Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:
Chicago v. Philly Miami v. New York Indiana v. Orlando Boston v. Atlanta
San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix Oklahoma City v. Dallas Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis
Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:
Chicago v. Philly Miami v. New York Indiana v. Orlando Boston v. Atlanta
San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix Oklahoma City v. Dallas Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis
Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
I'd be very interested in taking the Pacers, no matter the price I'm paying. I'll probably put some on a Pacers sweep, actually. Unless Magic have a great 3 point shooting night, that series will be a destruction.
I'd also be all over Atlanta if I was getting +260. I doubt the price is that high though.
I'll be fading the Lakers in the 1st round, and I'd shit myself if I got that price on their opponent. That's way off though. No way the Lakers are laying that number.
Clippers and Grizz will be an awesome series too. Gunna sit back and just watch, although I've been high on the Grizz all year.
I'd be very interested in taking the Pacers, no matter the price I'm paying. I'll probably put some on a Pacers sweep, actually. Unless Magic have a great 3 point shooting night, that series will be a destruction.
I'd also be all over Atlanta if I was getting +260. I doubt the price is that high though.
I'll be fading the Lakers in the 1st round, and I'd shit myself if I got that price on their opponent. That's way off though. No way the Lakers are laying that number.
Clippers and Grizz will be an awesome series too. Gunna sit back and just watch, although I've been high on the Grizz all year.
bulls-8 vs sixers = bulls in 5 or 6games
heat-6 vs knicks = heat in 5games
pacers-5 vs magic = pacers in 5games
celtics-6 vs hawks = celtics in 6 or 7games
2nd round
bulls-5 vs celtics = bulls in 6 or 7games
heat-7 vs pacers = heat in 5 or 6games
east finals
bulls-4 vs heat = heat in 5 or 6games
1st round
spurs-8 vs suns or jazz = spurs in 5 or 6games
thunder-7 vs mavs = mavs in 6games
lakers-7 vs nugets = lakers in 6games
clippers-4 vs grizz = grizz in 6games
2nd round
spurs-6 vs grizz = spurs in 4 or 5games
lakers-6 vs mavs = mavs in 5 or 6games
bulls-8 vs sixers = bulls in 5 or 6games
heat-6 vs knicks = heat in 5games
pacers-5 vs magic = pacers in 5games
celtics-6 vs hawks = celtics in 6 or 7games
2nd round
bulls-5 vs celtics = bulls in 6 or 7games
heat-7 vs pacers = heat in 5 or 6games
east finals
bulls-4 vs heat = heat in 5 or 6games
1st round
spurs-8 vs suns or jazz = spurs in 5 or 6games
thunder-7 vs mavs = mavs in 6games
lakers-7 vs nugets = lakers in 6games
clippers-4 vs grizz = grizz in 6games
2nd round
spurs-6 vs grizz = spurs in 4 or 5games
lakers-6 vs mavs = mavs in 5 or 6games
i would guess Boston -160/Atlanta +140 and LA Clippers -150/Memphis +130. Could be wrong but i think lines should be a bit tighter for #4 vs #5 matchups.
i would guess Boston -160/Atlanta +140 and LA Clippers -150/Memphis +130. Could be wrong but i think lines should be a bit tighter for #4 vs #5 matchups.
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580) Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275) Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
I'd make Chicago more like -1000 to -1200. Miami is an interesting one, a lot of NYers are going to bet their team, but the books would be delighted if Miami lost with all the futures money on the. I'd make Miami around -480 i think. Indiana is a hot team and no one is looking to bet Orlando. Indy -600 IMO. I wouldn't make Boston as big a favorite - Boston -240
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425) Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500) Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
San Antonio has to be around -1100 with all their depth, home court and losing LY as a 1 seed. OKC I'd put at -420. Dallas has a chance if Marion can slow down KD. Lakers have a lot of backers, Your line could be accurate, but I'd take Denver if I could get +500. Clippers/Memphis IMO will be more like Clips -140. That should be a great series.
The NHL is where the road teams have a great shot, but in the NBA it is the home teams that usually prevail. I saw a stat that had the road team in the NHL winning game 7 50% of the time, but in the NBA only 20%.
Anyways, good thread and thanks for posting your numbers...
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580) Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275) Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
I'd make Chicago more like -1000 to -1200. Miami is an interesting one, a lot of NYers are going to bet their team, but the books would be delighted if Miami lost with all the futures money on the. I'd make Miami around -480 i think. Indiana is a hot team and no one is looking to bet Orlando. Indy -600 IMO. I wouldn't make Boston as big a favorite - Boston -240
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425) Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500) Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
San Antonio has to be around -1100 with all their depth, home court and losing LY as a 1 seed. OKC I'd put at -420. Dallas has a chance if Marion can slow down KD. Lakers have a lot of backers, Your line could be accurate, but I'd take Denver if I could get +500. Clippers/Memphis IMO will be more like Clips -140. That should be a great series.
