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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: RussellK's One Play a Day (4-1 last week)
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:53:47 PM
Great start to the season, going 4-1 +$2900, and unofficially 3-0 posted but not played over the weekend (and that will be the last time I mention that because you know that had I gone 0-3 instead of 3-0 you would not be hearing a peep out of me about anything "unofficial"   )

If anyone is interested in the how and the why of what I do, everything is explained in last week's thread here:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101466287&page=1

For today, some nice games, but some I am definitely wary of. Upon 1st glance, here's what I like ( lot of dogs today) :

Milwaukee
Toronto
Detroit
Houston
Dallas
Phoenix

I'll marinate on these for the next couple of hours and be back once I've decided on the play   

Any thoughts would be appreciated   
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#2
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:55:41 PM
really like dallas off 2 strt losses coming home and looking for a big win to get their mojo back! mayo plays lights out in dallas, minny cant score period!  yes they play def, but this one could be dallas 105-80, just my 2 cents
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#3
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:12:39 PM
With the line at -5 for MIA, people are expecting MIA to bounce back big after a big loss. Dont see this being the case. Dwade has been playing like trash all year and plays extremely emotional. Id fade MIA here.
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RocNRose
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#4
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:16:35 PM
Liking Over with the Crapters.. GL!
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#5
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:41:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Xelorvegas:

really like dallas off 2 strt losses coming home and looking for a big win to get their mojo back! mayo plays lights out in dallas, minny cant score period!  yes they play def, but this one could be dallas 105-80, just my 2 cents

I like everything you say   
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#6
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:41:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheLeaguesOwn:

With the line at -5 for MIA, people are expecting MIA to bounce back big after a big loss. Dont see this being the case. Dwade has been playing like trash all year and plays extremely emotional. Id fade MIA here.

I like where you're going with this   
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#7
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:43:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RocNRose:

Liking Over with the Crapters.. GL!

If I could cap totals maybe I could comment....but sure, over sounds good, why not   
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#8
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:49:39 PM

where are you leaning R2K?

also like the tblazers at home after 2 strt losses, poor team is taleneted but not deep and those starters are playing great but tons of minutes.

Atl looking lost, they are so emotional fragile this team and i can seem repeating the sunday clipper performance

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#9
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:58:10 PM
Good luck
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#10
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:01:34 PM
Really liking the spot Detroit is in tonight, coming home after a brutal road trip to start the season they'll be hungry for a win and to play at home in front of the crowd. Similar to the spot Sacramento was in last week. Thunder are on back-to-back with there starters not getting much rest. Think Detroit at least covers here... Just my 2 cents. Good Luck whichever way you go bud
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#11
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:10:17 PM
Ok, here are my thoughts on these games:

Milwaukee - Philly seems to be a no-brainer....coming home after winning all 3 games on their road trip, being a dog in each one.....and now at home they are only 4 point favorites against Milwaukee? Seems fishy to me.....I am always wary of teams coming off successful road trips because that 1st game back home is a classic letdown spot....I wouldn't be surprised to see the bucks win this game....however with other games to choose from fading a hot team is something I will pass on

Toronto - I can't really back them until they exhibit some measure of consistency, but I would be careful about backing Utah tonight....like so many teams, they are very different home and away, and the Raps have a tendency to bite you when you least expect it....maybe this is the homer in me talking, but I feel like they win this one...however, it's a pass

Detroit - similar to above, I can't back the Pistons, but I would be hesitant about OKC....Pistons hung around enough to push when these teams played a few days ago in OKC, and I can see this game being close as well.....Detroit is a young team, but no one likes to be winless....its just this sort of game where they earn their 1st win and you're left saying, "huh....I did not see that one coming"

Houston - I'm not sure why everyone seems to think the Heat will bounce back after yesterday's bad loss in Memphis....Rockets are a great team, Harden is a beast, they just earned their 1st win at home and they will want to keep the momentum going....Heat are the better team on paper, no doubt, but Lebron and Wade are banged up and back to back road games in the NBA are tough, no matter who you are....5-6 points seems way to much when I feel like the dog can easily win outright.....really like this play and it almost made the cut

Phoenix - I like this new look Phoenix team, they can surprised this season....Nuggets on a 4 game winning streak, coming off a big double OT win in GS.....good fade spot on a team that typically does not play well on the road....however as with Philly, I'd rather not fade a hot team, though I do really like this play

But in the end, I have decided to go with:
Dallas - I just can't see how Minny competes in this game....besides not having Love and Rubio, they just lost Budinger, Barea and Roy.....Dallas still without Dirk and Marion, but Mayo is killing it, and overall they are a much better team....add in home court and its difficult to imagine Mavs not winning by double digits

Dallas -6 (bought the hook, -120)
$1200 to win $1000

BOL to all   
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#12
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:13:34 PM
halo   
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#13
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:14:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hattrick810:

Really liking the spot Detroit is in tonight, coming home after a brutal road trip to start the season they'll be hungry for a win and to play at home in front of the crowd. Similar to the spot Sacramento was in last week. Thunder are on back-to-back with there starters not getting much rest. Think Detroit at least covers here... Just my 2 cents. Good Luck whichever way you go bud

You and I are like minded here   
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#14
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:15:31 PM
love the play goodluck tonight
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#15
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:20:27 PM
dallllllllllllas
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#16
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:50:01 PM
With you on Dallas but I got it at -7
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#17
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:58:09 PM
bean, xel, TLO   

-7 should be good also
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#18
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:01:11 PM
Thanks r2k gl to you as well!
I'm on tblazers, under okc, under jazz
Ttyl
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#19
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:18:20 PM
Nice job on your write ups. I like the call on Dallas. Thanks
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#20
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:22:40 PM
Btw, love your long term betting methodology and system.
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#21
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:47:26 PM

Thanks R2K! BOL

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#22
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:57:45 PM

BOL     Bang em out

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#23
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:09:46 PM
Lets get it BOL
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anya6687
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#24
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:10:45 PM
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tom-jerry
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#25
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:11:25 PM
dal
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