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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Let's talk about DEN/LAL tonight
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:09:38 PM
I think I'm leaning strong to DEN and the OVER in tonight's game -- here's why:

1. The box score from game 1 tells an interesting story. DEN got to the line 27 times, with 8 players getting to the line for at least two free throws. That tells us that DEN was being very aggressive with taking the ball to the rim (also told to us by the fact that they had 15 (!) shots blocked, 10 by Bynum). What about LAL? They shot 15 free throws with 11 of them coming from Kobe -- that means only two other guys got to the line for LAL. That screams "jump shots" to me as opposed to taking it hard to the rim, which is not a surprise if you've watched LAL this year at all. The playoffs tend to favor the aggressive offensive teams as opposed to jump shooting teams.

2. Let's take a gander at the refs for tonight -- Stern is sending out Pat Fraher, Monty McCutchen, and Tom Washington.  These stats will blow your mind: those three refs are a combined ATS of 22-4-2 for the last 10 DEN games they have called, and an astounding 6-24 ATS for the last 10 LAL games. That's unreal and makes you wonder if its just random noise in the data or something to consider in factoring out how tonight's game will go. Those numbers (22-4-2 and 6-24) are so far from the expected mean it makes me believe that it is not just a random blip in the data but might be hiding certain biases by these referees.

3. DEN shot the ball very poorly on Sunday, with Afflalo, Lawson, and Harrington going 10-36 from the field. I anticipate that there should be an uptick in that this game as those three are pretty solid players who tend to shoot the ball better than that on average. 

4. Last time that DEN played LAL twice in a row, they lost the first game by 3 and followed it up with a 9 point victory. Deja vu?

5. The pace in the game on Sunday has to favor DEN and the OVER you figure. Neither team shot the ball from deep particularly well, but a total of 176 shots is a lot of shots. Prior DEN/LAL games this year: total of 167, 153, 159, and 166 shots. DEN knows they need to push the pace and keep the tempo high to have a shot, they'll get destroyed if they play a half court game, they don't have the size to match LAL in the interior in a slow it down game.

6. Let's take a look at some of the quotes from DEN players about tonight's game:

Kenneth Faried: "''Yeah, but we help him a lot, too,'' said Denver forward Kenneth Faried, who had 10 points and eight rebounds in his NBA playoff debut. ''We step inside, and he basically gets 3 clear seconds (in the paint). We just have to get back to what we're used to doing, just getting up and down the floor and enjoying ourselves. ... If we get outside the (paint), Bynum can get caught for 3 seconds, because he does sit there a lot, just posts there like a tree and blocks a lot. He's got to move with us, and that takes him out of the middle.''"

Danilo Gallinari: "''We have to be more aware when he's in the paint, and we have to try to make the extra passes better,'' said Danilo Gallinari, who led the Nuggets with 19 points. ''We have to move the ball, and shoot before he gets there.''"

More quotes:

Ty Lawson: ""We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger.""


7. Jordan Hill, who had a solid game last Sunday, is now going to be dealing with the national spotlight after being charged for abusing his girlfriend while in HOU. Might effect how he plays tonight.

8. I think its fair to say that George Karl is a better game to game adjustments coach than Mike Brown. I expect Karl to have a few new wrinkles to throw at LAL tonight, especially on the defensive end.

9. Potential let-down game for Andrew Bynum, who is probably thinking that he is hot garbage right about now after his triple double on Sunday.

Anyone have any thoughts to add about this game?
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#2
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:15:56 PM
Good luck buddy
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#3
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:20:58 PM
Well I am also on Denver but for other reasons....But I think your reasoning and write up is absolutly brilliant  and greatly helps me pull the trigger
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#4
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:21:10 PM

Lakers are 4-1 ats in their last five home games, but they are also 0-8 at home when favored by 5-10 pts. Lakers did well at home straight up, by going 27-7 and Nuggets went 18-16 this season. i like the Lakers tonight but don't want to mess with spread, took LAL ML/MEM ML at EVEN money.

Good luck, Kapo!

 

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#5
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:22:09 PM

you just know what you can get from kap-o.

great writeup

good luck kap

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#6
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:26:31 PM
kapono - I have the same strong leans on this game as well. And I'll throw in I'm looking to find me a good Ty Lawson prop. Great writeup, good to see you seeing things the same
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#7
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:26:38 PM
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#8
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:26:39 PM
Those referee stats made me go when I first added them up
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#9
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:27:27 PM
nice write-up! especially number 1.

but i'll take LAL tonight.

kobe wants his team to be up 2-0 before going to 'Denver'

well anything can happen, just like in memphis. :)

gl!
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#10
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:39:31 PM
Line at my book now Nuggets +5.5 ... I wonder if I can get 6 if I wait a little while longer
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#11
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:40:08 PM
yea who on denver is gonna get past bynum and gasol? denver has no size
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#12
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:41:19 PM

Great write-up Kap, thanks for taking the time to share.  This type of information is simply invaluable to someone like myself, who doesn't follow the NBA very closely.

Much appreciated! 

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#13
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:44:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by buffalo11:

yea who on denver is gonna get past bynum and gasol? denver has no size


Well, getting past big men is usually accomplished by running the break, which appears to be Denver's plan. They have to know that they will get killed inside if it becomes a half court game, and I know they are concerned about Bynum's ability to block shots. I think they have their track shoes on this game in hopes of avoiding a game 1 repeat.

