 AM
Ops no question mark....my bad
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#286
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:42:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VyperATS:

BatangTae said it so right MONEYMANGEMENT IS THE KEY.. I think all in is a very bad mood..play 5% of your bank...live to bet another day.


before i was so stubborn and reckless, i can say i learned my lessons the hard way "CAREER ENDING SITUATION"
i did stop gambling in many occasions already but funny thing is i keep coming back just to do the same mistake again and again, lol..hopefully this time i'll make it right.. with tsik on our side i'm very positive..

tsik
lets get some cash
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#287
Posted: 2/13/2013 10:14:16 AM
Bantang TAE
THAT IS HOW WE ALL LEARN BUDDY....STICK TO YOUR GOALS MY FRIEND...28-8 IS AWESOME , BUT HAD YOU GONE ALL IN OR 50% ON ANY 8 LOSSES YOU SCREWED YOUR BANK UP BAD....STICK TO SAME AMOUNT EACH GAME WITH IN YOUR MEANS AND WATCH YOUR BANK ROLL GROW LIKE CRAZY....TSIK IS AWESOME, BUT NOT PSYCHIC...HE WILL MAKE YOU CASH IF YOU USE MONEY MANAGEMENT GOALS...

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#288
Posted: 2/13/2013 10:17:10 AM
I think all you guy's are awesome people with open minds!!!!
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#289
Posted: 2/13/2013 11:31:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VyperATS:

Bantang TAE
THAT IS HOW WE ALL LEARN BUDDY....STICK TO YOUR GOALS MY FRIEND...28-8 IS AWESOME , BUT HAD YOU GONE ALL IN OR 50% ON ANY 8 LOSSES YOU SCREWED YOUR BANK UP BAD....STICK TO SAME AMOUNT EACH GAME WITH IN YOUR MEANS AND WATCH YOUR BANK ROLL GROW LIKE CRAZY....TSIK IS AWESOME, BUT NOT PSYCHIC...HE WILL MAKE YOU CASH IF YOU USE MONEY MANAGEMENT GOALS...


THANKS BRO..
VYPER
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#290
Posted: 2/13/2013 11:49:12 AM
Spoetsbookspy has public betting at 80% Atlanta onATS and ML is 97% Atlanta...this is a fade the public!!! Take MAGIC +3 you can see this one miles away.
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#291
Posted: 2/13/2013 11:50:22 AM
Ops sportsbookspy
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BatangTae send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#292
Posted: 2/13/2013 11:55:24 AM
@Vyper

how about bkn-2? whats do you see with this line???
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#293
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:05:33 PM
Great picks
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composite
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#294
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:07:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BatangTae:



just like what boss tsik said nba is really UNCERTAIN! and money management is still the key to success..NBA is one of the hardest sport to gamble, that's why many fallen gamblers including myself called it rigged or fixed over and over again..so the best strategy here would be, bet with a consistent amount, no matter what the play is..tsik's YTD is 28-8, a very impressive 78% winning percentage, lets do the math here if i tailed all tsik's play with the same amount of 3k per game, 28 wins would be 84k minus 10% is +75.6k, while the 8 loss is -24k, 75.6k minus 24k = 51.6k..this is an impressive win in 5 weeks time and in just 3k bet per game..imagine if your betting 5k or more per game

Always remember this, tsik is just sharing his thoughts regarding this so called "value plays" and so far its very impressive..so lets not question his plays and put a burden on him just because were down big and planning to go all in with his single play..remember, the key word here is money management..BOL

With all due respect, you shouldn't look at past results when determining the right size for betting increment.  Yes, if I had bet $3,000 on each of the past plays, I'd have $51k right now.

But those were PAST plays.  If his next 36 plays go 8-28 I'd LOSE $51k, If you can handle that, then $3k is fine. If that would cause you break out in a cold sweat, then $3k per game is too much to bet.

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#295
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:16:42 PM
@batang Tae
Its to hard for me to make pick here....vs denver public favors denver by little here I'm not seeing value in this game
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#296
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:19:35 PM
Composite is dead on!!!
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#297
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:25:35 PM
Ya, its great to bet games and not sweat it out. If you play the% plays is works out and bankroll grows its like TEXAS HOLDEM YOU BE PATIENT only play hands with high % to win....bol
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#298
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:27:18 PM
Ops it works out
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Yungstar
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#299
Posted: 2/13/2013 12:36:22 PM
Only visiting this thread now. Great work!

On Magic +3 tonight. Let's get it.
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#300
Posted: 2/13/2013 1:04:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

With all due respect, you shouldn't look at past results when determining the right size for betting increment.  Yes, if I had bet $3,000 on each of the past plays, I'd have $51k right now.

But those were PAST plays.  If his next 36 plays go 8-28 I'd LOSE $51k, If you can handle that, then $3k is fine. If that would cause you break out in a cold sweat, then $3k per game is too much to bet.



composite

thanks for pointing that out..
but i've been there before and i didn't succeed. i lost again and again because i lack self discipline and poor money management, i'm not good at it, i'm the type of person who wants to win it all over night..that's why i changed and try this new approach..before when i bet, i want to win it all and WIN BIG overnight, as a result i lost it all time and time again..i learned my lesson and will never do the same mistake again..tsik is smoking hot right now that's why i'm going to tail him, i'm aware that he might get in a cold streak at some point, but right now he has 78% winning pct and its very impressive..i'll take my chance with that..besides this is not the first that i'm going to tail him, this is just the first time that i joined this forum..lets say i tailed him from the start so i have 28-8 ytd +51.6k, then suddenly he went 20-30 in the next 60 days, meaning i'll +54k for 20w and -90k for 30l, all in all, it will be 48-38 still with 15.6k, but 20-30 is far from happening, besides if this will truly be the case i'll stick with it winning 15.6k in 3 mos. compared to losing everything in days based on my previous experiences..i think approach will suit me, with this set up i can win cash and enjoy betting at the same time, unlike before i was always stressed out when losing in big games..

cheers
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