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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Some thoughts on the Hawks/Celtics matchup tonight.
FlamingoBarnes send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:52:17 PM

-I think the biggest factor will be Smith and Horford's legs vs Pierce's legs.  Smith and Pierce are clearly dealing with nagging leg injuries right now and are not themselves.  Horford played lights out on Tuesday but played 41 minutes.  Will his body be fully recovered by tonight?  I think the Hawks have a solid chance at the cover and win if Horford is able to play as strong as he did in game 5.  Celtics probably cover if his legs aren't fully recovered. 

-Celtics have no answer for Smith and Horford.  Garnett can guard one of the two but not both.  Bass got abused in game 5 and finished with a +/- of -22.  Hollins seemed to do a better job on defense than Bass. 

-Horford being back opens up the 3 pt shot for the Hawks backcourt.  The Celtics were able to hedge out and play the 3 pt line tight in the first 4 games because Collins and Dampier are non-existent on offense. They have to stay in tight on Horford and it showed in game 5. 

-The Hawks shot 21/82 (26%) from 3 in the first 4 games and 7/16 (44%) in game 5.  The Hawks were 5th in the league in 3 pt % for the regular season at 37%. 

-Larry Drew must stick with Kirk Hinrich over Willie Green.  Hinrich was 3/4 with 7 points in the 7 minutes of PT that he had in the 1st half of game 5.  Even with his solid play, Larry Drew decides to play Willie Green over Hinrich for the 7 minute rotation in the 2nd half.  Willie contributed 0 points and 1 rebound with a +/- of -11.  Green and Pargo cannot touch the floor tonight if the Hawks want a shot at winning.

-Joe Johnson has to show up.  I think the Celtics cover if Pierce outscores Johnson by more than 10 points tonight.  I like the Hawks to cover if Joe scores 5 or less points than Pierce.

-The Hawks must pressure Rondo.  You can't play off Rondo and allow him to easily scan the court and rack up 15 assists and get everyone going with easy shots.  The Hawks would be better off pressuring Rondo and forcing him to be the primary scorer.   

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Posted: 5/10/2012 3:58:54 PM

I agree with you that Atlanta should try to make Rondo a scorer. I would deny Pierce and Garnett the ball and let Rondo have more 1-1 chances to attack.

That being said, Rondo is a beat when he is motivated. He is going to dominate tonight. I called the triple double ahead of time last time. This time I see more of a 15-15 type game, I do not think Rondo gets as many rebounds but I think they look to have him push the ball more then they do on the road

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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:03:14 PM
Good write up , Horford was good on last game , he is a chance for Atlanta but I don't believe them to win tonight
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:07:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MustRisk2Win:

I agree with you that Atlanta should try to make Rondo a scorer. I would deny Pierce and Garnett the ball and let Rondo have more 1-1 chances to attack.

That being said, Rondo is a beat when he is motivated. He is going to dominate tonight. I called the triple double ahead of time last time. This time I see more of a 15-15 type game, I do not think Rondo gets as many rebounds but I think they look to have him push the ball more then they do on the road

 

Yea, Rondo is going to be a BIG problem for the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are better off crowding him on the outside and forcing him to penetrate and score over Smith and Horford.   The wing players will have to stay at home and not leave their assignment though. 

I'm not sure if Drew is smart enough to know this though.  The Hawks seem to always have an inferior coach. 

I would LOVE for the Hawks to get Stan Van Gundy in the offseason. 

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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:08:56 PM
i think for boston to get this game, rondo has to go for 30 and 10.   we all know he's coming out aggressive tonight, it's just whether or not he's able to score.
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:22:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

-I think the biggest factor will be Smith and Horford's legs vs Pierce's legs.  Smith and Pierce are clearly dealing with nagging leg injuries right now and are not themselves.  Horford played lights out on Tuesday but played 41 minutes.  Will his body be fully recovered by tonight?  I think the Hawks have a solid chance at the cover and win if Horford is able to play as strong as he did in game 5.  Celtics probably cover if his legs aren't fully recovered. 

-Celtics have no answer for Smith and Horford.  Garnett can guard one of the two but not both.  Bass got abused in game 5 and finished with a +/- of -22.  Hollins seemed to do a better job on defense than Bass. 

-Horford being back opens up the 3 pt shot for the Hawks backcourt.  The Celtics were able to hedge out and play the 3 pt line tight in the first 4 games because Collins and Dampier are non-existent on offense. They have to stay in tight on Horford and it showed in game 5. 

-The Hawks shot 21/82 (26%) from 3 in the first 4 games and 7/16 (44%) in game 5.  The Hawks were 5th in the league in 3 pt % for the regular season at 37%. 

