The Doesn't Make Sense Betting System

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: The Doesn't Make Sense Betting System
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/6/2013 12:35:51 PM
I don't think -7 for okc at Toronto is that low of a line. But what I think is odd is that 75% of the public is on okc and line has gone from 8 to 6.5 at some books and I'm getting 7 at -115 for Toronto. Okc is a helluva team so I don't like going against them. But per my system, since it doesn't make sense to bet ain't them... I will bet against them. Locking in Toronto for $230 to win $200 at +7. Good luck all!
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/6/2013 12:36:18 PM
Against not ain't
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/6/2013 5:54:17 PM
Argh. 11-7, back and forth back and forth. +1850
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/6/2013 5:54:58 PM
Sorry, +1830
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bDnews PM bDnews
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Posted: 1/6/2013 6:38:53 PM
Not bad. At least you're making money...
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/7/2013 9:07:27 PM
Taking kings tonight vs Memphis +4 for obvious reasons... It doesn't make sense
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/7/2013 9:07:41 PM
Laying 220 to win 200
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/8/2013 9:37:22 AM
Been forcing the issue as of late, going to limit my picks. I noticed one tonight that is a real head scratcher. Miami is only giving 3 points on the road to Indiana. Miami can show up and beat this team by 20, yet line is only 3. Makes me think something is totally up! Line is is -115 for the pacers too. I friggin don't get it! I love the heat here! But who didn't love okc and San Antonio yesterday? I'm taking pacers +3, $460 to win $400. Record sands at 11-8 (this will improve!) and I am positive $1600. May add more to this game as I research more. Good luck!
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BigUnit PM BigUnit
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Posted: 1/8/2013 9:46:09 AM
I didnt like OKC and SA yesterday, had the Hornets and Magic.  You need to pick your spots carefully.
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/8/2013 10:02:38 AM
Bam! Nice picks for you yesterday. I blew my last few picks. Everything about the Miami game screams to me to take them, and since when I'm hyped on a line and more times than not lose on it, I'm taking the pacers. It is my illogical logic method to the system that doesn't make sense. GL BigUnit!
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BigUnit PM BigUnit
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Posted: 1/8/2013 10:09:49 AM
Have to admit after seeing the line go down to 2.5 and so many saying the Heat is the play, makes me think twice. 
bookiekilla PM bookiekilla
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Posted: 1/8/2013 11:58:26 AM
Indy is 12-3 at home and Miami is just 7-6 on the road....  Yet Miami is favored...  Initially I liked Indy, but the more I think about it Miami might actually be the right play...  Then again, I think to much..  I might just lay off this one.  Good luck! 
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:33:28 PM
Thanks BK, that's a good point. Someone pointed out Arkansas state was headcoachless in Sundays bowl game and unranked vs KSU, yet ASU was still favored. This could be a similar situation. Difference is the line is falling here despite 75% of public jumping on Miami. I have to believe there's some sort of matchup or injury favoring a very close game that the untrained eye, like me and the rest of the public, will miss. After all, if the bookies wanted even action, records aside, seems like the line would be higher. So to me the line doesn't make sense, more so than most of my picks as of late, so I'm hoping this is the spot I have been looking for as were a few of my early winners.
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hawgpix PM hawgpix
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:56:20 PM
Stick to pro sports with your theory.  Seems like NFL and NBA are where Vegas tends to bait at times. Gotta be selective for sure. 
Smushmachine PM Smushmachine
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Posted: 1/8/2013 5:17:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by brandvann:

. After all, if the bookies wanted even action, records aside, seems like the line would be higher. So to me the line doesn't make sense, more so than most of my picks as of late, so I'm hoping this is the spot I have been looking for as were a few of my early winners.

 

Where would you set the line for even action?  At Miami -6, all the Heat bettors are still there, but you lose the people only on Ind because it looked like a trap.  The result is even more money on Miami.

brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/9/2013 10:30:59 AM
12-8 now back to +$2000. Thanks pacers!
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/15/2013 4:47:59 PM
Huuuuur we go! 72%+ on Philly tonight yet line has move from -4, to -3.5, now settling at -3. What gives?!?!? 2 teams heading in different directions. NO having won 4 of last 5 vs quality appointments vs Philly having lost 4 of last 5 with the win against Toronto at home. What doesn't make sense here is why the public is pounding a mediocre Philly team vs a mediocre but improving NO team? I think there must be some big players on Philly for line to drop so much despite the heavy public bet. The game makes sense to me but the public percentages and line don't so I will take the horn dogs +3. Laying $1050 to win $1000. I like this play so largest play by double! Lets get some!
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sscoach PM sscoach
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Posted: 1/15/2013 4:57:04 PM
Sixers are the home team.
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/15/2013 7:50:26 PM
Ya?
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VegasCapper25 PM VegasCapper25
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Posted: 1/15/2013 7:53:29 PM
where do you get your percentages for public plays??
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/16/2013 8:25:01 AM
I use covers, it's a sampling, not totally accurate but it is good enough for me. Record is now 13-8 +$3000!
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:32:39 PM
I hate betting on bad teams but per this system I am have to go with Orlando tonight +2 v Indiana tonight. Public is of course pounding Indiana a they have been playing well most of the season whereas Orlando has been ABOMINABLE (sp?)! Line opened as high as 3, moved to 1 and I'm taking it at 2. Since I hate playing bad teams so badly I'm making this $220 to win $200 bet. This line makes such little sense I just gotta wager on it despite my gut to prove this system works. Good luck all!
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brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:33:59 PM
And as expressed multiple times, I post from my phone so spelling and grammar are god awful. Grin it, bare it, and win it!
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ddjf PM ddjf
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:39:32 PM
Playoffs in any sport tough to cap. So much more games in regular season in pro sports but I get hooked in. NBA playoffs 2 years ago destroyed me, and this last nfl divisonal weekend really f"d me up. I had an 8 unit swing because of Denver 2nd half and Atlanta did what they did all year is never protect any lead. Hey we signed up for this broken hearts and all. LOL. G/L
brandvann PM brandvann
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Posted: 1/16/2013 8:23:26 PM
Lol what the hell are you even saying?
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