would you hedge this and hope for a middle

Forum: NBA Betting Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: would you hedge this and hope for a middle
tennistudly PM tennistudly
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 987
 
tennistudly
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:36:57 PM
I hit SF in  in the first part of a 2 teamer and have spurs over 202 as the second part risking 620 to win 1391.  Should I try the under 204 for 620 and hope for a middle????
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:41:37 PM
DEPENDS ON YOUR BANKROLL... KNOW WHAT I MEAN YOU KNOW HOW MUCH YOU CAN OR CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE SO PICK..i'D PROBABLY TAKE THE UNDER THAT WAY YOUR GONNA GET PAID SOMETHING... BUT IM NOT A BIG TOTAL'S GUY!!! 
SJSharks99 PM SJSharks99
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 10423
 
SJSharks99
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:43:36 PM
why hedge a 2 teamer? I mean, if we were talking lots of teams sure, but why bother on a 2 teamer? The middle is WAY to close too

If anything, watch the 1st half and gauge whether or not it's looking like an over or under game and either leave it or make a halftime bet


BOL
Iainsc2 PM Iainsc2
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 2174
 
Iainsc2
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:48:14 PM
well you only have 1 point to hit the middle so very unlikely , just leave your bet
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:48:20 PM

KNOW WHAT HDERES WHAT I WOULD DO PROBABLY PLAY THE UNDER FOR 900 BUCK'S IF THE PARLAY HIT'S YOU MAKE LIKE 450 IF THE UNDER HIT'S YOU MAKE LIKE 280..SOMPNE CAN PROBABLY DO THE MATH BETTER BUT I THINK YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT i'M GETTING AT!!!

Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:50:51 PM
ACTUALLY YOUR BEST PAYOUT WOULD BE TO PLAY IT FOR A 1000 BUCK'S IF THE PARLAY HIT'S YOU MAKE 391 AND IF THE UNDER HIT'S YOU MAKE 380. THERE I THINK THAT'S RIGHT! HOPE THAT WAS HELPFUL!!!
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:52:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SJSharks99:

why hedge a 2 teamer? I mean, if we were talking lots of teams sure, but why bother on a 2 teamer? The middle is WAY to close too

If anything, watch the 1st half and gauge whether or not it's looking like an over or under game and either leave it or make a halftime bet


BOL

YOU HEDGE THE WAGER CUZ IT'S GARUNTEED MONEY...HE CAN'T LOSE!!!! KNOW WHAT I MEAN?

tennistudly PM tennistudly
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 987
 
tennistudly
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 5/27/2012 9:22:54 PM
 thanks daywalker - Missed the damn tipoff
SJSharks99 PM SJSharks99
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 10423
 
SJSharks99
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 5/27/2012 9:45:56 PM
Lmao are u kidding me? You start a thread asking if you should hedge a bit bet and then u somehow miss the tip off? Lol
Posted using a mobile device.
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 9:51:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

YOU HEDGE THE WAGER CUZ IT'S GARUNTEED MONEY...HE CAN'T LOSE!!!! KNOW WHAT I MEAN?



Unreal.
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 9:52:14 PM
Hedging 2 team parlays....

Only on covers.
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:23:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



Unreal.

WELL PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME HOW MY ADVICE WAS WRONG? IF THE ODD'S ARE RIGHT THERES NOTHING WRONG WITH HEDGING A 2 TEAM PARLAY..YOU GUY'S IN HERE ...JUS CUZ YOU DON'T LIKE SOMETHING IT'S WRONG...NOW HE LOST ALL HIS MONEY..SO I GUESS THAT WAS THE RIGHT MOVE?????

rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:26:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

WELL PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME HOW MY ADVICE WAS WRONG? IF THE ODD'S ARE RIGHT THERES NOTHING WRONG WITH HEDGING A 2 TEAM PARLAY..YOU GUY'S IN HERE ...JUS CUZ YOU DON'T LIKE SOMETHING IT'S WRONG...NOW HE LOST ALL HIS MONEY..SO I GUESS THAT WAS THE RIGHT MOVE?????



The fact the outcome of this game determines for you whether it's the right or wrong move shows how pointless it would be to explain.

But I will try in the simplest terms I possibly can....

