Thoughts on so called "value plays"

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Thoughts on so called "value plays"
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/5/2013 5:29:29 AM
So first off let us define what are value plays. These are plays that we think are off from the actual and have value in them. Let us take the games last night as examples. Atlanta opened as one point favorites against the lowly detroit pistons. Of course on paper it is just logical to pick the better team in atlanta and what better situation than to lay just a point to a less superior team in detroit. Another value play was the lakers getting four points against the clips. On paper, the lakers might be the best team in the nba, an allstar lineup, so the public jumps on them quickly.

What im trying to get to here is that vegas must know something about the games beforehand thus the release of the somewhat off lines which will make the average bettor want to bet on the team that eventually loses.

Let us try this out for tonights games. The spurs opened as -13 favorites against philly. Yet philly were just 10 point dogs against oklahoma yesterday. We all know that spurs are underdogs against okc. So why on earth would vegas give the spurs a higher line to cover. Just doesnt make sense. Vegas might just know something about the games beforehand.

Just my two cents. BOL!
emir2012 PM emir2012
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Posted: 1/5/2013 6:13:12 AM
so what are your leans then?
jambo12 PM jambo12
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Posted: 1/5/2013 6:40:38 AM
Are you saying that 'Vegas' has an input on results?
russelgee PM russelgee
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Posted: 1/5/2013 8:05:46 AM
At first, I agreed with you regarding the SAS-13 compared to OKC-10 against the same team. But as I was typing, a thought came into mind. SAS is -13 simply because PHI just came off a road game, no rest, thus the additional +3 on PHI against SAS.

Just my two cents. 
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/5/2013 8:07:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by emir2012:

so what are your leans then?


at a quick glance, im liking the spurs and nuggets to cover the large spread. the line that makes sense for me are spurs-10 and nuggets-7

[Quote: Originally Posted by jambo12] Are you saying that 'Vegas' has an input on results?

im not saying that "vegas" controls/fixes games, but the way i see it, they must know some kind of inside information that they know which side wins. and the way i see it, they give out softer lines on certain games which an average bettor would see as a "value play" and is synonymous to sucker bets.

you know what happens when a team the public loves(like the lakers or heat) are dogs by 3+pts. and such games would make you think that the nba is fixed. 
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/5/2013 11:27:47 PM
apparently vegas did know something...spurs and nuggets covered. 
animals26 PM animals26
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Posted: 1/5/2013 11:45:24 PM
Amen brother! I love it!
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/7/2013 9:26:35 PM
Seems like we have a "value play" for tomorrow.

miami laying only 2.5 on the road. of course miami on paper is the better team, and why not take them on basically a pick em game(1 possesion although those 2.5 pts can get you a long way) of course we all know what happens next

teng teng teng teng! ill take indiana ats and su anytime of the year.

BOL 
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/8/2013 9:15:44 PM
Ofcourse indiana wins and covers.  

TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/8/2013 11:50:45 PM
Rockets have been on fire as of late...yet are only laying 3 points on the road against one of the worst home teams.

 Although the hornets are struggling at home, i just think they are a different team with a go to guy in the clutch in gordon. Both teams are coming off big wins, you just have to roll with the home team taking points.

Nola +3.5 
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/8/2013 11:53:05 PM
Rockets have been on fire as of late...yet are only laying 3 points on the road against one of the worst home teams.

 Although the hornets are struggling at home, i just think they are a different team with a go to guy in the clutch in gordon. Both teams are coming off big wins, you just have to roll with the home team taking points.

Nola +3.5 
manutdfctts9899 PM manutdfctts9899
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Posted: 1/8/2013 11:57:42 PM
Scorpio85 PM Scorpio85
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Posted: 1/9/2013 12:29:34 AM
so now you are 3-0 with your Value play stuff....
Your leaning Hornets huh...I like it actually and I see what you are saying..

