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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Mike Money's NBA Watering Hole 2012-2013
mikesomoney send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 11/14/2012 11:48:22 AM
@alecboyh wish u the best!
@football9 no problem I hope I can help. Thank you for your kind words.

I have a weird feeling about tonight. No official plays but my leans:
-Celtics -5.5; I think this is more of a play against Utah on the road. Now that they got that monkey off their back (first road win) I'm not sure how they will respond. I think the matchups favor celtics in the back court and Utah in the front slightly. I may fire on this one for a unit.
-Memphis +5 puzzles me. I am high on value for the grizzlies but I think this line is oddly set up for them to be +5 against an OKC team that has been coming up short. I think Memphis wins outright all things fair, but I'm a little skeptical Vegas knows something here.
Without skepticism I'd be on Memphis in a heartbeat.
- Pistons +7.5; this team is not that good, sure. But it depends what day you catch them. Some days they hustle and play well and other days its just whatever. I place them in the same likings as those low/mid tier teams who can score and hustle but may lose a game in the first 5 or last 5 minutes. I actually think pistons have a shot at winning here and they match up very well to the 76er players. I think it would come down to the bench and I question if the pistons bench can keep up with nick young.
- ATL +1; I think the matchups for these two teams fair well here with a slight edge to atlanta's bench (Louis Williams is a pure scorer). It would be an interesting front court match up where I'd expect horford to dominate with josh slashing. I personally value jack more then curry because I think he plays with more experience (less turnovers and nice decisions) albeit he is not as "wet" as curry. I think ATL wins this game with Bogut and rush out.
- Bulls -2.5; another weird line. I think suns match up well but they are like the pistons /warriors/kings/TB where I am not sure how consistent they will play today. I would lean bulls but their offense has been sluggish lately and suns have inconsistent firepower.

Some days it take NO bet to stay ahead and not regress. I know its hard to stay away from action, but i Hope this helps. With that said, I will let you all know if i feel more strongly about a play as they day progresses.

Would love to hear your guys thoughts.

BOL
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#77
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:59:42 PM

For me, these look like some of the hardest games to call.

I'm thinking of rolling with the Bucks, Mavs and maybe Houston.

BOL  

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#78
Posted: 11/14/2012 2:22:52 PM
Messy I think I haven't watched bucks enough. Mavs have a huge line to cover and NO has had some time to prep.

BOL to you and thank you for your input!
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alecboyh
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#79
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:05:29 PM
noplays today???
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#80
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:34:54 PM
@alexboyh I was stuck in meetings I apologize. I didn't make a play but I felt strong about pistons. All things fair I like grizzlies but I think tonight may get some shadyness with that line. Ill be attending the clippers game so I don't want to compromise my experience o that game.

I wish you the BOL!
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#81
Posted: 11/14/2012 9:43:57 PM
My leans hitting!
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alecboyh
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#82
Posted: 11/15/2012 1:45:11 PM
SO BAD I COULDNT SEE THEM EARLY ... WILL WAIT FOR UR PLAYS ...
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#83
Posted: 11/15/2012 6:26:33 PM
No plays locked in. However, I lean:

Nets heavy if rondo isn't playing. Under looks good but nets like to run up the score and jack 3s even if its 2 min left with a nice lead.

Over in the Heat game. The value is definitely with the heat despite the road trip and coming in late etc. The line makes us to believe its a last second possession game and all heat has to do is miss a 3 for tie/win which is keeping me away. But gun to my head I take heat with spread. I think the over is the better play here.
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mlesnet
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#84
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:02:42 PM
what if rondo is playing? do you lean boston then?
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#85
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:38:01 PM
If rondo plays I would stay away and lean under. He makes that big of a difference for that team.
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#86
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:49:17 PM
BOL guys 
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#87
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:33:41 PM
1st lean hit let's get it heat!

Reminder to myself to play my leans more but I'm too cautious.
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#88
Posted: 11/16/2012 7:00:50 PM
No Time to write up:

Parlay OKC ML, Grizzlies ML, and Hawks ML 1 Unit to win 2.5 units.

Locking in a future bet because I think the value will drop if Grizz win tonight.

Championship: Heat vs Grizzlies
1 Unit to win 31.25 units
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#89
Posted: 11/17/2012 12:37:18 AM
Lead you to the promise land!

