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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: RussellK's One Play a Day (4-1 last week)
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
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#76
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:30:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RussellK:

Today's play is:

Indiana - this play may end up making me feel like the world's biggest dope, but I have a very hard time seeing how the Raps will have anything left tonight after last night's loss....I watched the whole game and it was a demoralizing loss emotionally, as well as incredibly draining physically.....Calderon played 50 minutes, Derozen played 60, Bargnani 48....plus they had to leave immediately after the game and fly to Indiana.....Pacers last played at home on Saturday where they beat Washington to snap a 3 game losing streak, so they are rested and have some momentum.....Raps will have a hard time keeping this game with 20 points....

Indiana -9 
$1100 to win $1000

BOL to all   





I saw the writing on the wall but chose not to listen.....KC, I too am from Toronto, and I have the exact same experience as you....I almost never bet on or against the Raptors for that reason.....and I heard the whispering in my ear yesterday, reminding me of that....but the way the Raps have played so far this year, and with all the other factors working against them last night, I just could not see a way for them to not bet blown out.....I thought about this game a lot and turned it around in my mind, trying to find something to make me pass but I simply could not.....I thought the chances of the play winning was 90%......but even 90% means 1 time out of 10 it will go the other way,  and I feel like last night's result was that 1....it's disappointing because again I settled on the wrong game, as my leans on NY and Brooklyn were correct....

Starting the week 0-2 is definitely not good but today has a fresh slate of games, and there is still time to turn the week around, so nothing to do but buckle down and re-focus.....

Thanks again for the support and encouragement guys      

I am off to study today's card....I'll be back with my thoughts


Week 1: 4-1 $2900   

Week 2: 0-2 -$2300




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#77
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:42:23 AM
Damn, I wish I had seen this yesterday...loved TOR but didn't pull the trigger on the +400 ML

GL moving fwd
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#78
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:00:16 PM
No problem Russ you can turn this week around with a big win today!
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#79
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:36:35 PM

I took yesterday off after that measly dallas game, and I saw that you broke the GOLDEN RULE last night RK! I know it seems very tempting at times but alllllways stay away from your home team or any team you have emotional ties to... It is ok though you live and you learn. Looking foreward to reading your write ups for tonight. I am leaning on the ROX -6

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#80
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:41:55 PM

The Raptors and Blue Jays always kill me. I thought Indiana would smoke Toronto last night. Thinking Bucks tonight.

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#81
Posted: 11/14/2012 3:26:58 PM
Golden state isn't a bad option considering Atlanta is playing 3 in 4 on the road!
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#82
Posted: 11/14/2012 6:14:38 PM
BOL guys 
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#83
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:06:15 PM
You are right migneo, I did break the golden rule....but as you said, live and learn....I won't be making that mistake anytime soon....

Here are my thoughts on today's games:

Milwaukee - Bucks coming off a win in Philly on Monday....Pacers coming off that bad loss to Toronto last night....Indy only 1-4 on the road and getting only 4 points....my only hesitation is the tendency of getting screwed twice by the same team in situations like this, where you back them and lose one night, and then fade them and lose the next....but this play does look pretty good to me...

Charlotte - Bobcats 0-2 on the road and Wolves 3-0 at home produces a 7 point spread, but Minny players continue to drop like flies, with Pekovic now out after getting hurt on Monday....at this point the best players for Minny are Kirilenko and rookie Alexey Shved, with Greg Steimsma and Dante Cunningham starting as well....it is hard to win consistently in the NBA with that lineup....I think 7 points is way too much, but after losing with Dallas and Indiana the past 2 nights, I don't think I want to back another shitty team....

Detroit/Washington - Philly coming off a home loss to Milwaukee...Dallas have lost 3 straight....both games have 8 point spreads....wouldn't it be funny if both winless teams broke through on the same night? I can't actually back either dog, but I would be hesitant about relying on either fav here...

