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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Johnson's NBA Thursday 12/27
CMJohnson1
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#1
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:32:44 AM
OVERALL RECORD:  84-69 (+20.45u)

Record vs. Spread/ML:  41-39  (+1.65u)
Record vs. O/U:  42-29  (+18.7u)
Record vs. Parlay:  1-1  (+0.1u)
============================================================

3-0 on Wednesday...starting a nice little mini-roll.  Would like to get back up to +30 for the New Year.  Some really nice games on the board for Thursday as well.
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t2005
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#2
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:34:16 AM
do you see a clipper blowout? 
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CMJohnson1
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#3
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:36:37 AM
THURSDAY TRENDS:

Home Teams are 6-9-1 ATS
8 OVERS 8 UNDERS
B2B is 5-3-1 ATS
B2B is 4-6 ATS
Home Favorites are 2-7-1
Home Underdogs are 4-2 ATS
Double Digit Faves are 1-0
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CMJohnson1
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#4
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:44:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by t2005:

do you see a clipper blowout? 


I don't see a blowout necessarily...but the Celtics have struggled big time in the couple weeks following the Christmas game.  Usually this has also held true for their west coast road trip that they are heading into here.
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CMJohnson1
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#5
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:45:33 AM
I am going to wait and see if the line moves anywhere.  If it gets to 9 or more, I will take the Celtics.  I do think the Clippers offense is a bit too much for the Celtics, but I also think the Celtics defense can step up and shut them down to a point
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t2005
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#6
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:56:01 AM
i just know boston wont be able to run n gun with this talented squad
their 2nd string could take care of business, and i believe c's have a new starting center who wont be able to contain clip front court
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t2005
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#7
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:56:36 AM
bol tomorow line will tell the tale
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#8
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:59:31 AM
After the Clippers last game, I heard the coach saying he's disappointed with how they closed out their game. If they are ahead in 1H, I would think they will fight to hold the lead no matter how big their lead is.  
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#9
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:00:18 AM
After the Clippers last game, I heard the coach saying he's disappointed with how they closed out their game. If they are ahead in 1H, I would think they will fight to hold the lead no matter how big their lead is.  
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#10
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:01:38 AM
Sorry about double post...darn phone!  
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#11
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:20:21 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WinSeeker:

After the Clippers last game, I heard the coach saying he's disappointed with how they closed out their game. If they are ahead in 1H, I would think they will fight to hold the lead no matter how big their lead is.  

The talk of the league is about the Clippers.  The Celtics are an extremely proud group and I'm sure they want to make a statement tomorrow.  Also their bench is much deeper than in year's past.  The Celts rebounding problems will probably plague them down the stretch, but I think they will be in this ball game the whole way through, especially with the Clippers not having been challenged for a full 4 quarters for a while.  It's a strong line and warranted as well, but I still think it's too many points.

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CMJohnson1
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#12
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:23:05 AM
I just think the Celtics cover but don't win...like I said, the line will tell
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#13
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:44:38 AM
wdup cm. when the line first came out, i too had a strong lean for boston at 8.5...just way to many points for me to surrender.

but being as hot as they are, at home, and against a new boston team (for the worst) it is almost without a doubt that clipper will win but by how many points is the solution to the equation were all trying to figure out

i understand you want to see if the line moves or not, but is not better to just cap it yourself based on each teams attributes and the information you already have. even if the line moved to +9 with last minute money coming in on the clips from the public, i would still be inclined to think the clips could cover.  the public was HEAVY on the lakers today, almost 92% for the lakers spread. look at it now, +3.5 points had no chance if you watched the game from half time on.

the conservative in me would say go boston +8.5 but i was burned way too many times with that philosophy today.
gonna go clips -8.5 while i can before it moves. any more thoughts on this cmjohnson?
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#14
Posted: 12/27/2012 3:26:12 AM
CP3 is going to show Rondo who is the best PG in the league. DJ and Griffin should dominate the boards since that's Celtics biggest weakness. And the bench, the likes of a has-been Jason Terry and inconsistent Lee versus Bledsoe and Crawford.
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t2005
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#15
Posted: 12/27/2012 4:11:41 AM
^ lmao right, matchup nightmare at every position. pp legs gunna let out after the half along with the rest of the seniors
too good to be true that it isnt a dd line
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#16
Posted: 12/27/2012 4:41:50 AM
starting to actually like the under more and more
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#17
Posted: 12/27/2012 6:44:29 AM
Me too on the under
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#18
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:37:31 AM
Looks like public is all over Celtics. The line could be -7.5 by game time.
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#19
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:32:57 AM
Lots of people chasing Clippers to lose their game after a 14 game winning streak.  
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#20
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:44:45 AM
It looks like a letdown game to me. Just like yesterday, everyone was excited to se Lakers as dogs and look what happened. I'll probably pass on todays card.

Cmj, any thoughts on the dal/okc game?
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CMJohnson1
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#21
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:57:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BetCityOG:

It looks like a letdown game to me. Just like yesterday, everyone was excited to se Lakers as dogs and look what happened. I'll probably pass on todays card.

Cmj, any thoughts on the dal/okc game?


I am holding off on the Mavericks games until I see how they integrate Dirk into the lineup and how they shift the minutes.  They have looked like dogshit for a while now...and with that lineup there is no reason why.
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#22
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:38:36 PM
Maybe 2H plays are the way to go today?
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CMJohnson1
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#23
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:45:05 PM
Boston Celtics +8.5  (1.1 to win 1)

In the past three seasons, the Celtics are 5-3 ATS when traveling from the East Coast to the West Coast.  Looking back at their past results, this is the same situation as they faced in 2009 where they went up against a tough Orlando Magic team and were underdogs by 5.5 points and won SU by 9 points.  They then had to fly out to Los Angeles to play a much weaker Clippers team and lost the game SU as 8.5 point favorites.  I don't think the Celtics will WIN this game straight up, but I do think it will be a physical, tough battle the entire way.  The Celtics can't rebound worth a garbage, but they still force you into difficult shots and keep you from getting "easy" shots.  This is a situational letdown play for the Clippers.  They are the talk of the town and have the best record in the NBA, a position that they have never been in. 

During this winning streak, the Clippers have been able to put up 100+ points 10 times...that is something that I feel they NEED to do tonight if they want to cover.  In those 10 games, they have only faced a decent defense TWICE...vs. Minnesota and Milwaukee ranked 5th and 10th respectively.  7 out of those 10 games in triple digits were against the bottom 6 in defense.  The Celtics don't qualify as a lower level defense in any statistical categories besides rebounding. 

In the end, I will lean towards a veteran team coming in with a chance to end a huge winning streak over a young team just about every time.  Clippers will still win the game IMO because of their fast break and rebounding, but it will be close.

Prediction:  Clippers 97  Celtics 93

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#24
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:57:58 PM
Argh. You and CMM are on opposite sides  
So I'll play both sides! 

I'm thinking: 1H Clippers -5 and over 93 parlay and 2H Celtics and Under. Do you think Clippers start games with stronger offense (1H) and finish with defense (2H)?
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#25
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:04:15 PM
Why wouldn't the Clippers get up for a primetime game?  The letdown will happen on the road tomorrow in Utah. 

The Celtics will most likely be run out of the gym tonight and on Friday vs. GSW.  Before beating a short-handed Brooklyn team on Christmas, the Celtics had not won or covered a spread on the road in a month?  This team just doesn't know how or want to win or play hard on the road.


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