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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: How to make money betting the NBA
Mikado send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Mikado
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#1
Posted: 10/7/2012 4:08:24 PM
I thought I had a thread around here somewhere about this, but it is probably time to create a new one anyways.  This new thread will be detailing strategies and decision-making process when it comes to capping the NBA. This thread can be all inclusive and anybody can add their opinion towards it. The main goal of this thread is to help those in the community develop better decision-making skills through empowering themselves with knowledge. However we must realize that sometimes knowing too much can often work against us. Everybody cannot realistically make money betting sports, what matters is actually learning something from each win/loss you encounter in order to gain experience. It is learning from these experiences over time is what will develop you in to a successful gambler. If you are operating your gambling based on bias and favorites... you must stop now. This not only means you are partial to betting a certain side, but can also lead to a serious gambling addiction where you are chasing losses like a heroin addict chasing a pink dragon. 

First off. Regardless of your history betting the NBA, cut all of your losses. Set limits for this upcoming season before you begin. If you start with 1000, don't go over that and dig in deeper. Make plays accordingly and don't use up more than 5% of your bankroll on a given play. If you are doing well over time, do with math and bump your bets up. Likewise if you are in a slump, retract the numbers a bit. Make single-play bets. Do not do parlays hoping for a big payoff. This is a marathon not a race. If you are looking to get rich quick - do not look here. This is a very slow and methodical way to make money - but it does work as long as the player is patient.

It is always important when making a play to consider others. Some look at betting percentages (which may or may not be accurate). However one of the best ways to get a good evaluation of your play is talk to another player who has no emotional or monetary stake in the game. This way they can give you their best opinion while trying not to exert bias. 

One of the key things I see that is wrong in the betting community is the punishment of others because of their decisions. We all see it in different forms whether it is bragging or using the hindsight bias to say I knew all along. You CANNOT reward the outcomes of situations based on win/loss. It was actually the process leading up to that outcome such as they got beat badly in transition and played poorly in the paint. By using this - you can actually reward your decision making because you were right - it just happened to end up in a loss that most of the time would not occur. After a win/loss try to go back to why you initially made that play and see if the results match up with the hypothesis. 

The only thing else I got to say at this moment is NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH ONE TEAM. Sure teams can go on streaks (Spurs) but they may come to an abrupt end (Thunder) and may be shaky ATS during that time as well. Do not believe in streaks and trends (temporary) - go with the patterns (which are permanent) 


Good Luck to everybody in the Association this season!
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#2
Posted: 10/7/2012 8:07:56 PM
Nice thread, agree with your points here Mikado. Wish you a lovely season
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QuentinT send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#3
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:41:11 AM
Mikado, do you have some personal stats about yours win/loss last NBA seasons?
I am just searching for best cappers here at forum...
tnx. for reply
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#4
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:59:34 AM
Mikado
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#5
Posted: 10/8/2012 11:04:40 AM
One of my favorite ways of improving my ability to get a good read on a game and bet on the NBA is talking to others here on the forum. The NBA forum is really, in my mind, one of the best forums here on this website (I have a similar amount of respect for college hoops and soccer, but NBA is king for me). There are plenty of posters who post regularly here who are great resources for examining games. From guys like mtbaker, Prof1, nbafan, Mikado, Makaveli (if he ever comes back -- boy do I miss that guy), 3Ball, and countless others, the NBA betting community is strong here. For me, I will rarely tail someone blind on an NBA game, but if Mikado has an approach or angle to a game that I haven't considered that goes against my lean, I'll often sit that one out.

I'd rather not bet a game that I would have won than bet a game that I lose and then kick myself for not taking into account what someone like Mikado said.

Another thing: the NBA is a rhythm game, I wholeheartedly believe that. If you've played the game and understand the nuances and intricacies of the game, that's half the battle. The NBA is also one of those sports where psychology and motivation and human factors is hugely important.

This should be a really fun thread, I am super-excited about the NBA coming back this year.


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#6
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:42:42 PM
Mikado, im not sure but we may have had some regretful words in the past.regardless, i just wanted to say that this thread is a great idea and i have much respect for you in this sport.i'm looking forward to a FULL NBA season and hoping to have more discussions with you on this years' games. BOL on the season 
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#7
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:23:13 PM
Great Stuff. I agree with all and couldnt have put it in words any better. Hopefully people pay attention.
GL this season.
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#8
Posted: 10/8/2012 5:13:02 PM
Have a great year!
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#9
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:06:47 PM
Yahoo Sports Team Report
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kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:18:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Yahoo Sports Team Report


Hoopshype rumors page

TrueHoop
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#11
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:33:07 PM
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#12
Posted: 10/9/2012 3:37:11 PM
Love it. 
I stopped in different forums, but nba is the best one IMO.  Seems like the posters in here don't put up with the bravado that is the norm everywhere else.

