The Public are Pounding The Heat & Clippers on the Spread...Are They Right or Wrong?

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: The Public are Pounding The Heat & Clippers on the Spread...Are They Right or Wrong?
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 11:53:59 AM

Good day to all..

I have been watching the Public percentages this morning and it is lop sided on both the Heat & Clippers on the spread...

Does the Public bet get it right tonight??

I personally think they Go 1-1 on the Spread...

Knicks/Heat:

I think many believe that Miami will Blow the Knicks out after losing Game 4 which at one time they had an 11 point lead in and let it get away..

The Heat have had to listen to the Media & Fans blast them on their last second shot selection and lack of effort at times, So I would be willing to say the Heat come out focused and determined to pound the Knicks and close this one out with a Bang..

Plus the Knicks loss of Baron Davis will really bother them tonight, I see The Heat Turning up the Defense and causing alot of trouble for the Knicks tonight & rolling by DD'S..

Lean HEAT..

Clippers/Grizzlies:

This series has been the most competitive to me with each game coming down to the wire..

I was expecting a closer line than -6.5..

The Clippers last Home Game only went off at -1.5...

It seems kind of high to me considering either Team has lost by more than 4 Points and now the Grizzlies are getting 6.5..

But I am accually thinking about taking the Grizzlies in this spot because it would seem to easy to take the Clippers getting +6.5.

 It smells like a trap to me set by Vegas to get everyone's money on the Clippers which is happening..

I think the Grizzlies come out Fired up at Home and play something serious to stay alive and send this one Back to L.A for a game 6, and in doing so Cover this line as well.. 

Lean GRIZZLIES..

I will continue to watch any Line Movement & Public Percentages up until Game time before making a play just to be sure though..

Bol to everyone Tonight...

Betting Trends
Team Open Sportsbook Hilton Caesars MGM Stations Offshore Bookmaker 05/09/2012 7:05 PM EDT
723 NEW YORK KNICKS 183.5 183 183 183 182.5 183 183u07 183
724 MIAMI HEAT -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 EVEN -11
05/09/2012 9:35 PM EDT
727 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 183.5 182 182.5 183 183.5 183 182.5u11 182
728 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -6 -04 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6 -6 -6.5 -06 -6.5

teddy0001 PM teddy0001
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Posted: 5/9/2012 11:57:32 AM
clippersml
FlamingoBarnes PM FlamingoBarnes
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Posted: 5/9/2012 11:59:09 AM
I agree on both ends Port. 
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 12:05:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

I agree on both ends Port. 

....

BravesFan1984 PM BravesFan1984
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Posted: 5/9/2012 12:31:16 PM
Grizzlies
jenret78 PM jenret78
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Posted: 5/9/2012 1:07:02 PM
CLIPS
Degen55 PM Degen55
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Posted: 5/9/2012 1:14:09 PM

I wouldn't touch Grizzlies/Clippers, I could make a case either way, Grizzlies should have won both home games if it wasn't for that insane comeback.

I am leaning heat also but I think I am just going to bet the UNDER for  MIA/ NYK. With no Baron Davis that means Bibby and JR Smith will have to run point and Carmelo will handle the ball a lot. When carmelo is on the bench, that just leaves Amare and Smith to score. I think NY is out of gas, they had one last good game @ home, but Carmelo can't keep doing this by himself, if he has a bad shooting night under hits for sure, maybe Heat cover as well.

UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 1:30:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Degen55:

I wouldn't touch Grizzlies/Clippers, I could make a case either way, Grizzlies should have won both home games if it wasn't for that insane comeback.

I am leaning heat also but I think I am just going to bet the UNDER for  MIA/ NYK. With no Baron Davis that means Bibby and JR Smith will have to run point and Carmelo will handle the ball a lot. When carmelo is on the bench, that just leaves Amare and Smith to score. I think NY is out of gas, they had one last good game @ home, but Carmelo can't keep doing this by himself, if he has a bad shooting night under hits for sure, maybe Heat cover as well.

Yeah the Grizzlies have had their oppurtunites to close out Games and could very well be up 3-1 theirselves, but they have let it get away..

What sticks out to me though in this Game is that Vegas is giving the The Clippers +6.5 points knowing how close these games have been, and the Public is eating it alive..

 I just think they set that line to get everyone to Clippers which they have accomplished because they see the Grizzlies Covering the spread & winning in an elimination Game at Home....

Just my opinion though..

And I think the Heat take Melo out of this Game as much as possible, might even take a Prop on him Under 27 points..

I think the Heat blow the doors open on this one at some point in this Game, and no matter how high the line was set everyone is still taking it which I can't disagree on this one..

The Heat can turn it on when they want to, and I believe tonight they do so.

