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[NBA Betting] Topic: Why? WHY do these bettors hit me with sure bets like that??? |
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kvnjensen |
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#26 Posted: 5/10/2012 12:52:46 AM
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followmylead |
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#27 Posted: 5/10/2012 12:52:48 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook: So yesterday I found a sports gambler through a friend and also a customer looking for some action. I only have one active customer right now and he's been paying my bills. So why not get a 2nd one..
This guy usually bets $100 units, up to $500 sometimes. That's the range of most bets I take and place (unless on a really hot parlay streak).
And you know what he did today? He placed a $5000 bet, a 2-team parlay on:
Heat Moneyline
Clippers +12 at -340
Odds: -243
For a payout of $2058.
There goes 2K that he will take out of me like an ATM without a sweat. I don't even understand why books offer these kinds of bets. There is no way in hell the heat will lose at home, or let the Knicks keep it within 15. There is no way the clippers will lose by more than 12, as they are leading the series 3-1, they might not even lose at all. They lost one game and that was by 7.
They say you can invest your money in government bonds or T-bills risk-free at 4% a year, or take riskier companies at maybe an expected return of 10% or more. How about a 40% return on your money RISK-FREE in one day?
Everytime someone did that to me in the past he cashed out right away and disappeared, even though I promptly paid him in cash.
The last guys won something like 4 nfl teasers in a row and disappeared forever.
MEM taking game 6. 3-1 means nothing. Now 3-2. |
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eddothebook |
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#28 Posted: 5/10/2012 12:53:42 AM
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eddothebook |
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#29 Posted: 5/10/2012 1:01:58 AM
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Michfan15 |
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#30 Posted: 5/10/2012 1:06:28 AM |
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eddothebook |
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#31 Posted: 5/10/2012 1:09:10 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by aKaGeeMan:
lol girl about +12 and now that you got some attention it's all of a sudden +13...get the darn out of here. i think you're trying to get some dumbass on here to depo with you seeing what type of bets you allow.
 Buddy, if I took action from everyone that's whiling to give me, I would never have to work a day in my life. I don't take action from people I don't know. I don't even take action from people I know unless I know them very well and we have some kind of common network and where stiffing the other for a couple of hundred or thousand would result in a bigger cost in terms of reputation.
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memo28 |
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#32 Posted: 5/10/2012 1:14:16 AM
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MrBogey |
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#33 Posted: 5/10/2012 7:27:12 AM
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#34 Posted: 5/10/2012 10:26:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook: Lol and the little garbage just smacked me for yet another sure thing parlay for more money that possibly exists... Lakers, Clippers, Celtics to win series, parlayed. Odds -124. He wanted to lay 20k. I told him I can only do 10 at this point (because it's last minute and I also need to sell some of his action to my bookie). Can't really take a 100 unit risk on myself.
Three teams about to eliminate their opponents at home. He said he's never been so sure of anything in his life.
That isn't a sure thing at all. Let him lay the 20k |
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BravesFan1984 |
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#35 Posted: 5/10/2012 10:37:39 AM  |
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Nienkerk |
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#36 Posted: 5/10/2012 10:39:51 AM
Then +12-+13
What would i do without the comedy on these forums |
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Nienkerk |
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#37 Posted: 5/10/2012 10:40:21 AM |
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eddothebook |
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#38 Posted: 5/10/2012 2:33:45 PM
Why do people post their plays ? Because they're just so nice and want the "attention" of virtual strangers?
No I did not know the nature of that foul, the same way a professional poker dealer could not beat Phil Ivey at the game but knows the rules, etc. I took action, did not care about the hows |
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eddothebook |
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#39 Posted: 5/10/2012 2:35:34 PM |
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eddothebook |
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#40 Posted: 5/11/2012 8:38:58 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook:
Lol and the little garbage just smacked me for yet another sure thing parlay for more money that possibly exists... Lakers, Clippers, Celtics to win series, parlayed. Odds -124. He wanted to lay 20k. I told him I can only do 10 at this point.
Looks like he got lucky AGAIN with Boston. If Atlanta had won that game,
his huge parlay that was paying -124 odds would have been an underdog
as Boston would need to travel to Atlanta and win and the L.A. team
would each need to win their series respectively.
Not only that, but he would probably try to buy his way out of his ticket for a part of his stake, as he is been begging me to do so.
Boston won. Lakers and Clippers each lost a game. There are no odds for their next game to win.
Basically right now he has 10K riding to win about 8K, needing the Lakers to win Game 7 and the Clippers to win game 6 OR Game 7.
How much would I need to risk on a 2-game series parlay right now (Lakers/Clippers) for the payout + my stake to be 18K ? If the odds are -300 for Lakers and Clippers respectively, then the answer would be 10K.
(1/3 + 1)^2 = 1.78
1.78 *10K = 17,800
This means with Boston already winning but the Lakers and Clippers each losing a game, I should let my guy cancel his ticket free of charge to be EV neutral. However, we do not know what the odds are going to be.
I actually believe the Lakers will be around -175 and the Clippers -230 (but if they lose, they will be slight underdogs in Memphis). Assuming Clippers odds of losing both games are (30%*60%) = 18%, the odds should be -455.
(1/4.55 + 1)*(1/1.75 + 1) = 1.917
Which means his ticket is worth about $9400, or $600 less than what he started with. He is a gambler and he does not want to experience the feeling of watching the Lakers and Clippers win while being bought out of his ticket. He rather lose. All gamblers rather lose than not have action on a winning game. How do I buy him out short? How do I convince him that even though Boston already won, for him to get out of this ticket, he's actually going to have to pay money out?
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kvnjensen |
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#41 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:31:39 AM
this just seems like something a bookie should not be asking a board IMO.
griffen and cp3 are hurt. lakers are terrible. there ya go.
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eddothebook |
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#42 Posted: 5/11/2012 12:47:35 PM
The Lakers are actually -270. I honestly think the Nuggets are a better team but it's all a stage. The NBA would never pass up a OKC/LA series.
I did all the math, all the joint probabilities etc and I came to a number: 44%. My guy has a 44% chance of hitting his parlay, which means I should let him cancel his wager for a price of $2000. If I can get a better number out of him I'll cancel it for him, if not, then I'll sweat out the 18K swing.
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eddothebook |
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#43 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:26:47 PM
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eddothebook |
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#44 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:59:08 PM
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eddothebook |
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#45 Posted: 5/12/2012 1:05:27 AM 
Gamblers get a high from the uncertainty of whether they are going to win 10K or lose 10K. They almost rather lose than take a small loss or small win with no action. I think I will have to take the risk and let him bury himself.
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NOmoose |
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#46 Posted: 5/12/2012 1:13:50 AM |
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eddothebook |
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#47 Posted: 5/12/2012 4:36:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by NOmoose:
tbh I didn't read alot of this thread.. Who do you need to win?
Denver OR Memphis.
According to my calculations, his ticket is worth 25.6% of his original stake! Which means if you risked $x right now on a no-juice parlay Lakers/Clippers, the payout would be about 6 to 1, which will approximately equal to his original stake + would-be winnings.
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eddothebook |
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#48 Posted: 5/13/2012 9:59:07 AM
And now for the 18K swing, going into today's basketball game as a 4 to 1 fav (me). 
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#49 Posted: 5/13/2012 10:14:08 AM |
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eddothebook |
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#50 Posted: 5/13/2012 4:10:10 PM 
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