Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Toronto/Denver line
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#1
Posted: 12/3/2012 9:44:43 AM
I think the Raptors actually matchup quite well with Denver as they start their 5 game road trip after 2 days off. 

PG: High energy Lowry is rounding into shape and Calderon has thrived off the bench. They are averaging 13 assists between them. IMO, they virtually neutralize any big advantage the strong duo of Lawson and Miller bring. Lowry is also one of the best(if not the best) rebounding PG's in the league at 6 per game. Also, the Raptors protect the ball and are 3rd best in the league in turnovers, mostly as a result of their PG play.

SG: DeRozan is savvy and quick and leads them in scoring at 18 ppg. DeRozan also gets to the line almost 6 times a game. Iguodala will likely utilize his size advantage to post up or shoot over him, but his shooting percentage has never been stellar(46%) and the Nuggets spread the ball around so it's difficult for one player to go off. Brewer is a solid SG off the bench and Raps rookie Terrence Ross hasn't shown much, but plays solid D.

SF: Gallinari leads the Nuggets in scoring but is shooting a miserable 38% and 28% from 3 point range. Kleiza might be in a little over his head defensively, but just returned Pietrus matches up well with Danilo and see a lot of minutes form Mickael tonight. I wouldn't underestimate Pietrus' potential contributions on both ends of the floor. He adds a lot to their bench rotation.

PF: Interesting matchups here as Bargnani has a clear size advantage on Faried. Bargnani did not do much on Friday, but I expect him to get some nice looks with Faried on him. Faried is a beast on the boards, but I really like Amir Johnson and Ed Davis to come off the bench and compete for rebounds. Johnson and Davis average over 10 rebounds between them and are grinders.  They must show up against a strong rebounding Denver team(2nd in the league).

C: Valanciunas is averaging a very respectable 10 ppg and 6 rpg on 51% shooting. Koufos does not really have any advantages here. One concern is McGee, who can certainly use his speed and quickness to score quickly and outrebound Jonas.


All in all, I don't see a double digit gap in talent between these 2 teams. Both are in the bottom 7 in defensive efficiency and I don't think the Nuggets are that significantly superior in the offensive portion of the game. 
Though the Raps have gotten blown out aplenty this year, I think with a more healthy Lowry, the return of Pietrus, Calderon's play on the 2nd unit and a 10 man deep rotation, they stand a chance to hang tonight.

I am taking the Raptors +10.5. Good luck with your plays.



quote
Benson13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
Benson13
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 72
Location:
#2
Posted: 12/3/2012 10:12:42 AM
Very good insight into the game Wolf.
How do you feel about the over under?

quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#3
Posted: 12/3/2012 10:17:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Benson13:

Very good insight into the game Wolf.
How do you feel about the over under?


Would lean over with these 2 rather poor defensive teams.

Good luck if you play it.

quote
johnpolino04 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
johnpolino04
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 324
Location: New York
#4
Posted: 12/3/2012 10:40:27 AM
who is denver to be given -10.5 they play awful in there last to match up.... toronto +10.5 to cover there bet and over 202.5 is star 201 is raised up a little be line alway talked
quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 35080
Location: California
#5
Posted: 12/3/2012 11:31:09 AM
As always wolf, great analysis, keep up the good work 
quote
Mad_Skillz123 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Mad_Skillz123
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 13675
Location:
#6
Posted: 12/3/2012 11:52:53 AM
i just came from work, saw the lines and felt TOR+10.5 looks solid.


now, you...
quote
johnpolino04 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
johnpolino04
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 324
Location: New York
#7
Posted: 12/3/2012 11:54:35 AM
they already drop down the .5 look i believe it will go down to 9  or 8.5
quote
Mad_Skillz123 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Mad_Skillz123
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 13675
Location:
#8
Posted: 12/3/2012 12:20:15 PM
8.5 imo is the correct line and no value at all
quote
capskip
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capskip
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 24359
Location: Florida
#9
Posted: 12/3/2012 12:45:21 PM
BOL TONIGHT.....
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#10
Posted: 12/3/2012 1:27:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

8.5 imo is the correct line and no value at all

The Raptors have 4 losses greater than 10 points this year:
@OKC,@Boston,@Houston and @Memphis. All of those losses occurred on either the 1st leg or 2nd leg of a B2B. That is not the situation tonight. 