If you are hedging the second leg of a 2 team parlay, you should have placed a straight bet on the first and forgotten the second. Period.

tennistudly PM tennistudly
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 987
 
tennistudly
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:38:36 PM
hey rangers - wtf are u  doing on the site then? u just popping in to see what the dumbasses are doing?  Daywalker - your advice was good.   It turns out I would have been assured a daily profit which is my goal.
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:39:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tennistudly:

hey rangers - wtf are u  doing on the site then? u just popping in to see what the dumbasses are doing?  Daywalker - your advice was good.   It turns out I would have been assured a daily profit which is my goal.


Pretty much.


Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:50:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



The fact the outcome of this game determines for you whether it's the right or wrong move shows how pointless it would be to explain.

But I will try in the simplest terms I possibly can....

If you are hedging the second leg of a 2 team parlay, you should have placed a straight bet on the first and forgotten the second. Period.

\

tHE OUT COME OF THE GAME DETERMINED nothing... mY ADVICE MEANT HE'D GET PAID NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME WAS..AND I'M STILL WAITING FOR YOU TO EXPLAIN HOW GETTING PAID EITHER WAY IS A DUMB MOVE ...

SJSharks99 PM SJSharks99
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 10423
 
SJSharks99
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:53:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tennistudly:

 thanks daywalker - Missed the damn tipoff




Hedging a 2 team parlay is comical, but not as comical as "missing tip off when you wanted to hedge haha"

well played sir
T_Rav1088 PM T_Rav1088
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 847
 
T_Rav1088
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:55:46 PM

He's right though dude...if you're hedging a 2 teamer with that much money and its that important to win SOMETHING, then you shouldn't have bet it for that much, or just placed 2 separate wagers.  You've been here since 2005 man, i'm 23 only been wagering for 5 years and even I KNOW not to hedge a parlay like this.  Anyway, I was a stat minor, so I'll try to break it down as simple as I can.

In a 2 team parlay, assuming standard odds, you have a 25% chance of winning, without getting into individual matchups.  you have a 50/50 chance to win one game, 50/50 chance to win the other.  .5x.5 = 25%.  Simple enough right?  So standard parlay odds are 2.6/1 payouts.  To break even, you need to win 27.7% of your parlays:

take a $10 bet...win it 1 time, lose twice, you make 26 and lose 20 = profit.

BUT, hedging means you're cutting your large payout odds on half, or more.  Assume you're a 50% capper for argument's sake.  1 of every 2 parlays is automatically going to be dead after game 1.  When the game 1 wins, you NEED your odds to stay high or its not even worth the investment.

Look at your own example:  Run it 4 times since in theory there are 4 outcomes, using the guy who moronically types in all caps, his scenario of hedging as our base:

Win G1, lose G2 = 391

Win G1, win G2 = $380

Lose G1, win G2 = -600 (since it doesn't matter, G1 loss means parlay dead)

Lose G1, Lose G2 = -600

Thats an overall result of -$429, over 4 outcomes means a NEGATIVE EV man...If this is your strategy you've lost money before you even placed the wager

rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:57:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

\

tHE OUT COME OF THE GAME DETERMINED nothing... mY ADVICE MEANT HE'D GET PAID NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME WAS..AND I'M STILL WAITING FOR YOU TO EXPLAIN HOW GETTING PAID EITHER WAY IS A DUMB MOVE ...



There is something you may or may not know....

When you place a straight wager, you get paid on a win as well. When this option is chosen, there is no need to hedge the second leg because it does not exist. Hopefully you can figure the rest out for yourself on why this saves you money compared to winning the first leg and hedging. No clues will be given.


rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:58:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by T_Rav1088:

He's right though dude...if you're hedging a 2 teamer with that much money and its that important to win SOMETHING, then you shouldn't have bet it for that much, or just placed 2 separate wagers.  You've been here since 2005 man, i'm 23 only been wagering for 5 years and even I KNOW not to hedge a parlay like this.  Anyway, I was a stat minor, so I'll try to break it down as simple as I can.

