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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 2012-13 NBA Daily Player Props
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#351
Posted: 12/19/2012 7:19:58 PM
damn my book closed the Knicks game shaps.

with you on the others. BOL!
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shaps17
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#352
Posted: 12/20/2012 12:09:43 AM
Deron Williams -2.5 Pts+Ast over Felton (-125)   3 units
Deron Williams over 7.5 Ast (-115)
Monta Ellis under 18.5 Pts (-105)   3 units
Steph Curry over 20.5 Pts (-115)
Durant over 26.5 Pts (-115)

YTD 97-49


Who made some $ with me tonight?

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#353
Posted: 12/20/2012 12:12:59 AM
Damn bro I wish we were friends or neighbors because what you know about NBA props is just sick.

Thx for the 3-0 night, didn't even have to sweat them.

What a night for Ellis, Conley and Allen really mind fuk..d him. They have to be 2 of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

At one point both guards for the Bucks were 0-6.


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#354
Posted: 12/20/2012 12:16:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

j crawford over 4.5 -115 in the first q

crawford over 17.5 -125


felt like this was GOLD with him starting, although I didn't win by a HUGE margin like your pics.
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#355
Posted: 12/20/2012 1:21:43 AM
Good work and thanks sharing your knowledge
. From today going, l will fellow your thread.
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shaps17
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#356
Posted: 12/20/2012 1:44:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

Damn bro I wish we were friends or neighbors because what you know about NBA props is just sick.

Thx for the 3-0 night, didn't even have to sweat them.

What a night for Ellis, Conley and Allen really mind fuk..d him. They have to be 2 of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

At one point both guards for the Bucks were 0-6.



Your welcome Bogey.

Tony Allen is by far the most under rated defender in the league, he never gets talked about but if you watch him he's the best at taking away his opponents strengths and making them as uncomfortable as he can.  

It was because of him and James Posey that my Kobe got embarassed in the 2008 Finals.  If your a fan of defense like me and you want to watch some of the best team defense on the perimeter in this generation, watch that series again.

A good defender is not about who gets the most steals or blocks, its all about who can keep their opponent to the lowest score possible.  

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#357
Posted: 12/20/2012 2:21:58 AM
do u know of any websites that track or rate NBA players? I found this awhile back but  I am not sure if I am getting the best INFORMATION possible.

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#Mike-Conley-vs-Tony-Parker|201144,2225;year=201112;season=r


I prefer betting under player prop totals as well. One reason is most of the time if I wait close to tip off I can get + odds on the star players under his total.
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#358
Posted: 12/20/2012 2:25:48 AM
if you have the time look at the disparity of when Conley vs Parker when Conley is on the floor and when he is off. It is INSANE!

The ppg and fg% difference. LOL!
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shaps17
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#359
Posted: 12/20/2012 3:59:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

do u know of any websites that track or rate NBA players? I found this awhile back but  I am not sure if I am getting the best INFORMATION possible.

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#Mike-Conley-vs-Tony-Parker|201144,2225;year=201112;season=r


I prefer betting under player prop totals as well. One reason is most of the time if I wait close to tip off I can get + odds on the star players under his total.

That is a huge disparity, not only is Conley a defensive stud but it looks like his backup last year was awful at D.  Letting him shoot 100% fg over 13 attempts in just 19 minutes!  But you cant just follow that stat because last month Tony dropped 30pts on him on 50%+ shooting and Conley was on him for all but 2 min of the game.  The one on one matchups are a big factor but there are alot of other things to factor in as well.   

When I watch an nba game, I dont just look at the player who has the ball.  I look at everything going on and try to find some things that stand out that give that player or team an edge and analyze it.  Its like when you see people watching a tennis match, their heads or eyes are constantly going back and forth following the ball.  Just looking at the results.  But if your trying to learn, you should be focused on one player only and analyzing their game.  

What Im trying to say is that the best way to go about this is not to just look for a website with the results of previous matchups (although it would be a nice tool to have) and make your bets based mainly on that.  