GS - Atlanta coming off a very impressive win in Portland and being 2-1 on the road, while GS has lost 2 straight and is 1-2 at home....and yet it is GS that is favoured by 1...seems like the Hawks should be favoured....the line says to me that the Warriors take this game....

Memphis - both the Grizzlies and the Thunder come into this game riding 5 game winning streaks, and this is a beautiful matchup, and will be the game I will be watching tonight.....two main reasons why I like this play so much is 1st, OKC is playing their 5th game in 7 nights, but more importantly, the Grizzlies will be playing with a lot of emotion, having lost their assistant general manager yesterday after a long bout with cancer....I think they come out inspired, after dedicating this game to him....

Boston - Maybe I faded the wrong team after that triple-OT game....just as Raps dug deep and won after losing, the Jazz may have a letdown after winning....Celtics really impressed me last time out with a big win in Chicago....Gartett, Rondo and Pierce all look like they have renewed focus and intensity and have put their 0-2 start behind them....really like this play and it almost made the cut...

But in the end I decided to go with:
Miami - Heat playing at a very high level, and had a great win in Houston Monday night....after letting the Rockets come back from an early 22-5 hole and taking the lead, the Heat buckled down and pulled out the win in the end....Clippers very impressive lately themselves, winning 3 straight, but they seem to be vulnerable at home, where both of their losses have occurred....this is more gut then anything, but I really like Miami to win this game...

Miami +1 
$1100 to win $1000

BOL to all   
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#84
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:12:48 PM
wait so do you like the bucks -4?

good luck
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#85
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:14:27 PM
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#86
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:15:47 PM
I really enjoy your write ups RussellK.  Great insight!  Keep up the good work and turn this week around!! BOL!!!
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#87
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:19:15 PM
Good luck RussellK!
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#88
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:23:33 PM
Nice write-ups,not sure how you ended up on Miami,lol but its a pk,so just need to win.
GL to you.
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#89
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:44:07 PM
With you again RussellK! BOL 
Lets get back on track tonight! 
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#90
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:45:29 PM
davo - yes, I like the Bucks....I like whichever team I start the paragraph with   

MM, ema, jmag   

Jeg, I went with logic that past 2 nights and lost, so tonight I am going with gut....but you are right, based on my write-ups, you would have thought I'd go with either Boston or Memphis, and truth be told, logically I like those plays more, but instinct tells me to take the Heat, so the Heat it is   


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#91
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:49:38 PM

GL, the HEAT were my 2nd pick for the Survivor Pick...I took Griz +5.5

wwheee

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#92
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:50:13 PM
any thoughts on the rockets game?
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#93
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:52:21 PM
heat all the way..
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#94
Posted: 11/14/2012 8:11:52 PM
Best write-ups ainec
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#95
Posted: 11/14/2012 9:12:39 PM
BOL 
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#96
Posted: 11/14/2012 9:18:56 PM
Detroit about to win.....boston winning.....milwaukee crushing.....charlotte up big.....memphis up......

HEAT BETTER WIN!!!!

I better not have another night where all my leans come through but my actual play loses.....
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#97
Posted: 11/14/2012 9:33:15 PM
GL!
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#98
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:07:27 PM
GL RussellK. Feeling good about your pick. Don't worry about the heat after looking at all the other games. Just goes to show your analysis of the NBA is top notch. We'll win this one too. 
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#99
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:13:23 PM
I took your mil pick instead of MIA. They've always managed to find a way to kick my behind. DWade is a giant cry baby and I feel like the Robin role is getting to him this season. Cannot rely on him.
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#100
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:17:29 PM
Thanks guys....I really hope the Heat come through, but if they don't I will cut this week short and hold off on any more betting until Monday, but regardless I will still cap games and post write-ups, since the write-ups seem to be helpful.....if you are using my write-ups to determine plays you are probably happy this week, even though I am 0-2....and you are probably thinking playing only 1 game is a mistake   


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