Posted: 10/5/2012 5:18:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ichiyuri:
Not bad last Wednesday. Hit the over in Petron/RoS game, because Joseph Yeo decided to make a lay-up with about 8 seconds to go. Air 21 kept the game close to cover the handicap, but failed to score when they needed so my over bet hit the floor.
On to today's games, and again, I will be using MSW lines.
-So Meralco's biggest acquisition in the off season was Ronjay Buenafe, another wing player who is a ballhog and shoots a lot of 3s. I guess they are not contented with having 3 ballhogs out there (Cardona, Mercado, Macapagal). And their biggest loss? No more Asi T. So this once tough, physical team had been reduced to bits, and their height/strength down low is history. TnT failed to reach the finals last conference after 5 consecutive appearances, and that is a good thing for this banged up team. Majority of the players are well rested, except for those who played for the National Team (Fonacier, de Ocampo, Dillinger). Well it doesn't really matter because there's but 1 player that I needed to step up today and that is Jason Castro. Add to the fact that the other players are well rested, TnT will start this season with a bang and defend their All-Filipino title.
-So who's going to score for Meralco once their Mercado-Cardona tandem gets shut down? Although this team is one of (if not) the best in transition points last year, a big factor when doing that quick attack is by getting the defensive rebound. Without Taulava, Meralco will most likely do the team-rebounding style, wherein their bigmen will box out, and their guards to get the rebounds. That will reduce the opportunity of quick points, and will result to a slower tempo game. They will also need to take and make a lot of 3s because they have no post player which will be double-teamed. It will always be pick-and-roll, with Mercado shooting a jumpshot (99% brick) or driving to the basket for a layup (50% brick) or kickout to 3s. TnT thrives in whatever kind of game (fast or slow) so they don't really care. They just want to score more than the opponent.
-The Aces had faced their former coach 4 times last year, 3 of which failed to reach 170. One game went to OT, and had a total of 181 (73-all during regulation). They lose LA but replaced him with spunky JV Casio. He's the only one who is my concern on the under because for sure he will try to push the ball a lot, unlike LA's walk-the-ball style of play. They also get Hontiveros who is a deadly shooter when he's on. SanMig didn't really make any huge change except for losing Josh Urbiztondo, who happens to be their starting (best) PG. He can make 3s, push the ball, and be energetic. Those are 3 factors the other 3 PGs (Barroca/Villanueva/Pacana) don't have, and you expect SanMig to score in the 90s? Don't be surprised if the game is played really slow, with the total in the 160s.
My official plays will be:
I am leaning towards ALASKA+4.5 but will not play that. I've heard a couple players won't be available in SanMig line-up (Ping, JDV) so I won't risk any bets on side plays, but the under will stick.