I check box scores constantly and look at the split stats on each player but Ive also watched alot of games and read lots of articles too.  It takes alot of my time and energy up.  
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#360
Posted: 12/20/2012 5:13:06 AM
tell me about it, most weeks I put in 40-50 hours a week studying stats and reading+taking notes.

the sad part is I hardly ever actually watch the games LIVE because I am too busy on the computer or cell trying to catch one of my outlets posting a bad line, or searching for some angle.

once in awhile I will watch one of the late Lakers games if all of the other games have gone off.


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#361
Posted: 12/20/2012 5:22:52 AM
I have been trying to find a site rating players defense using the DRtg method. Have you read about this formula? It seems to have the least amount of holes and has been called one of the best ways to rate a players D.

off topic but i have a question, say you found a place  than routinely posts inflated favs by 1-2 points in NCAA and NBA, would you blindly bet these at -110?

9 days in and so far I have had some success just doing the 1.5 and 2's and even hit a middles on 1 of the 2's this week. -4.5 and +6.5. i was heavy on the bad line of +6.5
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#362
Posted: 12/20/2012 9:35:36 AM
shaps: you are a terrifically talented capper...ty for sharing
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#363
Posted: 12/20/2012 4:53:00 PM
bol
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shaps17
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#364
Posted: 12/20/2012 7:07:57 PM
Lebron over 15 Reb+Ast (-130)
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#365
Posted: 12/20/2012 7:15:54 PM
Smile Shaps...you are on Candid Camera.

5D pops Lebron Over 15 from -130 to -160 I believe after your posting.

Just saying...

Can't you write it in secret code?


bol all
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#366
Posted: 12/20/2012 9:53:20 PM
I didn't post it and I do not keep a record of my picks on here but with Martin out this play was my pick of the night.


STRAIGHT BET
[83711] TOTAL o21½-150
(R. WESTBROOK (OKL) PTS vrs R. WESTBROOK (OKL) PTS)
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bullmoose
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#367
Posted: 12/20/2012 11:21:39 PM
nice play on lebron, but he has to get 16 soon as he is not going to play the 4th period
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#368
Posted: 12/20/2012 11:49:40 PM
Not good. Would have hit easy if Dallas didn't suck.
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shaps17
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#369
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:33:26 AM
hate to get robbed of a good pick because of a blowout 
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shaps17
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#370
Posted: 12/21/2012 5:39:53 PM
Carmelo under 7.5 Reb (-140)  3 units
Mayo under 20.5 Pts (-115)
D. Lee over 32.5 Pts + Reb (-115)
G. Vasquez over 8 Ast (-130)
Z. Randolph over 30 Pts+Reb (-115)
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#371
Posted: 12/21/2012 5:54:38 PM
I like Kemba Walkers over 20.5 any thoughts probably going to do 2u on it
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#372
Posted: 12/21/2012 6:02:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

Carmelo under 7.5 Reb (-140)  3 units
Mayo under 20.5 Pts (-115)
D. Lee over 32.5 Pts + Reb (-115)
G. Vasquez over 8 Ast (-130)
Z. Randolph over 30 Pts+Reb (-115)

On the other side of you with that O.J. Mayo play.  Good luck...
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shaps17
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#373
Posted: 12/21/2012 6:51:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Synukal:

I like Kemba Walkers over 20.5 any thoughts probably going to do 2u on it

Hes on fire but the line is a bit inflated because of it and Steph Curry is not a bad defender 
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shaps17
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#374
Posted: 12/21/2012 7:07:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GuardiaDeMieux:


On the other side of you with that O.J. Mayo play.  Good luck...

He should be extra motivated tonight against the team that kept his offensive talents limited for the past couple years.  But I think something similar to what happened to Harden return @ OKC might be likely.  We'll see who's right by the end of the night
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#375
Posted: 12/21/2012 7:18:16 PM
Anthony has only had more than 7 rebounds 6 times this year and also hasn't had more than 6 rebounds in a single game the last 11. Any thoughts as to why the line is offering the hook?  Anyway GL tonight but I doubt you will need it  
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