IMO, the only really awful loss was to Boston where the Raps had 3 days off to prepare and just did not show up(also did not have Lowry or Pietrus).
The Raptors caught Houston after they had 3 days rest and had just heard about McHale's daughter's death that day.mObviously motivational for Houston.
OKC and Memphis are top 10 defensive teams and there is not much shame in losing by DD to those championship contending teams on the road, imo. Denver is not in the same league as either of these teams as far as defense.

quote
jtelemaq
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Caesars Palace |
jtelemaq
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1487
Location: Pennsylvania
#11
Posted: 12/3/2012 1:50:54 PM
Great play, also on it
quote
dcowboys send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dcowboys
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 4460
Location: British
              Columbia
#12
Posted: 12/3/2012 2:38:18 PM
Good insight. Still undecided
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
dbear45 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
dbear45
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 289
Location: Ontario
#13
Posted: 12/3/2012 3:41:51 PM
Good insight but the last 5 times the Raps pleyed in Denver they have lost by an average of 27.4 pts.

01/27/12 Denver 96 Toronto 81
03/21/11 Denver 123 Toronto 90
11/17/09 Denver 130 Toronto 112
12/02/08 Denver 132 Toronto 93 
03/14/08 Denver 137 Toronto 105 

Now this is a totally new roster for the Raps but looking at these scores from the last time they met in Denver is scary. Just my 2 cents. They may cover but just wanted to share some info. Bol
quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 35080
Location: California
#14
Posted: 12/3/2012 3:53:02 PM
I'm a little worried about the Raps generating enough points if Iggy plays against DeRozan for a majority of the game.
quote
qster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
qster
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 1723
Location: Canada
#15
Posted: 12/3/2012 4:00:21 PM
The over looks to be a safer play
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#16
Posted: 12/3/2012 4:58:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbear45:

Good insight but the last 5 times the Raps pleyed in Denver they have lost by an average of 27.4 pts.

01/27/12 Denver 96 Toronto 81
03/21/11 Denver 123 Toronto 90
11/17/09 Denver 130 Toronto 112
12/02/08 Denver 132 Toronto 93 
03/14/08 Denver 137 Toronto 105 

Now this is a totally new roster for the Raps but looking at these scores from the last time they met in Denver is scary. Just my 2 cents. They may cover but just wanted to share some info. Bol

dbear45--thanks for posting the Raptors past abysmal performances in Denver. Certainly not encouraging, but I did take that into consideration.


Importantly, to me, this is the 1st time in the last 10 years where they are starting a road trip in Denver. All the matchups you listed were in the midst of road trips. I really think the 1st game of such a long road trip is when you get you likely get your freshest effort. That's especially crucial in high altitude Denver. 

In fact, when you look at the Raptors first game of a road trip involving 3 or more Western Conference teams here are the results over the last 10 years:

1.2002-03 season--lost at OKC 97-88, lost @Denver 95-87, won @Boston 98-95
2.2003-04--lost @Portland 83-80, lost @Utah 97-94(OT), won @ GS 84-81(OT), won at New Orleans 121-120(OT)
3.2004-05--lost @ Sac 108-92, lost @ Phx 106-94, lost @San Antonio 92-86
4.2005-06--lost 90-82 @Phx, lost @Utah 111-98, won @ Minny 98-94
5.2006-07--lost @Sac 107-92, lost @Phx 115-98
6.2007-08--lost @Dal 105-99, won @LAC 80-77, lost at LAL 117-108
7.2008-09--lost @LAL 112-99, lost @OKC 91-83, lost at New Orleans 101-92
8.2009-10--won @NO 107-90, won @LAC 104-89, lost @LAL 109-107
9.2010-11--lost @SAC 111-108, lost @Mem 95-86, won @OKC 95-93
10.2011-12--lost @ LAC 103-91

The Raps actually hung around in the these first game of road trips, losing only 7 of the 28(25%) total games by more than 10 points, with the largest loss being by 17 points. There were certainly some much worse Raptors teams than this one in this mix, leading to some of these blowouts. I think this Raptors team is better, talent wise, than most of the ones the last 10 years(only one Raps team had a winning record in this 10 year stretch).
Overall, these 1st game results were much closer than their last 5 outings in Denver.