YTD: 18-5-0
2 Unit: 4-1
1 Unit: 13-2
< 1 Unit: 1-2
Net Profit: $1,910 (+19.1 units)

Cashed on the 1 Unit parlay grizz/okc/hawks ML

FUTURE BET: Heat vs Grizzlies NBA Championship
1 Unit to win 31.25 Units

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Frank the Bank
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#90
Posted: 11/17/2012 12:50:30 AM
Time to get on board with you...you are sharp my friend
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#91
Posted: 11/17/2012 1:10:08 AM
@Frank_the_Bank I just want to test my analysis in a controlled, methodical way while helping you guys along the way. As you can see, I am very conservative. My parlay couldve paid 6:1 if i took spread but I decided to air with caution and take ML. Just as much as I want to win, I definitely for sure dont want to lose. So I'd rather win slowly then lose a lot.

BOL To all your future endeavors.
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#92
Posted: 11/17/2012 1:47:41 AM
Like your outlook, some players just have way too many games a day, not saying there arent great cappers that play a bunch of games a day but when you can narrow it down you have a better shot..Being conservative when you wanna just fire away on a lot of games takes discipline..and what wins games wether your betting or actually playing the game? DISCIPLINE  Good work will be coming back to see how your doing, and may start tailing a couple, bol bud 
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#93
Posted: 11/17/2012 1:54:11 AM
@ Jerzeyboy I appreciate the kind words! Yeah...I agree I guess it depends on where you are in life. I personally am not rich, but I work hard and I view the value of a dollar as important to not just throw around and hope it'll grow.  There are definitely a lot of good cappers out there, but playing many games causes the potential to lose or win a lot. If I lose a game or two, I dont want to go beyond that and would rather call it a day/week/however long it takes instead of trying to chase.

I wish you great health and money my friend!
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#94
Posted: 11/18/2012 7:44:54 PM
1 unit TrailBlazers PK
Chicago has some serious offense issues. Boozer needs to get traded and letting go of John Lucas has done them no good. My only worry from making this a bigger play is trailblazers lackluster bench.

May play on rockets +7/ML
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#95
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:51:45 PM
YTD: 19-5-0
2 Unit: 4-1
1 Unit: 14-2
< 1 Unit: 1-2
Net Profit: $2,910 (+20.1 units)

Cashes on Portland.

Lean bobcats and magic tomorrow so far but not all lines are up yet.
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#96
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:53:11 PM
Sigh Net Profit $2,010***
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alecboyh
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#97
Posted: 11/19/2012 4:10:03 PM
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#98
Posted: 11/19/2012 4:45:38 PM
i like it 
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#99
Posted: 11/19/2012 6:17:06 PM
YTD: 19-5-0
2 Unit: 4-1
1 Unit: 14-2
< 1 Unit: 1-2
Net Profit: $2,010 (+20.1 units)
Pending Wager(s): 1 Unit to win 31.25 Units Grizzlies vs Heat NBA Championship
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Unit Pacers ML -150 (to win .67 Units)

Value play here...I dont feel like getting screwed by any late game free throws or etc. While the Pacers are offensively struggling without Granger, I do not necessarily think they should be categorized a bottom feeder team like the Wizards. The Wizards are hungry for their first W, but I question their consistency down the stretch where they have let leads pass them by. I understand the first game was close at Pacers, but I expect Vogel to be the better coach and make the proper adjustments in helping them get an easier W. David West, Hibbert, George...its time to put a spanking on a team-come on now!

1 Unit on Bobcats +5
This is a tricky game, but I will side with the team that is playing aggressive and hustling at home. I love the bobcats to be honest, I think they have a great amount of value especially with public perception as the worst team because of last season. The matchups here are almost even, but I think if Gordon and Sessions get it going off the bench they will be able to possibly win SU. Just be wary of late game turnovers.




I am leaning HEAVY on Magic, but will only fire if Reddick plays and stays within 9 points. I also lean Clipps ML and Denver +7. Both teams are capable and have something to prove against the elites. It would require a big day from all of the clipps, especially Crawford off the bench; and a big day from McGee/Faried for Denver (please no koufos and brewer).

Look Ahead
: Lakers ML @ Grizzlies...I hate the Lakers and I am from Los Angeles, but I think they come out proving why they should be championship contenders.
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#100
Posted: 11/19/2012 6:22:53 PM
Correction, Bobcats are at +5.5*
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