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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Follow Public Or Fade???
Degen55 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:16:26 PM

       I wouldn't bet Dallas, don't trust them. Can totally see a let down here @ home where they take lots of jump shots and go cold.

I think I gotta roll with MIA, I don't know how Vegas is going to get NY to  cover but it will be insane. So many mismatches in the starting Lineup for MIA. If Carmelo is playing the 4 as Woodson said, then Fields & JR smith have to guard Lebron & Wade. Also more minutes for Jefferies should help NY offense

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#27
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:16:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

OKC UNDER.

I think the over/under is a bit inflated. Check out the last two games in Dallas. It went no where near this total.

You make a great Point...

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#28
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:17:17 PM

The public is pounding the overs tonight. Time to fade them. This is also based on OKC/DAL past results in DALLAS.

UNDER is the play for me. You couldn't convince me otherwise.

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#29
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:18:17 PM

       I wouldn't bet Dallas, don't trust them. Can totally see a let down here @ home where they take lots of jump shots and go cold.

I think I gotta roll with MIA, I don't know how Vegas is going to get NY to  cover but it will be insane. So many mismatches in the starting Lineup for MIA. If Carmelo is playing the 4 as Woodson said, then Fields & JR smith have to guard Lebron & Wade. Also more minutes for Jefferies should help NY offense

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#30
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:26:30 PM

If knick game goes over, pound the under in the late game.

If knick game goes under, pound the over in the late game.

 

Be patient.  Over/Unders will split tonight.

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#31
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:31:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

The public is pounding the overs tonight. Time to fade them. This is also based on OKC/DAL past results in DALLAS.

UNDER is the play for me. You couldn't convince me otherwise.

...

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#32
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:34:08 PM

HEAT Have Moved to -6...

I wonder if it will get to -6.5 By Game Time?

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#33
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:39:07 PM

New York= playoff hopes on the line= a decent defensive effort.

Miami= two great games at home in games one and two= a poor performance on the road but still gets the win.

All i have to say is UNDER.

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#34
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:49:51 PM
In about an hour and 45 mins, Under Dal will be locked in. Dallas better play some defense and slow this game down, cause they don't stand a chance in a fast pace game with OKC. I see them losing in 5 like OKC last year.
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#35
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:56:23 PM

if you take NYK and MIA is getting 80% or more of bets then you take NYK and you ahve a 55% ATS long term trend, so NYK is your team

if its close to 80% your looking like 52-53%, either way MYK is the contrarian bet

Dal is the contrarian bet but theres no evidence betting against the public in that game has any long term trends, though I would always lean towards fading the pbulic since if you do that you cant go below 50% ATS which isnt bad

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#36
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:57:35 PM
70% are hitting th eover but the over under moved down, same thing for the DAL game, so 1 unit on each for me and I think I ll hit both maybe
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#37
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:57:53 PM

Has anyone taken a look at the Ref assignments tonight for the Heat/Knicks game tonight??

Between the 3 Refs tonight, they are a Combined 11-4 for the Home Underdog between 5 & 9 points..

The Knicks Currently sit at + 6...

Just something to look at...

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#38
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:58:02 PM
its national TV too which begs me to pick the under
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#39
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:00:31 PM

http://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspx

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html

http://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php

NBA - this is a summary of all online sports nsight articles:

Playoffs HT<40% public bet= 60% ATS for last 3 yrs bc HT playoff game atmosphere is great?

NBA visitor <30% public bet= 54-55% ATS from 2003-2011

<40% of bets only is 51% ATS, not anough to make $$

NBA visitor <30%=54% ATS, enough to build a bankroll

NBA visitr <25%= 55% ATS

Any team home or visitior <20%=54.4% ATS

So HOME Dogs <20% you can bet blindly and visitors <30%, that is the way to make money in the NBA historically!!

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#40
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:21:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spilmaz88:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspx

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html

http://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php

NBA - this is a summary of all online sports nsight articles:

Playoffs HT<40% public bet= 60% ATS for last 3 yrs bc HT playoff game atmosphere is great?

NBA visitor <30% public bet= 54-55% ATS from 2003-2011

<40% of bets only is 51% ATS, not anough to make $$

NBA visitor <30%=54% ATS, enough to build a bankroll

NBA visitr <25%= 55% ATS

Any team home or visitior <20%=54.4% ATS

So HOME Dogs <20% you can bet blindly and visitors <30%, that is the way to make money in the NBA historically!!

Great info. I never seen that before.
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#41
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:21:44 PM

The public or the %'s are 10-7 in totals and on a 6-2 run.

The linemovements are 5-10 in totals.

If the % and line movements are on opposite sides, back the line movements, strong chance to win.

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#42
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:25:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

The public or the %'s are 10-7 in totals and on a 6-2 run.

The linemovements are 5-10 in totals.

If the % and line movements are on opposite sides, back the line movements, strong chance to win.

Great Information...

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#43
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:27:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spilmaz88:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspx

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html

http://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php

NBA - this is a summary of all online sports nsight articles:

Playoffs HT<40% public bet= 60% ATS for last 3 yrs bc HT playoff game atmosphere is great?

NBA visitor <30% public bet= 54-55% ATS from 2003-2011

<40% of bets only is 51% ATS, not anough to make $$

NBA visitor <30%=54% ATS, enough to build a bankroll

NBA visitr <25%= 55% ATS

Any team home or visitior <20%=54.4% ATS

So HOME Dogs <20% you can bet blindly and visitors <30%, that is the way to make money in the NBA historically!!

This information is Great...

Thanks...

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#44
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:37:46 PM

I am seeing more and more Post's for the Knicks as their Play....

Suddenly the Heat are not getting the Love they once were earlier in the Day...

 

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#45
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:56:51 PM
Mike Callahan O/U 18-33
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#46
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:59:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT:

I am seeing more and more Post's for the Knicks as their Play....

Suddenly the Heat are not getting the Love they once were earlier in the Day...

 

Makes we wanna take the HEAT since the line is starting to persuade the public.
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#47
Posted: 5/3/2012 5:04:18 PM
Dogs 1 night--FAVS next--looking for split--1 fav-1 dog  --I like MIA --OKC
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#48
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:37:13 PM

i think mav will win tonight, maybe thunder can rally, and you comment mav ML & thunder covering will work, probably. but i'm really suspicious about knicks / heat. you know, james & wade are so hot when they come to MSG. i have to check some, now i think james is #2 -3 at MSG, wade is #4-6, sth. #1 player at MSG must be kobe. these two guys are so hot there, and amare & schumpert & lin out, then only mello.

but the line is just 5-6? this is ridiculous, and vegas wants public to take heat -5 or 6 sth, and they keep doing it, which makes me scary. this game must be stay-away game to me, maybe i'm leaning OVER, but no play is the best.

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#49
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:42:34 PM
imo 2 team 4.5 pt teaser is the play tonight, Heat/Knicks Over 180 and Mavs +1.5, Mavs should win, and honestly the Heat way outmatch the Knicks, I don't see how the Knicks can win, but if they do steal a game tonight is, the Knicks will look to push the ball and if it's a running game look for a lot of points, Over is the safest play in that game, and I'd be shocked if the Mavs lost, I'm personally loading up on this teaser, teasers have been very kind to me so far in the playoffs, got Dallas at +11 in the last game, easy $
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#50
Posted: 5/3/2012 9:46:41 PM

Looks Like a Fav Gets the 1st Game..

 

Got the Over 6.5 Free Throws Made Prop By Melo even though it was a clean Block By Lebron to get it.....

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