prop bet that appears to be free $$$$$$$$

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: prop bet that appears to be free $$$$$$$$
pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 12:59:57 AM

Miami Heat +2 games in series -280

ya you have to lay a ton of juice, but this is a 2-3-2 format, i do not see how okc even at their best would win this series in 5 games, miami might steal 1 in okc, and even if they dont, miami should win 2 of 3 at home, making this at worse a push if okc wins in 6 games. im not saying this bet for sure will win cause i think it possible okc wins the series in 6, but i think it more than likely it will win, because i ONLY SEE 2 OUTCOMES HERE I WIN THIS BET OR OKC WINS SERIES IN 6 AND I PUSH,

okc sweep miami? i highly doubt it, most nba finals are not sweeps dont see it here with 2 very good teams

and in 5 games okc, meaning they win atleast 2 of 3 in miami and both at home i dont see that either. i pounded this

pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:01:09 AM
i was gonna take miami +1.5 games at first for -140 but then i worry about that game 6 in okc if okc is up 3-2 going back to okc, so i think it a safer much safer infact with the +2 lay twice the juice but i think it about 10x more likely to not have to sweat +2 than +1.5 and that is worth it for only 2x more juice
BIGfnPOO PM BIGfnPOO
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:18:18 AM
buy it back  okc in 5
pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:20:29 AM
why do you like okc in 5? they needed 6 to beat lakers and san antonio, and miami is better than those teams, i dont see how the would win in 5
pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:20:43 AM
on paper this series is a coinflip
esplanade PM esplanade
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:28:02 AM
If you look at it from the flip side, they have to win the series or force game 7 for you to win. I'm not sure it sounds so enticing from that perspective.
pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:41:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by esplanade:

If you look at it from the flip side, they have to win the series or force game 7 for you to win. I'm not sure it sounds so enticing from that perspective.

i know but then look at it on the other side, only way i lose this bet is if okc wins a sweep, or in 5 games

to think okc sweeps i think is pretty crazy, and in 5 games i just think is unlikely with the 2-3-2 format. 2-3-2 is a huge difference compared to 2-2-1-1-1 especialy in nba where home court is huge. both games this year were fairly competitive bot hteams are 5-5 against each other last 10 games in the last 3 or 4 years. i think this is a good series, i think it goes atleast 6 or 7 games each way.

i know what your saying but im saying the other flip side of what you are talking about i still fancy a few times over the side you brought up.

i mean i see like 1 percent chance its a sweep either way. so if okc wins in 5 games, they have to win atleast 2 of 3 in miami and both at home i just dont see it

on paper these teams are very equaly matched.

pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:41:34 AM
if miami wins game 1 the juice on this prop bet will go to like -550 or -600 ish
pj702 PM pj702
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Posted: 6/12/2012 1:48:08 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

buy it back  okc in 5

that is your prediction? i will say miami win the series in 7 games

proguy747 PM proguy747
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Posted: 6/12/2012 10:04:56 AM
you are not very smart.
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