It's certainly possible we see another blowout, but I am going with a well rested Raps squad, with good positional matchups, to play with some gusto tonight against a poor defensive team, in their first game of a long 5 game Western road swing.

quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#17
Posted: 12/3/2012 4:59:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I'm a little worried about the Raps generating enough points if Iggy plays against DeRozan for a majority of the game.

Thanks for the input kap.

A valid concern. Though I do think Iggy is more a product of team defensive concepts rather than stellar one on one defensive skills. Karl really doesn't employ any team defensive strategy whatsoever.



quote
thehuntman
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
thehuntman
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 8224
Location: Ontario
#18
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:23:45 PM

Hey wolf for what its worth I live in Toronto and have followed the Raptors quite closely over the years, Be very careful tonight for a few reasons other than the fact the Raps stink especially on the road. Denver got crushed its last time out and will be looking to lay a beating with no let up on Toronto. Denver is playing at home after 3 straight road games then play another 5 on the road after tonight so this game is important for them. The Raptors have yet to cover the spread this year after a win which shows that they have a hard time keeping any type of momentum. Toronto always seem to go through shooting slumps during a game but more so on the road which usually ends up killing them. Toronto hasn't won a game in Denver since 2003 (8 straight losses). I know it isn't the same players but for some reason they just don't travel well to Denver. Last 5 losses are by 33, 39, 18, 33 and 15. Lastly they always are getting out coached and tonight should be know different. Comparing Karl and Casey is laughable.

GL Bud 

quote
SuperSlapem send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SuperSlapem
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 3201
Location:
#19
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:24:50 PM
Tor is also one of the best at limiting their opponents to 9 offensive rebounds per game which is one of Denver's strengths. Im on em as well. Thx for the writeup. I feel much more confident in this play now.

BOL.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
cashinsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cashinsports
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 4482
Location:
#20
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:25:05 PM
Always check your thread. Respect.

I can never trust my town team.... The CRaptors.

Good luck.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
SuperSlapem send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SuperSlapem
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 3201
Location:
#21
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:25:21 PM
Tor is also one of the best at limiting their opponents to 9 offensive rebounds per game which is one of Denver's strengths. Im on em as well. Thx for the writeup. I feel much more confident in this play now.

BOL.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#22
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:36:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thehuntman:

Hey wolf for what its worth I live in Toronto and have followed the Raptors quite closely over the years, Be very careful tonight for a few reasons other than the fact the Raps stink especially on the road. Denver got crushed its last time out and will be looking to lay a beating with no let up on Toronto. Denver is playing at home after 3 straight road games then play another 5 on the road after tonight so this game is important for them. The Raptors have yet to cover the spread this year after a win which shows that they have a hard time keeping any type of momentum. Toronto always seem to go through shooting slumps during a game but more so on the road which usually ends up killing them. Toronto hasn't won a game in Denver since 2003 (8 straight losses). I know it isn't the same players but for some reason they just don't travel well to Denver. Last 5 losses are by 33, 39, 18, 33 and 15. Lastly they always are getting out coached and tonight should be know different. Comparing Karl and Casey is laughable.

GL Bud 


Much appreciate your thoughts as a Raptors follower and fan. 

I am concerned with Denver and their 3 game losing streak. Are they pissed? I'm not sure since it's so early in the season. Do they come out looking to pounce? If so, it could get ugly. 
Also concerning is their overall rebounding prowess---Davis,Johnson, Valanciunas and Andrea need to crash the boards to stop transition buckets and also limit cheap putbacks.

I do think that the Raptors backcourt will keep them in the game. With Lowry and Calderon 10.5 points is a lot to be getting, imo.

I agree on the coaching. Casey is nowhere near Karl.

quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#23
Posted: 12/3/2012 5:38:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

Always check your thread. Respect.

I can never trust my town team.... The CRaptors.

Good luck.


Too bad you team does not much your city. I've always had a great time when visiting Toronto. Surprisingly high number of good looking women concentrated in the metro area. 

quote
vegaslover send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
vegaslover
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 3386
Location: United States
#24
Posted: 12/3/2012 11:38:51 PM
Good call as always bud!  Never in doubt!
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3281
Location:
#25
Posted: 12/3/2012 11:39:02 PM


Great 4th quarter, no quit effort from the Raptors. They actually had several opportunities to take the lead but could not quite get there.
quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.