Posted:
#1
I'm not happy with Denver. I've posted twice this season and they didn't show up in one game and the other, they did everything possible to get 1 pt outside the 5 they were getting against the Knicks.
Solution: Screw Denver and look to another team.
This time it's my two locals and I can tell you very quickly there are pertinent and obvious reasons this is a bad spot for the Nets.
1) They are on a 4 game losing streak and look to be regressing.
Most alarmingly they went down by almost 30 to the Bucks AT HOME last game. The Bucks are a semi-decent team but really a bottom of the pack/middling Eastern Conference team. And in that game, Ellis and Jennings, the only guys who can score on the team dropped 24 and 26 respectively on them as the Nets D was largely nonexistent and the Bucks ran them out of the building.
Why the losing streak? That's the next bullet.
2) No Brook Lopez. Lopez was one of the main reasons the Nets won against the Knicks last time out on 11/26/12 dropping 22 pts and 11 Rebounds. He was a new Brook, with post up moves that I really didn't think he had the potential to execute. His low post game was emerging as one of the best in the league for centers. And now another nagging foot injury that limited him to 5 games last season rears its ugly head once again.
I was delighted to see how well he was doing early on, even grabbing more rebounds on defense which I didn't think I'd see, but was apprehensive when the Nets signed him to a max contract last year because of his feet. And here it is, not even a quarter of the way through the season and the Nets are without Brook.
That is big because:
3) The Nets have no true center and they need one.
They are using a platoon of Blatche, who appears alive at times and has performed admirably in games, and Kris Kardashian underneath and Kris K simply can't handle it after giving 4p and 4r and 4p and 7r in his last 2. I've watched him specifically and looks lost out of his natural forward position without Brook to lean on underneath. As far as Blatche, the offense simply doesn't flow as well when he's on the floor but he has been filling up the box score in the past 4 with Brook out.
I think Chandler will keep him in check tonight and when he disappears the Nets desperately lean on Deron for offense who averages 16/8 and sometimes can drop 26/28 when he's hot but you can't expect him to do that night in night out. Where's the rest of the offense? An older Gerald Wallace and more disturbingly, Stackhouse in key situations. Reggie Evans couldn't score if the basket were as big as the rings of Saturn.
4) Kidd will be at full strength this game.
This alone warrants the Knicks consideration. His history with the Nets is obvious (where HE forced himself off the team) and has become the effective team leader while Melo has deferred in that role this role. And Melo, even with the stitches, performed masterfully last game and does not want to lose 2 of 2 in his home city with this being his last trip there, particularly in a revenge spot.
The -3.5 is steep but I don't see it being close late for the Nets to get inside this number. I see a 7/9 point lead with free throws to end it and the 3.5 will be a nonfactor as Kidd or Melo dribbles out the clock.
Too many positives for the Knicks here against a floundering Nets team, even at home catching 3.5. Hopefully, this will be a winner.
The pick:
KNICKS +3.5 over NETS
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