Now check out the Jazz/Bobcats game....
Bobcats play pretty well vs any team as long as they get 3-4 days of rest..haha! but their conditioning level isn't too good...so after a game, they will usually bomb it if they have a road game after. very rarely will they win any road game...let alone cover.

Jazz...are not the same when they aren't at home...somewhat vulnerable...but with a day of rest in between...they aren't so bad..
I will take the young guns Jazz vs. the unconditioned Bobcats any day...what do you say..?
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/9/2013 5:29:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Scorpio85:

so now you are 3-0 with your Value play stuff....
Your leaning Hornets huh...I like it actually and I see what you are saying..

Now check out the Jazz/Bobcats game....
Bobcats play pretty well vs any team as long as they get 3-4 days of rest..haha! but their conditioning level isn't too good...so after a game, they will usually bomb it if they have a road game after. very rarely will they win any road game...let alone cover.

Jazz...are not the same when they aren't at home...somewhat vulnerable...but with a day of rest in between...they aren't so bad..
I will take the young guns Jazz vs. the unconditioned Bobcats any day...what do you say..?

Jazz is an overrated team on the road.i mean they are a completely different team at home with their home crowd backing them. With that said, theyre not that good on the road, but so is the bobcats at home. They still are a shitty team.

With both teams rested, im liking utah to cover this one. The line seems just about right. But im staying away from this game, there are better games on the board tomorrow. BOL.
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/9/2013 5:41:10 AM
Adding a play...

Just last week, philly was a 13pt underdog against the spurs. And then lakers are getting 13 too tomorrow. Even with the injuries the lakers have, lakers>sixers.

San antonio -13 
Arthras PM Arthras
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Posted: 1/9/2013 6:13:59 AM
BOL chicken! with you on SAS, on the other side with NOH. 
PlayaP PM PlayaP
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Posted: 1/9/2013 6:31:41 AM
Too much money flowing into spurs. I'm fading taking lakers plus 13.5
BigUnit PM BigUnit
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Posted: 1/9/2013 6:37:22 AM
Vegas linemakers manipulate the line to try and get as close to even action on both sides as they can, not because they know something.
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/10/2013 5:21:20 AM
Behind a 29-10 4th quarter. NOLA does it of course. 

Unfortunately, stephen jackson had it covering for us until his ejection and it went all downhill from there. 


Arthras PM Arthras
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Posted: 1/10/2013 5:43:47 AM
Any value plays tomorrow? 
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/10/2013 7:05:25 AM
I dont wanna touch the primetime games tomorrow coz it is where garbage happens. However, i just dont get it why dallas are dogs for tomorrow. Coming from a game where they played decently against the clips, and sacramento off a big loss against sac, i just dont think they should be favorites for this game. 

Sacramento -2 


Smushmachine PM Smushmachine
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Posted: 1/10/2013 7:44:56 AM
Why should a 13-23 (5-16 on the road) Dallas team be a road favorite on the second night of a b2b over a 13-22 (10-8 at home) Sacramento team coming off 2 days rest?  By your system the play is Dallas, because the spread should be Sac -6.
HurricaneHauk90 PM HurricaneHauk90
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Posted: 1/10/2013 7:54:17 AM
Because Dallas is known team that Vegas knows people will jump on no matter the record, you see -2 on Dallas against the lowly Kings and go straight to thinking Dallas
TsikenBreast PM TsikenBreast
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Posted: 1/10/2013 8:09:42 AM
@smush last time, dallas was a 6 point favorite at home, without dirk. Accounting home court into the equation, then it shoud be a pick em. dirk accounts for 2 pts but they are playing on a b2b(3 pts) so right line for me sac-1. But then again, As what hurricane said, dallas is the more popular team and public will most likely jumpover them. 

Its just my observation, you can always go the other way as deemed necessary. BOL. 
Smushmachine PM Smushmachine
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Posted: 1/10/2013 8:50:33 AM
I guess I just don't understand your system.  If right line for you is Sac-1 and actual line is Sac -2 there doesn't seem to be much value.
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