We all have our strategies to make $ in NBA, but for me it is still watching public percentages, catching fishy lines, illuminating motivational angles, and the good old ref angle.  
To remain disciplined, I have a set of rules that I follow as closely as possible.  

Biggest issue, getting tired of the grind and taking half the season off every year. 

Good luck this year everyone
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#13
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:50:31 PM

thumbs up on the thread.. i just joined this site within a month and i've been more on the nfl,college, and mlb.. but i have notice the garbage talking which in my eyes don't make sense.. we are not betting against eachother, casinos and bookies all these ppl make money because why???THEY STICK TOGETHER!!! everyone i've seen or even when i post a thread or comment on one. You always get the o he's a rookie good luck or this or that.. I would like to add you as a friend mikado,

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#14
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:24:19 PM
Oh the fLakers should be fun this year, guys.  They are going to be double digit favs just about every time at home.  I definitely look to make sum money fading the fLakers this season.  2 spots that I am keying on right now is when the Timberwolves roll into Staples... give me the pts

And at the end of their longest road trip this year. I haven't looked yet but it'll be a team like Cleveland or Washington... They'll be laying 12 pts or so...

I can hardly wait for a FULL NBA season fellas.

Also, I'll be watching the Grizzlies closely cause when they play Boston, I'll probably be on the Grizz, again.
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#15
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:36:30 PM
Your write up not helpfull ! anway thank you
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CrazyMilkMan
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#16
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:36:11 PM
One thing that has worked for me is to follow a certain team. I've been following my Cats and seem to have a lt of success betting on their games. Othet than what kap just said, familiarity with one team is gold in the NBA. It's easier to run simulations in your mind when you pit one team you are closely following against another team. This leads me to my other point which is to keep your plays as little as possible. One a day is great. NBA betting is a marathon.
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#17
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:04:16 AM
@Mikado

If you dont mind, what are your stats from the past few years? 

Great thread
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:40:56 PM
your the man mikado  
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alekomtz
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#19
Posted: 10/12/2012 9:01:44 AM
Bol this year!
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#20
Posted: 10/12/2012 10:50:24 AM
the best advice i can give is....try to find situational bets and bet em hard.

One or two bets a night max. Sometimes no bets ( action bets are a big NO-NO!!! )


BOL to all in the upcoming season 
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#21
Posted: 10/12/2012 2:54:05 PM

Mikado. Wise words.  i do OK in NBA, hopefully I can get some pointers from you.  Trying to find ATS stats for last yr any suggestions.

BOL in the NBA season

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#22
Posted: 10/29/2012 7:13:07 PM
Thanks for the love everybody.  I wish everybody has a winning season (although not possible) - however there are definitely methods out there to improve our odds for success. 

Great posts everybody.  I wish I could be around on a more regular basis and converse more in the NBA forum, but realistically that is not possible for me.  I'll try to drop by when I have some free time and let people know what's on my mind.  I do truly believe that this NBA forum in particular is the most interconnected group on Covers.  Sometimes it gets lost that we are all here to help each other and it really becomes difficult when we are on opposite sides.  One thing I will leave everybody with today is the notion that only the only successful bettors pick their plays themselves without letting one opinion sway their decision.  When you make a bet, do not just take your side into account - make sure you read the other side just as well if not better than your initial thought.  To truly be successful, it is not about winning a large number of bets - it is more so making sound quality bets when they present themselves.  Think more over the long-term instead of the present.  Looking weeks ahead into the NBA schedule can reveal some nice spots to bet.  If you have the urge to bet everyday then you probably are not thinking into the future much.

There is a very fine line between being a compulsive gambler and a successful investor; and the key is patience. 
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#23
Posted: 10/29/2012 7:41:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

the best advice i can give is....try to find situational bets and bet em hard.

One or two bets a night max. Sometimes no bets ( action bets are a big NO-NO!!! )


BOL to all in the upcoming season 
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#24
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:30:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan:

One thing that has worked for me is to follow a certain team. I've been following my Cats and seem to have a lt of success betting on their games. Othet than what kap just said, familiarity with one team is gold in the NBA. It's easier to run simulations in your mind when you pit one team you are closely following against another team. This leads me to my other point which is to keep your plays as little as possible. One a day is great. NBA betting is a marathon.


I do like the idea of following one or two teams in theory, I understand why it could look appealing... but to me it would be too tough to run those simulations in your mind if you arent as familiar with the tendencies or talent of whoever they are playing. I think the NBA has to be a league where you know every team to be successful. Nothing wrong with being a fan of a team or having a "favorite" team (mine being Phoenix and Minnesota, ever since a young age despite coming up in California), but to really take advantage of the matchups you gotta know all the teams IMO. And I've seen you post long enough CMM to know that you do know all the teams very well


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#25
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:33:40 PM
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