-Larry Drew must stick with Kirk Hinrich over Willie Green.  Hinrich was 3/4 with 7 points in the 7 minutes of PT that he had in the 1st half of game 5.  Even with his solid play, Larry Drew decides to play Willie Green over Hinrich for the 7 minute rotation in the 2nd half.  Willie contributed 0 points and 1 rebound with a +/- of -11.  Green and Pargo cannot touch the floor tonight if the Hawks want a shot at winning.

-Joe Johnson has to show up.  I think the Celtics cover if Pierce outscores Johnson by more than 10 points tonight.  I like the Hawks to cover if Joe scores 5 or less points than Pierce.

-The Hawks must pressure Rondo.  You can't play off Rondo and allow him to easily scan the court and rack up 15 assists and get everyone going with easy shots.  The Hawks would be better off pressuring Rondo and forcing him to be the primary scorer.   

STEIMSMA can slow down Smith in the paint. But Smith is to quick for him away from the post. Did anyone see his defensive effort last game? I was impressed.

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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:30:30 PM
2nd H play I have no idea......gl fellas
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:35:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

STEIMSMA can slow down Smith in the paint. But Smith is to quick for him away from the post. Did anyone see his defensive effort last game? I was impressed.

 

I don't think anyone saw it because he only played 4 minutes.  I doubt he plays more than 6 minutes tonight unless the Celtics get in foul trouble which is highly unlikely.

Stiemsma is a liability on defense when Horford and Smith are on the floor, in my opinion.

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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:43:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

 

I don't think anyone saw it because he only played 4 minutes.  I doubt he plays more than 6 minutes tonight unless the Celtics get in foul trouble which is highly unlikely.

Stiemsma is a liability on defense when Horford and Smith are on the floor, in my opinion.

Yeah he can be. My leans are ATL tonight and the Over on LA/DEN game? How bout u?

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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:50:47 PM

I have a few small plays left to close out from last night.

I teased Heat -6.5 and Hawks +11

Parlayed Grizz 1st half ML, Heat -11, Hawks +7 and Chicago +5

and

Parlayed Grizz ML, Heat -11, Hawks ML and Chicago ML.

 

I may just let these be and play nothing else tonight other than tailing Prof.

2 props I have leans on are:

Horford Over 13.5 pts +115

Deng Over 15.5 pts -125

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#11
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:57:41 PM
I don't play props but i like the Harford pick alot.
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:36:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

I don't play props but i like the Harford pick alot.

Yea Horford should be able to cover it as long as he is able to play with the same energy that he played with in game 5
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#13
Posted: 5/10/2012 7:01:42 PM
GL hope u get the win
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:16:44 PM
Great post and thoughts Flamingo. 

With Pierce's health uncertain, I like the Hawks to possibly get the SU win. Horford changes the entire dynamic and offensive flow for Atlanta; the C's were not prepared for him to return and play at thislevel.

It's going to be a well fought game. 
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:25:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Great post and thoughts Flamingo. 

With Pierce's health uncertain, I like the Hawks to possibly get the SU win. Horford changes the entire dynamic and offensive flow for Atlanta; the C's were not prepared for him to return and play at thislevel.

It's going to be a well fought game. 

Mellow   GL tonight bud
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#16
Posted: 5/10/2012 7:29:00 PM

Deng looking Good..

Did you grab the Rondo Over 11.5 Assists before it went to 12?

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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:32:03 PM
Noooooooooooooooooooooo, I hope deng is ok 
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:39:20 PM
I didn't play any props tonight.  Just sticking with the plays I have open from yesterday
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#19
Posted: 5/10/2012 7:42:02 PM
Do you know if hes coming back into the game?
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:42:30 PM
If the Hawk's were capable of doing any of the things you said they need to do they wouldn't be facing Elimination tonight .... They simply CAN'T DO IT!!!
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:44:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

If the Hawk's were capable of doing any of the things you said they need to do they wouldn't be facing Elimination tonight .... They simply CAN'T DO IT!!!

If they had Horford healthy this whole series they wouldn't be facing elimination tonight 
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:44:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FTP:

Do you know if hes coming back into the game?

Did he get hurt or something?  I don't have NBAtv so I haven't been watching the game.
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:45:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

If the Hawk's were capable of doing any of the things you said they need to do they wouldn't be facing Elimination tonight .... They simply CAN'T DO IT!!!

and what exactly did I see in my post that they "are capable of".  The only thing I see is about pressuring Rondo and forcing him to be the primary scorer.  What are these multiple "things" that you are speaking of?
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:46:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

STEIMSMA can slow down Smith in the paint. But Smith is to quick for him away from the post. Did anyone see his defensive effort last game? I was impressed.


Huh? Are you talking about Stiemsma? 
Stiemsma played only 4 minutes. He had 2 rebounds, 1 block, 1 foul, and 1 turnover with no points. You were impressed by what, exactly?
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Posted: 5/10/2012 7:47:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:


Did he get hurt or something?  I don't have NBAtv so I haven't been watching the game.

Yeah he got cut by an Elbow over the Nose, but he is Good...

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