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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
kapostsss send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1676
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:26:09 PM
Mavin, Can you say again about days...

Can't find them at first few topic page and don't no where you said about it...

Underdog day, home team, let down, close game day. About that tipe.
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#1677
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:40:34 PM
Post #19 Kapostss
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#1678
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:52:17 PM
Jax  like your thinking with the Denver game. Nuggets put up a stinker last game.  They are better than that and feel they should blow the Jazz out.  Be tail'n you. BOL
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#1679
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:03:34 PM
im not a numbers guy mavin,but something to consider for me regarding the rockets game and looking at results relating to days of the week and vs weak opposition is the fact that this rockets team is a "new edition"in a sense after mchale,not long after returning 2 the sideline a few weeks back,addressed his team regarding their identity and thouroughly impressed upon them that given their personell they MUST run,play up-tempo,make it a hi-possession game.well,they hav obviously bought into it as their results will attest to,passing 100 most games with ease and getting up and down juice hell or hi water.
the point being that the team currently shud perhaps b viewed a little differently than the one that posted all those results you mentioned earlier.as they are playing a faster pace with more possessions they are far more likely to score more points and in games they win,cover more easily.
now i cant say looking ahead that their ATS record will improve as vegas will adjust lines accordingly but playing this style i think gives them more chance to cover medium to big spreads.you either gotta run with them or get left in the dust and,kyrie irving aside,cavaliers dont really hav the shot-makers or ability to get stops to compete all the way.
just my opinion....like i say im not great with numbers as u are but just lookin at it from a playing standpoint
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Gaulstone78
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#1680
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:05:30 PM
kapostsss it is in the first page or two of this thread. read through easy to find.
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#1681
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:08:13 PM
I told him post #10
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#1682
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:09:41 PM
Correction#19
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kapostsss send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1683
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:31:14 PM
tnx   I find it yes and make small notes.

Mavin, can you explain what mean for you this tipe of line movements?

-3 move to -4 , but public betting on favorites.

-3 move to -2 , but public betting on favorites.

-3 move to -4 , but public betting on underdog

-3 move to -2 , but public betting on underdog

What we should expect>?
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#1684
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:32:56 PM
i've got one i feel particularly good about. im playing it and ill share my logic. since i've received so much benefit from this thread.
portland is 4-9 ATS in it's last 13 and to be honest are usually a bad team on the road. i read that kevin love was ruled out tonight, http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/kevin-love-hand-saturday-183800275.html and the line is favorable. They had a good win last night and have been profitable for me in these spots in the past. good luck

portland +6.5
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newty25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
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#1685
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:37:24 PM
It's money vs number of bets. The percentages shown is the number of bets. Line movement is dictated by money, not number of bets.

So, line movement against the number of bets is usually indicative of "sharp" money.
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idiot_savant
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#1686
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:40:13 PM
Marvin, been following your thread for some time now, and its been a great read. Decided to change my betting habits, and being more disciplined. Started on new years and have gone 18-4 thus far. Just wanted to say thanks for the dozens of tips you offered! really helped me to look at capping with a different mindset!
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#1687
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:57:29 PM

I Agree with post #1699 your insight has been very helpful THX !

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dao6911
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#1688
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:14:33 PM
BAck to back Rockets game are 4/3 but winless on the road