The NHL is where the road teams have a great shot, but in the NBA it is the home teams that usually prevail. I saw a stat that had the road team in the NHL winning game 7 50% of the time, but in the NBA only 20%.
Anyways, good thread and thanks for posting your numbers...
Also like Memphis as a 'dog (which presumably they will be). Clippers won't be making it out of the first round and Memphis with Z-Bo back is a definite sleeper.
Also like Memphis as a 'dog (which presumably they will be). Clippers won't be making it out of the first round and Memphis with Z-Bo back is a definite sleeper.
Clippers/Grizz I think it'll open at -115 for the Clips just cause of home court there's more than enough people who would be interested in the Grizz as they are a good team and trendy upset pick. Wouldn't be shocked if the line closed with the Grizz as favs after the line gets steamed.
I think if ATL is favoured Celts would be around -125 cause they are perceived to be the better team and they have all the vets.
I think the Heat would be around -550 and the Thunder around -450 when it's all said and done, but I like that you made this thread will chime in a little more down the road.
Clippers/Grizz I think it'll open at -115 for the Clips just cause of home court there's more than enough people who would be interested in the Grizz as they are a good team and trendy upset pick. Wouldn't be shocked if the line closed with the Grizz as favs after the line gets steamed.
I think if ATL is favoured Celts would be around -125 cause they are perceived to be the better team and they have all the vets.
I think the Heat would be around -550 and the Thunder around -450 when it's all said and done, but I like that you made this thread will chime in a little more down the road.
Also like Memphis as a 'dog (which presumably they will be). Clippers won't be making it out of the first round and Memphis with Z-Bo back is a definite sleeper.
I don't think people are giving the Clippers enough of a chance. I love watching the Grizz and they are legitimate but they have stunk in Staples against the Clippers and the Clippers have a top 5 closer in the game in Chris Paul and the length in the frontcourt to slow down great players in Z-Bo and Gasol. If Caron Butler is out I think the Grizz mop the floor cause Gay will chew up Nick Young, but if Butler is in I think the Clippers have a great shot at this and if the Grizz do win it'll be a long long series.
Also like Memphis as a 'dog (which presumably they will be). Clippers won't be making it out of the first round and Memphis with Z-Bo back is a definite sleeper.
I don't think people are giving the Clippers enough of a chance. I love watching the Grizz and they are legitimate but they have stunk in Staples against the Clippers and the Clippers have a top 5 closer in the game in Chris Paul and the length in the frontcourt to slow down great players in Z-Bo and Gasol. If Caron Butler is out I think the Grizz mop the floor cause Gay will chew up Nick Young, but if Butler is in I think the Clippers have a great shot at this and if the Grizz do win it'll be a long long series.
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580) Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275) Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
EAST CONFERENCE
My picks to 2ND ROUND are:
CHICAGO MIAMI ORLANDO ATLANTA San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425) Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500) Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580) Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275) Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
EAST CONFERENCE
My picks to 2ND ROUND are:
CHICAGO MIAMI ORLANDO ATLANTA San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425) Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500) Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
My thought process on the Clippers is that the only guy with real legit playoff experience is Paul -- even Caron didn't get any run during the Mavs title run last year. Paul is fantastic on his own, but the LAC will have SIGNIFICANT disadvantages in two areas that are absolutely CRUCIAL in the playoffs: (1) free throw shooting and (2) coaching adjustments. I expect MEM to have HUGE advantages in those areas.
My thought process on the Clippers is that the only guy with real legit playoff experience is Paul -- even Caron didn't get any run during the Mavs title run last year. Paul is fantastic on his own, but the LAC will have SIGNIFICANT disadvantages in two areas that are absolutely CRUCIAL in the playoffs: (1) free throw shooting and (2) coaching adjustments. I expect MEM to have HUGE advantages in those areas.
Winsnow.. You really think Orlando will beat the Pacers?
In my opinion all favs in the east win and Memphis beats the Clipps in the west. Cant wait till the eastern conference finals so the heat will be the underdog again and pound their series price. If I remember right it was around +250 last year
Winsnow.. You really think Orlando will beat the Pacers?
In my opinion all favs in the east win and Memphis beats the Clipps in the west. Cant wait till the eastern conference finals so the heat will be the underdog again and pound their series price. If I remember right it was around +250 last year
Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have around 30 games each.
Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year. Gay as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.
So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.
Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have around 30 games each.
Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year. Gay as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.
So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.
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