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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Prop Play of the Day: Mike Conley Over 14 points -125
FlamingoBarnes send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/9/2012 2:01:14 PM

Prop Record: 11-5

Mike Conley Over 14 points -125

Let me start off by saying that Conley has been one of the most impressive performers in these playoffs so far.  Conley has averaged 17.5 pts and 7.5 assts on 50% shooting through the first 4 games.  He has scored 17, 19, 9 and 25 points in the first 4 games which means he is 3-1 against this prop.

I like this prop tonight because of the defensive switch that Lionel Hollins made in game 4:

-Conley guarded Chris Paul in games 1-3 and the Grizz made the decision to put Tony Allen on Paul in game 4.  This switch allows Conley to rest more on defense and it showed in his offensive output as Conley had his best game of the series.  He scored 25 pts on 67% shooting and played 46 minutes.  He had 21 of his points in regulation. 

-Allen did a pretty good job on Paul.  Paul didn't start going off until they started running the pick and roll at the top of the key with Reggie Evans and the Grizz decided to keep switching which left their big men on an island with Paul.  The Grizzlies need to double Paul off of the screen and force Reggie Evans to try and make a play.

 

Blake Griffin Under 10 Rebounds -150

I played this prop last game and Blake was never close to reaching the total.  He finished with 1 rebound in the first half and 5 for the game.  He has a total of 9 rebounds in the past 2 games and he is 0-6-1 against this prop this year when facing the Grizz.

My bet will be slightly smaller than last game's in order to adjust for the additional juice. 

 

Sides, Teasers and Parlays

Miami -11

Parlay Miami -11 Grizzlies ML Braves -1.5    +490

Tease Miami -6.5 Hawks +11

Miami -4.5 (to close out the teaser I posted on Monday)

 

Possible add:  I may add the Lebron points prop depending on the line.  My book hasn't released it yet, but I expect Lebron to go off tonight.

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Posted: 5/9/2012 3:45:22 PM

Adding:

Lebron James Over 28 points -115

Lebron has scored 32, 19, 32 and 27 points in this series.  I think the Heat will be out for blood tonight which usually means that Lebron is playing aggressive.  He covers the number when he is aggressive and forces the issue and doesn't when he is more passive.  Lebron averaged 13.5 FTs in the games where he covered the number and 7.5 in the games where he did not.  I expect Lebron tries to force the issue tonight and ends up with a FT total closer to 13 instead of 7.

 

Knicks Team Total Under 86 points  -115

 

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#3
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:03:28 PM
LOVE LEBRON PROP!!!
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#4
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:05:10 PM
Wish they had a WADE poor shot selection Prop..that guy is a great hoop player but every game he takes at least 2 RIDICLOUS fool SHOT'S!!!
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UPNTHAPORT
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#5
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:21:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Adding:

Lebron James Over 28 points -115

Lebron has scored 32, 19, 32 and 27 points in this series.  I think the Heat will be out for blood tonight which usually means that Lebron is playing aggressive.  He covers the number when he is aggressive and forces the issue and doesn't when he is more passive.  Lebron averaged 13.5 FTs in the games where he covered the number and 7.5 in the games where he did not.  I expect Lebron tries to force the issue tonight and ends up with a FT total closer to 13 instead of 7.

 

Knicks Team Total Under 86 points  -115

 

All Over the LBJ Over 28 Points..

He Goes OFF!!!!

Been looking real hard at the Melo Under 27 Points..

I can see him having an off night with the Heat stepping up the D tonight making him their top priority..

It is always Tricky to Fade  Melo, But I can see him having a 19 to 22 Point performance tonight..

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#6
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:28:10 PM

Flamingo, I won a couple days ago with your Griffin under, Paul over and teaser..................THANKS!!!

     back again with ya on the tease, Griffin, Conley, and Lebron props.


 

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Posted: 5/9/2012 5:34:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT:

All Over the LBJ Over 28 Points..

He Goes OFF!!!!

Been looking real hard at the Melo Under 27 Points..

I can see him having an off night with the Heat stepping up the D tonight making him their top priority..

It is always Tricky to Fade  Melo, But I can see him having a 19 to 22 Point performance tonight..


Yea I think the Knicks struggle to score which means that Melo should also struggle to score but I think the New York Team Total Prop is a better prop than the Melo points prop.  
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Posted: 5/9/2012 5:37:24 PM
Motorcity 
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Posted: 5/9/2012 6:25:54 PM
Adding:  Mario Chalmers Over 15.5 pts + assists

Chalmers has covered this number 3 out of the first 4 games.  The Heat are at home tonight and the Heat scored 100 or more in the first 2 home games of this series.  Chalmers totaled 20 and 19 towards this total in the first 2 home games. 
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#10
Posted: 5/9/2012 8:12:57 PM
James only 6 attempts in the 1st half
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Posted: 5/9/2012 8:51:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FTP:

James only 6 attempts in the 1st half

Yea the Lebron prop is looking like a loser.  He just isn't looking to score at all tonight.  There have been a couple of times where he has been on the block with Bibby on his back and he has passed.  Kind of frustrating.  Chalmers isn't seeing the ball at all either.

Miami seems content in playing just good enough to win tonight and aren't really trying.  I picked the wrong time to back them hard.  I just hope they will cover the 11 now. 
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#12
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:10:54 PM
I like ur conley prop also but my book has pts + assts at 22. i dont like conley to get no more than 7 assts. so theres no value in that bet 4 me conley is an under the radar pt guard and he has more than held is own first CP3
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Posted: 5/9/2012 9:14:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by minimambaa:

I like ur conley prop also but my book has pts + assts at 22. i dont like conley to get no more than 7 assts. so theres no value in that bet 4 me conley is an under the radar pt guard and he has more than held is own first CP3

GL tonight Mamba 


These Heat props would be looking a hell of a lot better if Wade would pass the damn ball on the break.  He has got to be like 2-10 on the break tonight.
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#14
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:21:22 PM
u want the knicks to make a quick run so they dont take lebron and chalmers out that was a good look by lebron he has 24 that would of made 27
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#15
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:23:47 PM

Are you guys watching the same game as me??  Labron has +24 with 5 min left.

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Posted: 5/9/2012 9:25:01 PM
Hopefully Lebron knocks these 2 down
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Posted: 5/9/2012 9:25:44 PM
of course he misses 1.  better not finish with 27
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Posted: 5/9/2012 9:26:50 PM
Wade is a piece of garbage. How many acrobatic prayer shots is he going to brick tonight.
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#19
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:38:47 PM
     Labron over 28 !    Thanks Flamingo!!!   
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#20
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:00:35 PM
Lebron !!! 
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#21
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:07:45 PM
Had over 29 that last missed freethrow hurt :) but happy with a push
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#22
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:19:56 PM
Conley passing up on wide open layups.
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#23
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:24:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Conley passing up on wide open layups.


scared to shoot up 15 , tough loss. had him over 15 points +assists
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#24
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:26:33 PM
Now hes trying to foul out
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#25
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:43:52 PM
How does throwing the ball off of someone considered a rebound?
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