In a 2 team parlay, assuming standard odds, you have a 25% chance of winning, without getting into individual matchups.  you have a 50/50 chance to win one game, 50/50 chance to win the other.  .5x.5 = 25%.  Simple enough right?  So standard parlay odds are 2.6/1 payouts.  To break even, you need to win 27.7% of your parlays:

take a $10 bet...win it 1 time, lose twice, you make 26 and lose 20 = profit.

BUT, hedging means you're cutting your large payout odds on half, or more.  Assume you're a 50% capper for argument's sake.  1 of every 2 parlays is automatically going to be dead after game 1.  When the game 1 wins, you NEED your odds to stay high or its not even worth the investment.

Look at your own example:  Run it 4 times since in theory there are 4 outcomes, using the guy who moronically types in all caps, his scenario of hedging as our base:

Win G1, lose G2 = 391

Win G1, win G2 = $380

Lose G1, win G2 = -600 (since it doesn't matter, G1 loss means parlay dead)

Lose G1, Lose G2 = -600

Thats an overall result of -$429, over 4 outcomes means a NEGATIVE EV man...If this is your strategy you've lost money before you even placed the wager



I'm hoping this was copy and pasted because that is one hell of an effort to explain to people who won't understand even if you smacked them in the head with proof. Well said regardless.


Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/28/2012 12:06:45 AM
MORONICALLYY TYPES IN CAP'S...LOL WHO'S THE MORON THE ONE WHO TYPES IN CAPS OR THE ONE WHO COMPLAIN'S ABOUT IT..WHY CAN YOU HEAR IT? IS IT HARDER TO READ? I'M SORRY BUT YOU EXAMPLE ONLY IS RELEVANT BEFORE THE FIRST PART OF HIS PARLAY WIN'S!!!! ONCE SF WON THEN HE'S WAITING ON THE OVER WHICH WOULD PAY HIM 1391MY SUGGESTON IS PUT 1000 ON THE UNDER . if tIF THE PARLAY HIT'S 1000 but makes 391.  BY PUTTING 1000 ON THE UNDER SHOULD THE UNDER COME IN HE LOSES 620 ON THE PARLAY BUT MAKES 1000 ON THE UNDER SO HE WINS380 ..SO EITHER WAY HE CAN'T LOSE... so now once agian who'd the MORAN?
tennistudly PM tennistudly
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 987
 
tennistudly
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 5/28/2012 12:07:10 AM
t rav- love your stats and numbers but i asked a question about 1 friggin parlay i had going with the first leg a winner and a 2 point difference in the 2nd games spread. I do not play parlays daily but I can tell you I should have hedged this one.
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/28/2012 12:09:19 AM

OMG THE PROBLEM WITH BOTH OF YOU DUMBASS'S IS THAT YOUR NOT UNDERSTANDING THAT HE WON THE SF GAME AT 4PM THIS AFTERNOON SO WE ALREADY KNOW THAT PART OF THE PARLAY IS WON.....JESUS CHRIST!!!

Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1269
 
Daywalker331
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/28/2012 12:12:27 AM

TENNISTUDLY I THINK YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I ADVISED ....SORRY YOU DIDN'T GET IT IN ...BUT GLAD TO OFFER MY HELP!!!

rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 17823
 
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 5/28/2012 12:16:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

MORONICALLYY TYPES IN CAP'S...LOL WHO'S THE MORON THE ONE WHO TYPES IN CAPS OR THE ONE WHO COMPLAIN'S ABOUT IT..WHY CAN YOU HEAR IT? IS IT HARDER TO READ? I'M SORRY BUT YOU EXAMPLE ONLY IS RELEVANT BEFORE THE FIRST PART OF HIS PARLAY WIN'S!!!! ONCE SF WON THEN HE'S WAITING ON THE OVER WHICH WOULD PAY HIM 1391MY SUGGESTON IS PUT 1000 ON THE UNDER . if tIF THE PARLAY HIT'S 1000 but makes 391.  BY PUTTING 1000 ON THE UNDER SHOULD THE UNDER COME IN HE LOSES 620 ON THE PARLAY BUT MAKES 1000 ON THE UNDER SO HE WINS380 ..SO EITHER WAY HE CAN'T LOSE... so now once agian who'd the MORAN?


First off, what is a moron? Second off, me and the other educated person in this thread are talking about the STRATEGY involved here.
Forum: NBA Betting Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.