Cheveland are 1/10 in those game
POD under 209
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dao6911
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#1689
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:24:02 PM
sorry update Under 211 1/2 Houston Rockets
also Over 194 New Orleans
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#1690
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:25:57 PM
Mavin have you posted your pick on tonights NFL ?
Keep up the good work.
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#1691
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:32:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Saturday Leans:
Something to pay attention to: the most attractive game today seems to be the Rockets in Cleveland. I mean - look at the Rockets and look at the Cavs. One team is flourishing into the 9-1 ATS in last 10 games team. While the other is heavily undermanned and is able to beat only teams like Charlotte that could beat themselves if left alone on the court. The line opening at Houston -5.5? Are you kidding me? The Cavs have lost their last 5 home games by combined 41 points which is average of -8.2 points. The Houston rockets are 4-1 in their last 5 games away showing +45 points margin ratio which is +9 points per game. In that course they beat the teams like Milwaukee, Minnesota, Chicago and the Knicks - losing only to the Spurs by 6 points.
So, now let's check the week day factor. May be that is why the line that opened at Houston -6 is at -5.5 only now while by all the indications this should be a close to DD Houston win.
The Rockets are 3-3 on Saturdays since the beginning of the season and 1-2 in the last 3 games while the win was at Minnesota. Two losses were both at home against OKC and Dallas.
And how the Cavs are doing on Saturdays. I have a feeling we're gonna be surprised here.
Well, they are although 1-7 SU, they covered most of the games on Saturdays. They lost to the Nets in Brooklyn by only 3 points the most recent one, beat(!!!) the Bucks in Milwaukee by 12, lost by 1 to the Knicks in MSG. Those are the recent 3. All covered. Each time in a convincing manner.
So. here's a discussion topic: are the Cavs covering tonight? Covering only the first half? And is the game going Over as we're dealing with the teams that both are 7-3 in the last 10 (14 Overs in the last 20 combined).

And if you wanna get serious about the capping - contribute with the same way of research about each and every game


There's not much to this game. My money is always on the casino's side. When the general public wins, that's when I have my losing days. When your betting against the public, it will make for winning years. Sometimes you have losing days, maybe weeks, maybe if anything a losing a month, but you will never have a losing year!

For this discussion there are 2 plays in my mind for this Cleveland/Houston game:

Cleveland +6.5  &  Under 211.5 -- Public is hammering opposite sides. These should be 2 clear winners for tonight. At least they are apart of my card which usually is green by 12AM
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#1692
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:44:51 PM
Brendan, that may be the dumbest way to handicap that I've ever heard of.
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#1693
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:55:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by newty25:

Brendan, that may be the dumbest way to handicap that I've ever heard of.


Okay, you want me to show you my history of last Friday and Saturday? I went on a 40-4 streak of picks. I bet your one of the donks that bet all the top betting trends of the day LOL. How does being on the casino's side of wages not make sense?
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#1694
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:58:25 PM
Minn Rubio and Love to miss game versus Portland. Minn are on their third game in four days, while Portland is finishing up their 4th game in 5 days on the road. Both teams to be playing sorry defense, looking at the over 191.5
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#1695
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:09:18 PM
40-4 is a hell of streak, I've hit 16 in a row in baseball, but nothing like that. How did your system work last week. What was the record?
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#1696
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:12:18 PM
7pm games picks  is the BOLD Print

 
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#1697
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:15:37 PM
Brendan, There's no such thing as "the casino side." The objective of a sports book (the proper term), is having half the money wagered on one side or the other. They take the juice down the middle for a guaranteed profit.

The percentages you're looking at is simply the number of bets placed with a book. Not where the money is. In other words, a sports book may take in 100 bets, 99 of them for $1 each and 1 bet for $100. The percentage you see is 99% on the $1 side and 1% on the $100 side, yet a majority the money is on the 1% side.

I'm happy that won. A broke clock is right twice a day though. Don't invest too much money in that handicapping scheme. You'll eventually go broke.
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#1698
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:16:39 PM
7pm games picks 
MIL BUCKS   +4  and over 187
NYNICKS        -6  AND UNDER 194.5
BOS CELTIC  +5  AND OVER 188
CLE CAVALIERS +6  AND UNDER 209
SAC KINGS +7.5  AND OVER 195
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#1699
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:22:14 PM
8PM  GAMES PICKS

POR TRAIL BLAZERS   +6.5 AND OVER 191
SA SPUR   -13.5   AND OVER 197.5
DAL MAVERICKS  -6  AND OVER 192.5
UTA JAZZ  +9   AND OVER 202
GS WARRIORS  +6   AND UNDER 201
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#1700
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:22:36 PM
NFL picks are at the NFL forum naturally
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