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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 2012-13 NBA Daily Player Props
shaps17
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#51
Posted: 11/10/2012 5:55:27 AM
Mayo under 20.5 Pts (-115)
T. Parker over 14.5 Pts (-115)
Kidd-Gilcrest under 10.5 Pts (-115)
B. Roy under 10 Pts (-115)
Kirilenko under 12.5 Pts (-115)
D. Howard over 21.5 Pts (-125)  5 units


Unfortunately Dwight decided to take the night off.  It happens.  Looking forward to a profitable today tomorrow.

2-4 today

YTD 25-11
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#52
Posted: 11/10/2012 4:00:41 PM
Rough first day of tailing but your record speaks for itself. Looking forward to today's plays 
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shaps17
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#53
Posted: 11/10/2012 4:32:39 PM
Ariza under 8.5 Pts (-115)

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#54
Posted: 11/10/2012 5:47:26 PM
Kaman over 12.5 Pts (-120)
A.J. Price under 12.5 Pts (-140)
Favors under 14.5 Pts & behind (-140)

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#55
Posted: 11/10/2012 6:02:55 PM
Lets get it Shaps!! Rebound night 
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#56
Posted: 11/10/2012 6:45:05 PM
Price and Ariza are scary since their starters but I'm pounding Kaman, Bet of the night there. Like Favors too 
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shaps17
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#57
Posted: 11/11/2012 6:19:14 AM
Ariza under 8.5 Pts (-115)
Kaman over 12.5 Pts (-120)
A.J. Price under 12.5 Pts (-140)
Favors under 14.5 Pts & behind (-140)

Today 3-1

YTD 28-12
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shaps17
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#58
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:29:22 PM
G. Davis over 14 Pts (-140)
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#59
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:28:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

G. Davis over 14 Pts (-140)


Man I was leaning towards this too, wish I saw it earlier.
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shaps17
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#60
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:42:21 PM
Wade under 22.5 Pts (125)
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#61
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:47:58 PM
G. Davis over 14 Pts (-140) 
Wade under 22.5 Pts (125)


Today 2-0

YTD 30-12
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#62
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:20:00 PM
A. Jefferson over 16.5 Pts (-125)
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#63
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:22:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

A. Jefferson over 16.5 Pts (-125)


Do you like this because Mo Williams might be out and he will have more pressure or because Raptors are missing Fields and Lowry?
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#64
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:53:57 PM
Hes got a favorable matchup against that Raptors center.  Not crazy about the 16.5 line which is why its only a 1 unit play
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#65
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:55:28 PM
Adding:

Lebron over 23.5 Pts (-115)
Aldridge (-2.5 Pts & Reb) over Horford (-155)
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#66
Posted: 11/12/2012 10:42:47 PM
When ur hot, ur hot. Keep up the great capping shaps 
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#67
Posted: 11/12/2012 10:44:41 PM
 30 -12 props   
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shaps17
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#68
Posted: 11/13/2012 1:15:09 AM
A. Jefferson over 16.5 Pts (-125)
Lebron over 23.5 Pts (-115)
Aldridge (-2.5 Pts & Reb) over Horford (-155)


Today 2-1
 
YTD 32-13
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#69
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:27:56 AM
keep it rollin man. I had Pierce under 20.5 tonight. checked his last 8 vs the Bulls and his average was less than 15ppg. I can only assume Deng gives him trouble with his length.

would you mind sharing your methods in what you look for in possible plays?

personally I look to bet players under when they face a really good defender or solid defensive team.

how many games/seasons  do you look at when researching stats for a player? ? what do you do on back to back games when applying that to which way to bet?or 3/4 games in one night

hope you dont mind the questions. BOL
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#70
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:14:24 PM
What are your thoughts on the T.Parker prop bet? 18.5 pts under? 
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shaps17
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#71
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:28:53 PM
Like you said, the first thing is to look for under against a strong defender/defense and overs against a weak defender/defense.  Thats the foundation to start from.  Then look at the teams style, if they are uptempo team, then that's a plus for the over.  If they are a slow tempo team, thats a plus for the under.    

I like to play the under more usually because a good defender is much more consistent than a good scorer.  Such as in poker, given two players with similar skill set, the one with position(acts last) has the advantage because he has the luxury of getting to see what the opponent does first.  And if that player is paying attention to his opponents tendencies then he can act aggressive/passive accordingly to limit his opponents chances to succeed.  Same on the bball court, if I have studied my opponent and I am in tune with his strengths/weaknesses, then I can react to every move he makes with a counter move to put as much pressure on him, limit the number of moves he can make and make him as uncomfortable as possible so that his decision making will be hindered.  

Also, I look at that players box score over the last week or two to get a feel for his trends.  Look at injuries, minutes played, etc etc etc.

And last but not least is too look for good lines and recognize bad ones.  Many times, the bookies have taken into consideration the favorable matchups and the line reflects that so there isnt much advantage to betting that line.  And sometimes there are inflated lines where it would take a perfect scenario of things to occur for that player to succeed. 

Usually the only time I will bet big on a prop bet is when most if not all of these factors are in my favor.  The higher the probability of success, the more I will be willing to risk.    

Hope this helps guide you and anybody else interested in the right direction.  
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#72
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:15:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SirCrayon:

What are your thoughts on the T.Parker prop bet? 18.5 pts under? 


All I see is 15.5 for Parker but anyways, I watch alot of Lakers games and my #1 rule is too never ever bet the under on a quick pg when they play Lakers  
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#73
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:20:16 PM
ahh well it was -130, now -150 lol i guess in your books its 15.5 with a little better return
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#74
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:34:06 PM
DeRozan under 19 Pts (-130)  5 unit
Dwight over 30.5 Pts & Reb (+105)  3 unit
Carmelo over 25.5 Pts (-115) 1 unit
Lillard over 17 Pts (-115) 1 unit


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shaps17
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#75
Posted: 11/13/2012 6:31:48 PM
missed some value on DeRozan, hes down to -105 right now.  Love this spot to fade him
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