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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
circa_clown
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#776
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:08:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:


Hi I'm also looking for the relation between line movements and results in baseball totals. Can you please explain how you do that because I found it inaccurate sometimes.


I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com. 

I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u.  Then I go to covers consensus.  I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move. 

I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..

IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick.  --For example--  Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5.  I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts.  I will do the pick in this case.
 !!But Remember!!
It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good.  A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line.
-->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in.  That's why I have that exception.

I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive.  It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio.  But more research is necessary..

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#777
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:09:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey started new record the other night and forgot to post results yesterday (1-1 personal picks) since there were no system plays. 

3-0 system
1-1 personal

Both picks tonight mem and under are personal picks.


Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS.  I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays.  You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense. 
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#778
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:58:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ezmoney123:



Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS.  I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays.  You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense. 

Lol this may be true. Don't care what you want though. 
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#779
Posted: 5/11/2012 10:03:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by circa_clown:



I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com. 

I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u.  Then I go to covers consensus.  I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move. 

I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..

IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick.  --For example--  Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5.  I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts.  I will do the pick in this case.
 !!But Remember!!
It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good.  A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line.
-->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in.  That's why I have that exception.

I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive.  It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio.  But more research is necessary..



I'm kinda doing the same thing. I think one important thing is to figure out whether the line movement is to balance the public or it's because of sharps' expectation. One different I found is that in NBA playoffs there are significant line movements (a whole point like from 178 to 177) 5~15 minutes before games, but I couldn't find them in baseball. These "game time" line movements have been extremely accurate so far.
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#780
Posted: 5/11/2012 10:03:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ezmoney123:



Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS.  I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays.  You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense. 

Furthermore the 101 plays you can figure out yourself now since I already gift-wrapped the system for you. 

The 2.0 system is my new project now and you do need those if/when 101 doesn't give them to you. 
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#781
Posted: 5/11/2012 10:18:11 PM
No system plays second half. 
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#782
Posted: 5/11/2012 10:20:45 PM
Over  88.5 easy 
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#783
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:13:22 PM
New to the forum, but I like your system.  Denver/LAL dropped from 198.5 to 196.5, but public is 59% on over.
Under would be system play, right? 
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#784
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:26:38 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by TGoBigRed] New to the forum, but I like your system.  Denver/LAL dropped from 198.5 to 196.5, but public is 59% on over.
Under would be system play, right? 
[/Quote

Next game? If so I haven't looked yet. 
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#785
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:28:19 PM
Man with the under tracking first 42 minutes of the game I'd say it was the right pick but that 3rd quarter was nuts and now the total is suspect. Wouldn't surprise me if it tips over. I think we all knew this game was tough and a no-play but I grabbed the last second line moves. Still working on that part. 
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#786
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:52:42 PM
Under was the right play and about to get sucked out here cuz of that 3rd quarter. 
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#787
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:56:34 PM
Lol under hits and my Memphis -2 pushes. Posted Memphis at -2.5 and it loses on that last second shot. Wow. Okay whatever 1-1
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#788
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:58:06 PM
Yeah I pushed and won.  Those who took Memphis -2.5 took too long to wager.  Still a good night.  

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#789
Posted: 5/11/2012 11:59:03 PM
That was nuts. 1-0-1 wagers and 1-1 posted system plays.  We were on the right sides though and both picks hit according to opening lines. 

This makes me think back to when the dude said the only flaw in my system is taking a shitty price on every pick, and I said that's the price of being on the sharp side every time. 
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#790
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:01:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by misterstats:

Yeah I pushed and won.  Those who took Memphis -2.5 took too long to wager.  Still a good night.  


I pushed and won also but wanted the posted line to hit also. Sigh. Memphis shoulda covered -2.5 also, and I don't mind posting a loss by 1/2 a point. 

Anyways I had $230 on Memphis -2 and $200 on the under 178.5.  I'll take that since I thought it was gonna go over.  
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#791
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:02:40 AM
I parlayed mine and won! 
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#792
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:02:41 AM
Guys one thing we never discussed before is analyzing the system plays' pformance vs opening lines. Against the opens were 2-0 tonight even at -2.5. Mem and under were both the right sides to be on. Anyone who took clips +2.5 got lucky as garbage right there. 
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#793
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:03:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:


I pushed and won also but wanted the posted line to hit also. Sigh. Memphis shoulda covered -2.5 also, and I don't mind posting a loss by 1/2 a point. 

Anyways I had $230 on Memphis -2 and $200 on the under 178.5.  I'll take that since I thought it was gonna go over.  

Dude that was with Randy Foye hitting that 3.  When they inbounded the ball to Conley I was shouting "Run Fool! Run!" LOL
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#794
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:05:06 AM
I'm already thinking about potentially teasing some sharp plays next year. I actually did that a few times earlier in season and did really well with them. Think about it they already hit a real high percentage and when they lose they often barely lose. I'd think the teasers would hit really high %
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#795
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:05:30 AM
That's why they don't offer open teasers. If they did I'd never lose. 
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#796
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:08:17 AM
The best bet was Memphis Moneyline those both teams are really competitive. But as rule 3. You have to follow your guts and my guts was on moneyline or buying two points which will be -150 and the moneyline was -140 which was better.
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#797
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:08:21 AM
Thanks again Razor! Mad props Mad skillz 
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#798
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:12:19 AM
Great work guys.  See you guys tomorrow and let's do it again!

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#799
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:27:43 AM
Well can't have my cake and eat it too. I was liking Memphis all day (all series really) but wasn't willing to post them as system plays until they went to -2.5. Same with the total, which was equally close. 

System 2.0 record
4-1 YTD
1-1 today 
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#800
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:32:53 AM
I know this doesn't matter per se but I was thinking about that buster again that made the comment about me taking plays at shitty prices. 

If we looked at the system's performance vs opening lines in regulation. I already know the % would be retarded. Compare that to that buster's record vs opening lines in regulation. 

Guys we're on the right track here. Sometimes you will take a 3 pt move and lose by 1/2 a point. Does that mean you shoulda acted sooner? NO. You can't have both. Either pick your picks or follow the sharps. I guarantee you you'll do better following the sharps. 

I take way more unders than overs, and sometimes those unders lose cuz of last minute dumb garbage, OT, and/or because of a worse price after a line move. That all sounds bad until you see you're still hitting over 60%. 
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