Don't get me wrong, DEN could lose this game by 20 if they have another cold shooting night or just cannot execute efficiently. I think all signs point to them bouncing back though tonight. Wager at your own risk as always
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#14
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:46:45 PM
Great writeup, but i just can't go against Kobe in playoffs at home, Denver is not near Dallas from last year to win this...

... from watching 1st game it was clear to me that Denver really have no answer for Bynum & Gasol,

... and i must say that Lakers have control of game from start to finish and that they didn't even play at  full speed,  today they will because Kobe knowes importance of  2nd game at home...

I will be betting Lakers ML, so lets Lakers win with 1 and we both win







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#15
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:06:56 PM
Great write up but I have to disagree with your box score tell. The nuggets shot 35% from the field and took 14  3s if they really were taking the ball to the rim this would have reflected more in the fg% because at least 12 shot attempts that led to those 27 free throw didn't count towards the percentage. They took  15 shots to the rim that got blocked. But what about the othe 75. Lawson wasn't being aggressive and he and Miller are the only penetrators on the team. The nuggets are the jump shooting team and have been all yr. That ref angle is scary I rarely buy into that type of stuff. But those numbers are hard to refute.
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#16
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:07:14 PM

Nice writeup Kap.  I agree with most of your points but I do have stuff to add to a couple:

Jordan Hill - It's not like he is expected to go out and hit mid-range shots and score double digits.  He is a hustle player that is in for rebounds and defense.  I would think that his role would be less likely affected than someone who is more of a scorer and shooter.  It's easier for your mind to get distracted and affect your shooting than it is your hustle.  If anything, it may make him want to prove people wrong and come out with a chip on his shoulder and play harder.

Lakers lack of aggressiveness in game 1 - The Lakers opened the game shooting well from 3 and took a nice lead in game 1 which led to Bynum never having to really get involved in the offense.  I think Bynum will be more involved tonight which will lead to more points in the paint and FTs for LAL.

Kobe shot poorly in game 1. His boxscore is a bit deceiving because he scored 15 points in the last 7 minutes of the game. He made 6 out of 8 shots during this stretch. So take away these numbers and Kobe shot 31% for the first 3 quarters with 16 points.  I will take the chances of Kobe improving on his shooting from game 1 than Lawson, Afflalo and Harrington.  Add in more touches for Bynum, who hits at a rate of 56%, and a Laker win seems to be the outcome in my opinion.

 

This line does seem to be tricky though but I am going to bite.  I took the Lakers for the series before game 1 at -200 and I am adding more to it at -315 today.  I am also on the spread and will include them in my ML parlay.  I just don't see how the Nuggets get past the Lakers size.  

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#17
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:10:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mance:

Great writeup, but i just can't go against Kobe in playoffs at home, Denver is not near Dallas from last year to win this...

... from watching 1st game it was clear to me that Denver really have no answer for Bynum & Gasol,

... and i must say that Lakers have control of game from start to finish and that they didn't even play at  full speed,  today they will because Kobe knowes importance of  2nd game at home...

I will be betting Lakers ML, so lets Lakers win with 1 and we both win

Bynum and Gasol wasnt the problem for den in this game they only combined for 23 pts  Nuggets have no answere for number 24 Lol.
I'm on the lakers as well let's get that money.






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#18
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:10:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Well, getting past big men is usually accomplished by running the break, which appears to be Denver's plan. They have to know that they will get killed inside if it becomes a half court game, and I know they are concerned about Bynum's ability to block shots. I think they have their track shoes on this game in hopes of avoiding a game 1 repeat.

Don't get me wrong, DEN could lose this game by 20 if they have another cold shooting night or just cannot execute efficiently. I think all signs point to them bouncing back though tonight. Wager at your own risk as always

 

Denver has to create turnovers or stop the Lakers from scoring in order to get out and run and I just don't see either happening.  The Lakers should shoot around 50% again tonight and the Nuggets only created 11 turnovers in game 1.

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#19
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:21:45 PM
I don't understand how Denver didn't get to play their game? Maybe because of better game planning by the lakers? Lakers are still gonna play their game and not let Denver try and run transition breaks...lakers are a bad matchup for Denver..I see another 10 digit win by the lakers tonight. It's the playoffs not regular season but good luck regardless
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#20
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:23:31 PM
To say what the lakers should shoot 50 % is baseless. It's very simple when you bet the lakers fellas. If they play D and get 20 pts off the bench they win every time. But seeing as we never know if that will happen til the game is over. It makes the Lakers a very risky bet. And this is comming from a avid Laker fan.

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#21
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:29:02 PM
amazing write up.  hope your wrong.  but the referee thing is startling!
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#22
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:31:20 PM
phenomenal write up.

The over is the play for me.


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#23
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:32:06 PM
after watching game 1, my basketball eyes told me to take LA in game 2; but after looking at those numbers, it's really hard to pick a side.
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#24
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:39:52 PM
great write up and great discussion...however i should go with lakers on this one, they will use their size advantage really well...
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#25
Posted: 5/1/2012 2:03:41 PM
Maybe GK will get the whistles he's been hoping for tonight .. I'll take denver because of the sketch line
Posted using a mobile device.
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