Also like the Over 28 Points for LBJ...

 

Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
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Posted: 5/9/2012 1:48:13 PM
You guy's and THE PUBLIC agian!!!
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 1:58:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

You guy's and THE PUBLIC agian!!!

You don't take into consideration what the Public is playing when you are Capping your Games?

 

CalBear PM CalBear
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:04:49 PM
GL port!
Posted using a mobile device.
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:07:32 PM
Heat and Clips are public teams.  U generally expect that.

I love how everyone says the line is high for Miami-does that point to Miami or what.  Like I've been saying, everyone and their dog was on Miami last game, suddenly it's something to think about

Memphis -6 or -6.5 is crazy consdering they're down 3-1 and lost 2 in a row.  That spread means they'll win the game fairly easily/handily. Against the Clippers?  Sounds funny to me.
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:08:55 PM
Also you're right losing Baron Davis means Bibby at point guard.  When he's out Carmelo and Smith are at the point.

As I said, as long as LeBron guards Melo, Melo has no chance.  He absolutely kills him.  They put Battier on Melo, was working, not last game.  They have to put LeBron back on Melo.

Smith and Novak need a point guard to distribute the ball to get 3's.
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:24:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BadBeat2k9:


To me honestly it just seems like a distraction. I used to take the consensus into consideration, and since i stopped i've won more. Alot of times people find themselves questioning their original pick because of the consensus. Everyone had their own opinion about it, but to me the consensus plays no role in the way the players play the game.

I guess it is all up to the individual..

Everyone has their own style when it comes to capping, I personally like to see what the Public is betting in order to make a decision on my Play..

The Grizzlies Game is a perfect example tonight...

Bol on your Plays..

 I always like to hear others Positive feeedback...

Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:24:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT:

You don't take into consideration what the Public is playing when you are Capping your Games?

 

 

If you take a look in the History I've stated a few times that the Public is a BS Idea made up by the oddsmaker's to help assist even distributions of wager's. First of all not that many people wager on sports esp Basketball secondly there is no adaquate system to keep track of everyones wager as all people bet all different way's all different times and all different places. any company giving you a stat is full of crap.do you think the place you played your wager actually gave that information over to someone? It's nonsense not to mention what about the hundreds of people that play right before the game? Did you play today's NBA wger already? Oddsmaker's know that some people will bet soley agianst what they believe the public is on that helps even out the action.

budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:26:29 PM
thing is the public's sometimes right...if you bet against the public you could just bet against the yankees every game.  but then you'd STILL lose $

it's more important to find the right angle.  jmo
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:30:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

 

If you take a look in the History I've stated a few times that the Public is a BS Idea made up by the oddsmaker's to help assist even distributions of wager's. First of all not that many people wager on sports esp Basketball secondly there is no adaquate system to keep track of everyones wager as all people bet all different way's all different times and all different places. any company giving you a stat is full of crap.do you think the place you played your wager actually gave that information over to someone? It's nonsense not to mention what about the hundreds of people that play right before the game? Did you play today's NBA wger already? Oddsmaker's know that some people will bet soley agianst what they believe the public is on that helps even out the action.

Ok...

Thanks for your input..

cmod123 PM cmod123
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:32:10 PM
MIKECOUU78 PM MIKECOUU78
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:33:18 PM
pepsi562 PM pepsi562
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:34:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:

thing is the public's sometimes right...if you bet against the public you could just bet against the yankees every game.  but then you'd STILL lose $

it's more important to find the right angle.  jmo


actually there's one team that comes to mind for me that you can pretty much blindly fade (for those who have good money management)  lakers, every year pretty much they have fared poorly ats including playoffs..
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:45:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BadBeat2k9:


Hey best of the luck to you too man. I'm glad you realized that i meant no offense by what i was stating. Some people on here are so defensive about things. We may lean different ways as far as the meaning of public opinion, but thats no reason we can't be civil. Best of luck on your plays today, and have a great day in general

...

UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/9/2012 2:46:35 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CalBear:

GL port!

...

cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 5/9/2012 4:03:57 PM

hey brotha. i'm just tailing procap and taking grizzlies-3.5 first half only.

i hate the grizzlies and Rudy happy's effort last game. they can't play the 4th quarter and close games. i like my chances with the 1st half play.

i hope the ref's don't side with the clippers tonight and call everything on Memphis. Especially with CP3 and his over exaggerated fake flops and falls.

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Posted: 5/9/2012 4:12:18 PM

looked into the heat play further...

i like them heat-11 tonight too

Imadegenerate PM Imadegenerate
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Posted: 5/9/2012 4:49:57 PM
nice write up on the Grizz game but I think the knicks will battle for their lives tonight and might even win straight up! 
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