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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Johnson's NBA Saturday 12/8
CMJohnson1
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#1
Posted: 12/8/2012 1:55:11 AM
OVERALL RECORD:  60-47 (25.6u)

Record vs. Spread:  29-27  (+5.5u)
Record vs. O/U:  31-19  (+21.1u)
Record vs. Parlay:  0-1  (-1u)
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Back in the groove.  Took a while to figure out that with the sharper lines I actually had to dig a little big deeper than my initial thoughts and go farther into the trends and stats to get my picks.  No doubt in my mind that I will be back above 60% by Christmas.  Thought I could get by with just gut feelings and thinking that I "knew" the NBA...which lead to a lot of close plays and tough losses....gotta be better than that.
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CMJohnson1
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#2
Posted: 12/8/2012 1:57:36 AM
SATURDAY TRENDS:

Home Teams are 20-25 ATS
21 OVERS 24 UNDERS
B2B is 30-25 ATS
Home Underdogs are 4-9 ATS
Double Digit Favorites are 2-1 ATS
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CMJohnson1
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#3
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:07:27 AM
Phoenix Suns +11  (1.1 to win 1)

Way too many points for an early game on a Saturday.  The Suns have covered 5 of their last 7 games as a double digit dog...the Clippers have lost SU in 2 of their 3 games as double digit favorites.  Basically...this is a "do enough to win the game" type of game for the Clippers.  The Suns got embarassed under a pressure type of situation against the Mavericks the other night.  They put the pressure on them to perform on their home court or give the fans their money back if they weren't entertained.  I mean, beyond the fact that it is a stupid idea on a nationally televised game against a team that is better than you...why put the players under added pressure?  I would not be surprised to see the Suns win this game.

Prediction:  Clippers 102  Suns 98
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#4
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:19:48 AM
We all fall into the trap of thinking we know shitt after a few winning days, the linesmakers are the only ones that actually know shitt, good luck tomorrow man.  


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#5
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:23:07 AM
Any thoughts on SAS -8.5 and GSW -4.5 ??  
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#6
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:25:51 AM
CMJ YOu dont like the UNder 202.5 in the Suns game? 
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CMJohnson1
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#7
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:27:36 AM
The Warriors do very well so far this season on a B2B...so I would prefer them over the Spurs...who just manhandled the Rockets, and miight be due for a letdown game, or more likely one of those famous "do enough to win" games.
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CMJohnson1
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#8
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:29:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PicKnRole:

CMJ YOu dont like the UNder 202.5 in the Suns game? 


I do like the UNDER based on the fact that it is an early afternoon game, which generally falls in the UNDER category...however with these two teams it is just not safe enough for my liking
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CMJohnson1
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#9
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:29:37 AM
As you could see with my prediction at 200
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#10
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:35:07 AM
Yea I kno its scary taking under in a suns game, but i stil think it has value. Both teams combined average 198.6 ppg>  . Shouldn't the line be set at 198?
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#11
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:40:34 AM
cmj im with u, 11 pts is alot
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CMJohnson1
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#12
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:41:04 AM
It should, which would make people think UNDER

But I really see it ending pretty damn close to the number
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#13
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:50:20 AM
Yea i got a feeling we will see alot of foul shots to to help it over the total.  If the line goes down to 199.5 i will Smash the Over 
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#14
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:55:23 AM
Iv noticed betting against the line movement on TNT Thursdays has been doing well.  WIth this being the only day game, it will get lots of action, and im betting against the line movement.  BOL 
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#15
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:31:43 AM
CMJ, what are your thoughts about phi@bos? Considering that they both play back2back and phi have won twice in their past meetings this season. And also, about noh@mia. Do you think Miami will play harder after their tough lost against the Knicks and can cover a huge spread for tomorrow's game?
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#16
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:56:53 AM
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#17
Posted: 12/8/2012 7:50:09 AM

BOL to you, CMJ.

I like Suns to keep the game close too.  It's rare to see a Saturday afternoon game.  I think those were always reserved for College Football. 

Like the UNDER too.  I would assume that Clipper defense will show up a little more to keep Phoenix from reach 100....

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#18
Posted: 12/8/2012 7:50:27 AM
*reaching*
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#19
Posted: 12/8/2012 7:57:09 AM
I just don't know if Phoenix has the fire power to hang with this Clippers team. I lean over because I think Clippers will get to 115 alone and carry this game over.
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#20
Posted: 12/8/2012 8:00:42 AM
I can agree with your Suns pick for the reason I have the over in this one. The only chance the Suns have to keep it close is if they run.
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#21
Posted: 12/8/2012 9:56:39 AM

Hello CMJ, appreciate all your work.

Quick ?....Where might I find Suns +11 @110?

I have had a few losses by the hook this month.

 

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#22
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:20:26 AM
Tough game to call, however he's right Phoenix loves to hang in. On the other hand, the clippers seem to be putting a little string together of smashing inferior teams. 

On personally liking the Waariors on the b2b and covering against the wizards. 
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#23
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:27:52 AM
Awesome night CMJ, good to see you back on top. I knew it wouldn't be long. Keep up the good work & keep yhem W's coming!
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#24
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:34:48 AM
You can't win every day. If we all do, this business wouldnt exist. Keep up the good work. 


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#25
Posted: 12/8/2012 11:02:34 AM
With the Bulls on an interesting streak and a solid Defense, and the Knicks still without Melo, what do you think of Chicago ML ?

BOL 
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